WEEK 14 PICKS

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There is a slight change to the column this week, as there are now six weekly picks. The four in this article, and one each in the “Reader Pick Of the Week” and the “Monday Night Football” columns. The results for all six will be posted here each week.

The first loss of the week was Pittsburgh giving three points to Cincinnati and losing 38-31. Pittsburgh needed this win to stay in the division race, and it was thought that the home crowd would propel them to a win. Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger played this game with a bad thumb and still put up big numbers, but the Bengals proved they were the better team.

The second loss of the week was Dallas getting 3 points from the Giants, and losing 17-10. This looked to be a really close game, with either team capable of getting the “W”. In those cases, it makes sense to take the points. It ended up being a close game, but Dallas was not able to make the big play in the 4th quarter when it counted.

The third loss of the week was Miami giving 3.5 points to Buffalo, and winning 24-23. This was a really strange game. Buffalo jumped out to a 21-0 lead after three J.P. Losman to Lee Evans touchdown passes. Miami then stormed back in the 4th quarter to score three touchdowns of their own, and they had the victory but not the cover.

The fourth loss of the week was Atlanta getting three points from Carolina, and losing 24-6. Atlanta quarterback, Michael Vick had a 5-0 career mark against the Panthers heading into this game. It didn’t matter though, as Carolina kept Vick in the pocket all game long, where he is less dangerous, and this game was never really in doubt.

The first win of the week was Chicago giving seven points to Green Bay, and winning 19-7. This game was a lot closer than the score indicates, with Green Bay accumulating far more yardage, and trailing 9-7 in the fourth quarter. Alas, the Packers self destructed as usual, and Chicago scored 10 points in the final quarter for the cover.

The second win of the week was Seattle giving 3.5 points to Philadelphia on Monday Night Football. Mike McMahon started at quarterback for the Eagles, but it might as well have been WWF founder, Vince McMahon. McMahon threw two interceptions that were returned for Seattle touchdowns and the rout was on. Seattle ended up winning 42-0.

FOOTBALL Bet Now: Chicago (+5.5) at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is 7-5 after a 38-31 loss to Cincinnati. The game dropped the Steelers two games behind in the division race, which means they need to start focusing on the Wild Card. Pittsburgh has also lost three games in a row, and continues to play poorly at home. There they have a 3-3 record straight up, and 2-4 against the spread (ATS).

Quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger had a great game against Cincinnati throwing for 386 yards despite having an injured thumb. The Steelers problem is that their defense has been falling apart the last few weeks, and their running game is no longer dominant. Roethlisberger is listed as probable this week despite his injured right thumb.

Chicago is 9-3 after a 19-7 home win over Green Bay. The Bears were able to win this game despite rookie quarterback, Kyle Orton only throwing for 68 yards. They were also out-gained by the Packers, 358 to 190 in total yardage. The team has now won eight games in a row, with a 6-1-1 record ATS.

The Bears will continue to limit Orton’s plays down the field in this game. Instead, they will rely on running back Thomas Jones, and a defense that is only giving up 10.6 points per game. The next closest defense in the NFL this year is Indianapolis at 13.3 points per game. It also beats the 1985 Super Bowl Bears, who gave up over 12 points per game.

Pittsburgh is the more desperate team in this game, but Chicago is fighting for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. One of these weeks, Chicago is going to come across an offense that their defense can not handle, but the Bears will be able to control Pittsburgh enough to keep this game within the spread.

Pick: Chicago

FOOTBALL Bet Now: Indianapolis (-8) at Jacksonville

Indianapolis is 12-0 on the year after a 35-3 drubbing of Tennessee. The Colts are trying to become the first team in NFL history to go 16-0. The 1972 Miami Dolphins went 14-0 on their way to winning the Super Bowl. Of course, the ultimate goal is winning the Super Bowl, so the Colts may rest some of their starters in the last couple of games.

In this contest, the Colts will be going full throttle, a dangerous proposition for Jacksonville. Their offense is averaging over 30 points per game, with the passing and running game working in perfect sync. The Jacksonville defense has been stingy this year at 16.8 points allowed, so something has to give.

