WEEK 16 PICKS

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Please note the ongoing change to this column, as there are now six weekly picks. The four in this article, and one each in the “Reader Pick Of The Week” and the “Monday Night Football” columns. The results for all six will be posted here each week.

It is embarrassing to say, but Week 15 selections (4-2 overall) were the first good week in quite awhile. This column hopes to continue its ascent from the abyss, and significantly boost the 28-35 yearly mark.

The first win of the week was the home NY Giants giving 2.5 points to Kansas City, and winning 27-17. The Chiefs had a good chance to win this game, especially with getting 167 rushing yards from running back, Larry Johnson. However, Giants’ back, Tiki Barber rushed for 220 yards as the Chiefs’ defense did a horrible job of tackling all game.

The second win of the week was Pittsburgh giving three points at Minnesota, and winning 18-3. This was another game where the final score should have been a lot closer. The Vikings drove inside the Steelers’ 20 yard line four times, and only ended up with a measly field goal. The loss ended Minnesota’s six game winning streak.

The third win of the week was Chicago giving three points to Atlanta, and winning 16-3. The game was played in temperatures in the single digits, and the wind chill factor was below zero. It was only a 6-3 lead at halftime, but Bear’s quarterback, Rex Grossman came into the game and sparked the team to a comfortable win.

The fourth win of the week was Baltimore giving 3.5 points to Green Bay on Monday Night Football. The Ravens had played very competitively the last few weeks, and Green Bay had also been giving an honest effort. That all changed for the Packers in this game, as they mailed it in from start to finish. The carnage finally ended with 48-3 Baltimore blowout.

The first loss of the week was Arizona giving 1.5 points to Houston and losing 30-19. Arizona quarterback, Kurt Warner left the game in the second quarter after going 10-10 passing for 115 yards. The score was 10-7 Arizona at that point, and they promptly got blown out 23-9 the rest of the way.

The second loss of the week was Dallas getting 2.5 points at Washington, and losing 35-7. Dallas quarterback, Drew Bledsoe threw an interception to start the game, and it seemed to take all the wind out of their sails. Washington now has the inside track at a playoff position, while Dallas needs to win out, and get some help.

Bet Now: Tennessee (+5.5) at Miami

Miami’s 24-20 win over the Jets gives them a four game winning streak, and a 7-7 record on the season. That is a good comeback considering that they lost six out of seven games in a stretch from October to November. The Dolphins are 4-3 at home this year, but have not covered the spread at home in their last five games.

The Dolphins are facing big injury questions this week. There is good chance that both quarterback Gus Frerotte and running back, Ronnie Brown will miss this game. Ricky Williams is a good backup for Brown, but it hurts their depth at the position. Quarterback, Sage Rosenfels is a below average substitute at quarterback if he gets the start.

Tennessee is 4-10 after a 28-24 loss to Seattle. Tennessee quarterback, Steve McNair threw for 310 yards and two touchdowns in the defeat. The Seahawks were up 14-0 in the first quarter, and Tennessee easily could have mailed it in against the best in the NFC conference. Instead, the Titans fought to the end, a good signal about how they will play this week.

The Titans would love to get a consistent running game going with Chris Brown. The problem is that Brown has not had a 100 yard rushing game all season, and his 3.8 yards per carry is way down from last year. That means the burden will once again fall on the shoulders of McNair and his underrated set of receivers and tight ends.

You have to give Miami and Coach Nick Saban a lot of credit for hanging tough when their team was 3-7. Tennessee is another team with a demanding coach in Jeff Fisher, who will make sure his squad plays hard for all 16 games. Tennessee has enough offensive weapons to keep this game close, especially considering Miami’s injury situation.

Pick: Tennessee

Bet Now: Indianapolis (+7.5) at Seattle

Indianapolis is 13-1 after their stunning home loss to San Diego. In a way, the game was a blessing, as they no longer have to play their starters in a quest to go 16-0. The downside to that comes in this game, where Indy will sit a lot of the team. The current player situation is this: Marvin Harrison might not play at all, and Peyton Manning should play only part of the game.

