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Friday January 14th, 2005 Page updated at 8:20am
By:
David
Bachman
Fantasy
Football Editor For WagerOnFootball.com
Top 50 cont...
Talent
You can't deny
a player's inherent ability: The quarterback with
pinpoint control and particularly adept at throwing
the deep ball, the running back who possesses great
speed and can break tackles, or the receiver with
excellent hands and route-running skills. For the
fantasy owner, this means keeping tabs on the scouting
reports, regularly watching the players in action
and closely examining the numbers. If a player loses
a step in a given year -- for example, Marshall
Faulk's sudden lack of burst in the season's final
weeks is a telltale warning sign -- that's something
you need to consider. Remember, the players with
the best talent are the ones you'll frequently find
atop the league leaders, year after year, the Daunte
Culpeppers, LaDainian Tomlinsons and Marvin Harrisons.
Age
It's one of the most important factors to consider
in a keeper, but it's not THE most important one.
A lot of owners get caught up in a player's age
and base their keeper decisions with this as the
foremost criteria, almost as if you should always
retain the 25-year-old and dump the 35-year-old.
But remember that we've just finished a year in
which Curtis Martin, at age 31, became the oldest
player to lead the league in rushing yards, while
Travis Henry, age 26, was one of the game's biggest
busts. It's only natural to think that a football
player generally breaks into the league in his early
20s, reaches his peak between 25 and 29, and begins
the slow fade into the sunset by age 30. There are
exceptions, of course, so don't take that as the
be-all, end-all.
Two trends to consider: 1. Running
backs generally begin to show signs of wear and
tear either after age 30, after five years as a
team's primary runner or once they become susceptible
to frequent injuries. All of the three is a huge
red flag, which is the primary reason I think Priest
Holmes should not be anyone's No. 1 pick entering
2005, nor is he anywhere near the elite keeper he
might seem. 2. Wide receivers tend to break out
offensively after about two-and-a-half to three
years in the NFL, provided they've actually gotten
plays in their teams' receiving game during that
time. Think Santana Moss and Javon Walker the past
two seasons; Anquan Boldin, Nate Burleson and Andre
Johnson in 2005.
Upside
First off, this should not be confused with talent.
"Upside" has become somewhat of a catch
phrase in fantasy sports, so it's only natural that
some owners have slipped into the habit of assuming
that it goes hand in hand with the age progression,
as if a player is naturally expected to reach his
fabled upside just because he's now 25, 26 or 27.
Folks, upside is merely a player's potential to
perform up to his highest talent level, and it's
hardly reliant merely on age. Simply put, some players
have it, and some don't.
For instance, Reuben Droughns will
turn 27 next August and could be starting his second
season as the Broncos' primary runner. Does he strike
you as an upside guy? No, everyone says Tatum Bell
is the Denver RB who has it. There's a good reason
for that: Droughns is more of a journeyman, now
with his third organization, while Bell is the speedier
runner and the one that seems destined for greatness
down the road. Keep in mind that there's a reason
scouts rave about players like Bell, or Carson Palmer,
or Byron Leftwich, or Larry Fitzgerald; it's because
they have explosive potential that has the opportunity
to someday be realized. Yes, some players never
reach their true potential, but the ones with the
best chance at doing so are usually the ones who
tantalized the scouts most. Palmer's a great example
of a guy who needed time to get comfortable in the
NFL, and now it's clear he's a great keeper. And
he was a No. 1 overall pick, which shows why success
isn't always immediate.
Opportunity
This one goes without saying. If a player isn't
even going to start for his team, why should you
expect him to be a fantasy success? Yes, many sleepers
have emerged by beginning a season as a backup,
but when you're making important keeper decisions,
you need to take the guys who will get playing time
first and the ones that have to earn it second,
barring an overwhelming difference in all of the
three aforementioned factors.
For example, Larry Johnson has a chance at really
being something special, but if Holmes is healthy,
it's going to be his job, not Johnson's. The same
thing holds true for Travis Henry, Nick Goings,
T.J. Duckett, or Keary Colbert or even Philip Rivers.
