FROM THE FRONTLINES

A team’s desire to get even can have a sweet payoff for the astute bettor

By Jason Brough
BodogNation Contributing Writer

Much has been written about revenge games, the idea being that teams who have lost to a division rival earlier in the season will be especially motivated for the rematch. Thus, they are more likely to win outright or cover those games.

At this point in the season, many of these revenge games are being played and its prudent to examine whether or not this theory has any substance. Or, is it just another ploy by touts to sell picks?

For the purpose of this analysis, the results of each regular-season rematch from the 2004 NFL season were tallied. The findings were then divided amongst playoff teams and non-playoff teams. Here are the results:

Overall, NFL teams in 2004 went 26-20-2 (57 percent) against the spread (ATS) versus division rivals who had beaten them outright in the seasons first meeting. Last years 12 playoff teams went an unsuccessful 2-4-1 (33 percent) ATS in those situations. Non-playoff teams fared much better, going 24-16-1 (60 percent) ATS in revenge games.

Though only one season of data has been utilized, the findings certainly give bettors something to think about. First, why exactly did teams fare well ATS in revenge games last year? Was it as simple as teams being exceptionally motivated by revenge (and perhaps their opponents overlooking a team they had already beaten)? Also, why did non-playoff teams have such an impressive winning record ATS in revenge games, while the playoff teams had a losing record?

Obviously, one theory is that revenge (combined with complacency on the other side of the ball) is indeed a determining factor in the outcome of a game. Another is that it was all a coincidence.

However, might another possible answer be that bettors can read too much into the previous meetings and assume the same result will occur in the rematch? After all, games are often decided by one team getting the breaks or making the big play at the right time. And while making the big play is the sign of a good team, theres no doubt luck plays a part.

As always, investigate the facts before betting

Whats for certain is its important to research when wagering on revenge games and decide whether or not the victorious team in the first game was actually deserving of the win. Depending on what you discover, you might be able to find value in a line that has been influenced by bettors who are simply looking at past scores to justify their wagers. It's also possible you might end up backing a team that knows it was unlucky to lose the first time around and now has no intention of being setback again.

Steve McNair and the Titans are after the ultimate revenge - handing the Colts their first loss (AP Photos).

Regarding the records of playoff versus non-playoff teams in revenge games, a number of theories exist as to why playoff teams could be less likely to capitalize. One is that bettors are less apt to find value in lines involving good teams, at least as far as backing them is concerned. Linesmakers know if they don’t give good teams enough respect, the public is going to get behind them in a big way, even if they did lose to their opponent earlier in the season.

In fact, casual bettors are more likely to recognize a revenge game when the supposedly superior team has the most motivation. This is a good team and good teams dont make the same mistake twice, is the reasoning. In this case, the revenge theory could conceivably push the line to an unprofitable number for those looking to back the team seeking to get even.

Bettors also have to recognize that some playoff teams will already have clinched their spot and seed in the postseason when it comes time for rematches with division rivals. So while there might indeed be an opportunity for revenge, there is no real value in it so far as the big picture winning the Super Bowl goes. In other words, understand what each team is playing for.

If you think there might be something to the revenge theory, here are this weeks slate of games involving rematches with division rivals:

 

Bodog.com NFL Bet - Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET
Tennessee lost at home to Indianapolis 31-10 in Week 4 with Peyton Manning throwing four touchdowns. The Titans were 1-2 ATS avenging home losses last season.

Bodog.com NFL Bet - Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET
Minnesota beat Detroit 27-14 in Minneapolis in Week 9. The Lions were 1-0 ATS avenging road losses last season, with that one outcome coming in a spread-covering home loss to the Vikings.

Bodog.com NFL Bet - Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET
Dallas eked out a 16-13 overtime win at home over New York in Week 6. The Giants were 0-1 ATS avenging road losses last year.

Bodog.com NFL Bet - Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET
Buffalo beat Miami 20-14 at home in Week 5. The Dolphins were 1-1 ATS avenging road losses in 2004, with the loss coming to the Bills.

Bodog.com NFL Bet - Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 27-13 in Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Bengals were 1-1 ATS avenging road losses in 2004, with the loss coming to the Steelers.

Bodog.com NFL Bet - Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 1 p.m. ET
Arizona won 31-14 at home over San Francisco in Week 4. The 49ers were 0-1 ATS avenging road losses in 2004.

Bodog.com NFL Bet - Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:15 p.m. ET
The Broncos beat Kansas City 30-10 in Denver in Week 3. The Chiefs were 1-0 ATS avenging road losses in 2004, with the win coming over the Broncos.

Bodog.com NFL Bet - Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers, 8:30 p.m. ET
San Diego beat the Raiders 27-14 in Oakland in Week 6. The Raiders were 2-0 ATS avenging home losses in 2004.

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