Jim Sorgi is Manning’s backup, and he is no Peyton Manning, or Eli Manning, or maybe even the other Manning brother that never made it past high school ball. Linebacker, Cato June and offensive tackle, Ryan Diem are definitely out. Safety Bob Sanders, and defensive linemen, Dwight Freeney, Corey Simon and Robert Mathis may also miss this game.

Seattle is 12-2 on the year after a 28-24 win at Tennessee. The win clinched a first round bye in the playoffs, but they still need one more win, or a Chicago loss, to wrap up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Seattle will be taking this game very seriously so they can rest next week at Green Bay.

The Seahawks have been a dominant team at home this year, going 7-0, while averaging 30 points per game. They did have a couple of scares against Dallas and the Giants, but they were able to pull them out like good teams do. Going undefeated at home for the year is a source of pride for the players, and extra motivation.

There is a good chance that this game is a preview of this year’s Super Bowl in Detroit. It would obviously be a much better game if both teams needed a win, but it is still better than watching Arizona against Philadelphia. The prediction here is that Seattle gets a double digit win over a team that is more concerned about staying healthy.

Pick: Seattle

Bet Now: NY Giants (+3) at Washington

The Giants are 10-4 and still hoping to win the NFC East and a first round bye in the playoffs. They are also hoping to get back left tackle, Luke Petitgout this week. Right tackle, Kareem McKenzie is not expected back from his hamstring injury. Also, linebacker, Carlos Emmons is out with a pectoral muscle and linebacker, Antonio Pierce is questionable with an ankle sprain.

Quarterback, Eli Manning is putting up some good yardage numbers, but he has thrown six interceptions in the last three weeks, and has looked shaky in the fourth quarter. The Giants did win those three games, but that was due more to the spectacular play of running back, Tiki Barber. If Manning folds under the pressure of Washington’s blitzing defense, they definitely lose this week.

Washington (8-6) played a tremendous game against Dallas, winning 35-7. They beat the Cowboys offensively, defensively, specials teams, and even out-coaching Bill Parcells. Washington is in a four way tie for the last NFC playoff spot, but if they win their last two games against New York and Philadelphia, then they are in.

While quarterback, Mark Brunell had a very good game versus Dallas, the best game-plan against the Giants is a large dose of running back Clinton Portis. Portis has rushed for 100 yards the last three weeks, and he is looking for more against a makeshift Giants’ linebacker core. The downside to that plan is that guard Randy Thomas is out for the year, and is being replaced by 43 year-old Ray Brown.

This is the second meeting between these two teams, as the Giants absolutely whipped the Redskins, 36-0 in Week 8. Washington is of course looking for revenge, but more important to the outcome is the way both teams are playing right now. Washington is playing inspired football, and their defense and running game will carry them to a home win.

Pick: Washington

Bet Now: Minnesota (+3) at Baltimore

Baltimore is 5-9 after their 48-3 demolishing of Green Bay. The question that comes out of this game is whether the Ravens are really that good, or are the Packers really that bad? The answer is that Baltimore was extremely motivated to play at home on Monday Night Football, and yes, the Packers are pathetic.

Ravens’ quarterback, Kyle Boller had one of the best games of his career against Green Bay, throwing for over 250 yards with three touchdowns. He also didn’t throw any picks, just the second time he has done that in six games. There are a lot of people who question whether Boller is capable of having two good games in a row, this column is one of them.

Minnesota is 8-6 after an 18-3 loss to Pittsburgh, a game in which turnovers were a big factor. The Vikings are now in a four way tie with Atlanta, Dallas and Washington for the last Wild Card spot in the NFC. Before the Pittsburgh defeat, Minnesota had reeled off six wins in a row by playing solid defense, and an efficient offense led by quarterback Brad Johnson.

The Baltimore defense is a very aggressive unit that will play with extra emotion on Sunday Night. Vikings’ running back, Michael Bennett will not have initial success against the Baltimore front seven. Johnson must soften up the defense by spreading the ball around to his wide array of receivers, and force Baltimore to only put seven men in the box.

The fact that an 8-6 team is getting three points from a 5-9 team, is all you need to know about this game. Minnesota’s 15 point loss to Pittsburgh, combined with Baltimore’s blowout of woeful Green Bay, is carrying over to this spread. Look for Minnesota to bounce back on the road on Sunday Night as Baltimore comes back down to earth.

Pick: Minnesota

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