None of those guys, as things stand today, is guaranteed
a starting job for 2005, meaning their keeper value
is limited. This goes hand-in-hand with "Tip
No. 2" from earlier, because offseason changes
have a way of robbing certain players of value,
while giving worth to others. If Henry gets traded
to, say, Arizona, Miami or Minnesota, places where
he almost surely would start, then all of a sudden
he's worth keeper consideration.
Health. Injuries are another red flag. Few things
are more frustrating than losing a key player to
injury, especially if you invested a valuable keeper
spot on him. The healthier a player is, the better
a keeper he becomes. Take it from the doctors --
once a player starts developing nagging ailments,
the probability of them recurring only increases
with time. With the possible exception of broken
bones or cartilage tears easily replaced by surgery
-- both of which take considerable recovery time,
incidentally, making them risks in the short-term
-- it's best to avoid players with significant health
issues in their past.
Most especially, steer clear of running backs or
wide receivers with chronic foot, knee, ankle or
hamstring issues, or quarterbacks with shoulder
or arm woes. I'm rather worried about Chris Brown's
toe, Chad Pennington's shoulder and Plaxico Burress'
hamstring, because those three players are beginning
to earn a reputation for being injury prone. I'll
take that into account when comparing them against
my other keeper choices.
Final Thoughts
Avoid inexperienced quarterbacks. Even if San Diego
lets Brees leave as a free agent and hands the job
to Rivers, we're talking about effectively a "rookie"
quarterback handling the chores for the Chargers
in 2005. We all know about the length of the learning
curve at that particular position, but here's a
reminder: Peyton Manning had a 26-to-28 TD-to-interception
ratio in his first year as a starting NFL quarterback,
Palmer 18-to-18, Brees 17-to-16. I'd be wary of
expecting big things in 2005 from Rivers, Eli Manning
and maybe even Ben Roethlisberger, because they're
going to make some mistakes and still need time
to get fully comfortable. They're better long-term
keepers; Palmer and Brees are the better choices
for 2005, because they've had more time to develop.
Keep two RBs
If at all possible. Unless this means you'll be
forced to retain a risky part-timer like Antowain
Smith, Onterrio Smith or Duce Staley, it's imperative
that you retain two top-quality running backs. It's
the toughest position to fill, and you can count
on your counterparts following the same strategy
based on the impact these players provide. I know
Martin, Tiki Barber, Fred Taylor and Ahman Green
might not seem like exciting keepers when you're
looking at other teams getting to keep guys like
McGahee, Julius Jones or Kevin Jones, but it would
be an outright shock if they don't enter 2005 as
their teams' primary runners. Remember, winning
next year is the most important thing, and what
you want are starters. I'd take all four of those
veterans over alternatives like Thomas Jones or
Nick Goings, or second- or third-tier players at
other positions like Rod Smith, Hines Ward, Jake
Delhomme or Aaron Brooks.
Try to steer clear of wide receivers. Receivers
are rather unpredictable, with only Harrison, Torry
Holt, Joe Horn, Owens and Randy Moss ranking among
the league leaders on a consistent basis the past
several seasons. Throw in Walker, Tony Gonzalez
and Antonio Gates among tight ends and MAYBE Chad
Johnson and Reggie Wayne, and that's about the extent
of receivers I'd hold over in a three-keeper format.
Don't worry if you let go of a quality receiver
in the process; there are always a handful of breakout
players at the position available in the draft.
(In a larger league, of course, you could extend
that list a little further, but the emphasis here
is not to go crazy keeping receivers.)
Have a Great Week.
Check out the Fantasy Football page for this weeks
NFL fantasy player rankings, studs & duds, who's
Hot and who's NOT, as well as the NFL fantasy football
waiver wire.
Try out our NFL Sportsbooks in the Review, and
have a good offseason everyone. Dave B. Write
Me.
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