Jacksonville is 9-3, and 4-1 at home this year. They are on a five game winning streak with wins over Cleveland, Arizona, Tennessee, Baltimore, and Houston. Those teams may only be a combined 16-44 on the season, but you can only play who is on the schedule. This will be the Jaguars biggest test by far, since a Week 6 win at Pittsburgh.

Jacksonville’s streak is very impressive considering the key injuries they have suffered. David Garrard is in at quarterback for Byron Leftwich, and he has played just average overall. Running back, Fred Taylor has missed the last two games with an ankle injury. He is questionable this week, and the team needs his explosiveness against a very fast Colts’ defense.

Indianapolis has had trouble with Jacksonville in the past. They only beat them 10-3 at home earlier this year, a game where they were favored by 8.5 points. They also split the prior four meetings. That being said, this Colts team is on a historical march, and the Jaguars will not be able to match points with them without Leftwich.

Pick: Indianapolis

FOOTBALL Bet Now: NY Giants (-8) at Philadelphia

Philadelphia is 4-8 after an embarrassing 42-0 loss to Seattle. It was the worst shutout loss in the history of Monday Night Football. Eagles’ quarterbacks, Mike McMahon and Koy Detmer each threw two interceptions. The two picks by McMahon were returned for touchdowns, and Seattle also had a fumble recovery for a score.

For the Eagles, the news just keeps getting worse. Running back Brian Westbrook is out for the year after suffering a foot injury. Rookie, Ryan Moats is the most likely replacement, which is a major downgrade. Coach Andy Reid has also not decided whether to start McMahon or Detmer at quarterback, with neither being an exciting option.

The Giants are 8-4 after a 17-10 win over Dallas. The victory gave them sole possession over first place in the NFC East, and avenged an earlier season loss to the Cowboys. Kicker, Jay Feely missed another field goal that could have iced the game, and the Giants have to be a little concerned about his mental condition going forward.

While New York should not have a lot of problems with Philly’s battered offense, they need to start playing better on the road. The Giants’ road mark is listed at 2-3, but only because their home game against New Orleans counted as an away game. The only real road win the team has had all year was 24-6 at San Francisco five weeks ago.

Normally when a team has as bad a loss as Philly, the team comes out playing hard the next week. The loss of Westbrook though, in addition to already losing Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens, could be enough to throw this team over the edge. Look for the Giants to take care of business even in the hostile environment.

Pick: NY Giants

FOOTBALL Bet Now: Washington (-4) at Arizona

Washington (6-6) is coming off a 24-9 win over St. Louis. Even though the Redskins are technically alive for the playoffs, they really blew their chance in Week’s 11 and 12, with heartbreaking home losses to Oakland and San Diego. Still, this is a team with a lot of pride, and they will fight to the end with head coach, Joe Gibbs.

The Redskins offensive game-plan this week is Clinton Portis, Clinton Portis, and some more Clinton Portis. Portis is having a bounce-back year, already going over the 1,000 yard mark for the season. He should get 25 carries this week as Washington tries to control the clock, and grind out yards against a below average Arizona run defense.

Arizona is 4-8 after a 17-10 win at San Francisco. Quarterback, Kurt Warner threw for 354 yards, the fourth time in five games that he has broken the 300 yard mark. While the passing attack has been exceptional lately, the running game is a joke. The team has not had a player rush for more than 59 yards in any single game.

Unfortunately, more picks did not mean better results last week. The column continues to be running uphill with a 2-4 record and a 22-31 yearly mark.

Washington knows that Arizona will not be able to run the ball on them. Look for the Redskins to be in nickel pass coverage even on first down, in an attempt to slow Warner down. If Warner is careless with the ball and throws interceptions, Washington will be in business. Warner did throw two picks last week, but only one in the three games before that.

Washington is trying to keep their season alive in this game, but Arizona is also going to fight hard, as that is the track record of Coach Dennis Green. The Redskins are going to try to win this game on the ground, which means using the clock. That fact combined with Arizona’s quick strike passing offense, suggests a close competitive game.

Pick: Arizona

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