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"THE EDGE"
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This is the second in a series
of articles where a VIP Sports Edge reader will
pick a game against the spread, with further
analysis from VIP’s Michael Robinson.
If you would like to participate in a future
article, please contact [email protected].
Bet Now: Green Bay (+7)
at Chicago
Michael L. (Roseville,
California): Pick Chicago
The one thing we know for sure
about this game is that this is not your father’s
Green Bay Packers. The Packers (2-9) turn the
ball over more than other team in the NFL. Quarterback,
Brett Favre has thrown a league high, 19 interceptions,
and their -11 turnover differential is the second
worst in the NFC.
Green Bay’s carelessness
with the ball plays into the hands of Chicago,
one of the most high-powered defensive teams
in the league. The Bears have 24 takeaways on
the year, good for 4th in the NFC, and those
numbers have a good chance of going up exponentially
this week.
On offense for Chicago, they
do not have an explosive passing attack, but
when you can play defense, and the run the ball
like they can, you do not need one. The Bears'
rushing average is 4.4 yards per carry, and
they should be able to run at will against the
Packers this week.
In summation, these Bears will
certainly not be in hibernation this Sunday.
Chicago is riding a seven game wining streak,
and they are 3-0 in NFC North division play.
Smart money says the Bears win by more then
a touchdown.
Michael Robinson (VIP
Sports): Pick Chicago
Thank you for your analysis Michael
L, you make a strong argument. When I look at
this match-up, there are really two statistics
that jump out. The first is that the Chicago
defense is only giving up 10.9 points per game.
Part of that is due to the fact that Chicago
has played some really awful offensive teams
this year.
That being said, 10.9 points
is just a remarkably low number. To put it into
perspective, the 1985 Super Bowl champion Chicago
Bears gave up 12.4 points per game, and they
are regarded as perhaps the best defense in
NFL history. This years’ Bears team certainly
can not be put in that category yet, but it
shows what kind of company they are keeping.
The other incredible statistic
in this game is Favre’s record against
the Bears. Favre has a 21-5 career mark against
them, which includes 12-1 on the road, with
the only defeat coming 12 years ago. To say
that Favre has “the Bears number”
is one of the most overused cliches in the business,
but it has been true up to this point.
The question in this game is
whether Favre can continue his magic with Samkon
Gado running the ball, and a wide receiving
core that basically has one weapon, Donald Driver.
Gado has shown some ability, but this is a player
that even the most ardent fantasy football fan
hadn’t heard of until a few weeks ago.
To throw out some more
statistics in the Bears’ favor, Chicago’s
defense is only giving up 5.4 points per game
at home, and has allowed only one touchdown
at home all year. I would love to be able to
go against you and pick Green Bay, as it makes
this column a lot more interesting. However,
Chicago looks like the much safer pick for this
contest.
Posted by miker at
December 2, 2005 08:24 AM
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