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- Issue #103 - The Death of Power Baseball
Rob Gillespie,
President of Bodog
Sportsbook, Casino and Poker, has been involved
in sports wagering and gambling since he was a young
child. Whether it was playing five-card stud with
his dad's Navy buddies or running a sportsbook out
of his high school locker, Gillespie has always
had a knack for the gambling game. Exclusive
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FROM THE FRONTLINES Issue #103:
THE DEATH OF POWER BASEBALL?
By Rob Gillespie
There has been a lot of media coverage on the
drop-off in home runs this season and I was curious
to see how this has affected wagering. As I dug
into the numbers, I found a couple of other surprises
that I hope will make for an enlightening (and
profitable) read.
I'll start with the numbers on baseball this
year versus last:
There has been a lot of media coverage on the drop-off in home runs this season
and I was curious to see how this has affected wagering.
As I dug into the numbers, I found a couple of other
surprises that I hope will make for an enlightening
(and profitable) read.
I'll start with the numbers on baseball this year
versus last:
| |
2004 |
2005 (Projected) |
Variance |
| Games |
2,428 |
2,430 |
+0.1% |
| Runs |
23,376 |
22,565 |
-3.5% |
| At Bats |
167,336 |
166,049 |
-0.8% |
| Batting Avg. |
.266 |
.266 |
0.0% |
| Hits |
44,513 |
44,123 |
-0.9% |
| Doubles |
8,905 |
8,922 |
+0.2% |
| Triples |
898 |
926 |
+3.1% |
| Home Runs |
5,451 |
4,973 |
-8.8% |
| Walks |
16,224 |
15,267 |
-5.9% |
| Strikeouts |
31,823 |
30,412 |
-4.4% |
Some numbers, like At Bats and Hits vary by less
than 1%, but others have been more volatile:
- Triples, up 3.1% in 2005.
- Runs, down 3.5% in 2005 (from 9.63 runs/game
to 9.29 runs/game).
- Strikeouts are on pace to be more than 1,400
fewer! That is a drop of 4.4%.
- Walks are on pace to be just under a thousand
fewer than last year. That is a drop of 5.9%.
- And last but not least, we are on pace for 478
fewer Home Runs, which would be a decline of a
whopping 8.8%!
So why are we seeing these variances?
The clamp down on steroid use should certainly
be considered as the prime reason homers are down.
Perhaps some balls that might have been home runs
last year are staying in the park this year. Could
that also be why doubles and triples are up? Maybe
formerly juiced-up outfielders have lost the legs
to track down the balls that formerly juiced-up
hitters are no longer putting over the fence?
To me, the decline in Strikeouts also seems to
support the steroid hypothesis. Let me explain my
thinking.
Fewer walks means pitchers are more accurate or
batters are less picky (or that Barry Bonds isn't
playing). But batting averages aren't down - in
fact, they're exactly the same - so that means batters
aren't any pickier than last year. What else could
lead to fewer walks and fewer strikeouts? Less power
from pitchers fills that bill. Ex-juiced pitchers
will now have a fastball that is a mile or two slower
(or perhaps even more), and that decline in velocity
forces them to move from a power game to a control
game. So instead of ringing up the K's, they're
racking up the grounders and pop-ups.
Okay, so what does this all mean to a baseball
bettor? First, fewer runs means lower totals. The
data bears that out in betting terms as well as
runs. Last year, 1,171 games went over the total,
1,174 went under and 83 were pushes. So 50.1% of
games with a decision on the total were under.
This year, the under percentage has jumped to
52.8%, with 578 games going over and 646 going under.
This has been good for our book with a 40% jump
in the hold percentage on baseball totals this season.
It also means that it has been a good season for
anyone who bets the under a lot.
Now, if only tougher steroid rules in the NFL
could keep Chiefs' games under 50 points. Probably
not, but I can dream...
The enjoyment of your wagering experience with
us is my number one priority. Should you have any
questions, concerns, or comments, I will personally
ensure you are satisfied with your Bodog experience.
Enjoy your summers!
The Bodog
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sports!
The enjoyment of your wagering experience with us is my number one priority. Should you have any questions, concerns, or comments, I will personally ensure you are satisfied with your Bodog experience.
Good luck with your wagers!
[email protected]
Rob Gillespie
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Please feel free to email me ([email protected])
or the guys at WagerOnFootball.com
with any questions you want answered and I assure
you they will have a good chance of making the column
(or a subsequent one) as I plan on making this a
monthly column. On behalf of me, my family, and
the entire WagerOnFootball.com & Bodog team,
have a great week everyone.
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