VIPSPORTS WEEK 13 BETTING

It may only be Thursday, but there is plenty of reason to be excited about this week’s NFL schedule. 11 of the games have a spread of four points or less, which means there should be some fantastic finishes on the horizon. Looking back to last week’s picks, it was another 2-2 effort, with the year to date mark stuck at 20-27.

The first win of the week was Cincinnati giving nine points to Baltimore, and winning 42-29. The Bengals jumped out to a 31-0 lead in the third quarter. Cincinnati then started turning the ball over, and Baltimore scored 21 unanswered points. Fortunately, the Bengals tacked on another score midway through the 4th quarter, and the cover was never in doubt after that.

The second win of the week was Minnesota giving four points to Cleveland, and winning 24-12. The total yardage gained was about even for the two teams, but five Cleveland turnovers really did them in. Minnesota quarterback, Brad Johnson had another efficient day with 207 yards passing, and three touchdown throws.

The first loss of the week was Oakland giving seven points to Miami, and losing 33-21. Miami was reeling from a three game losing streak heading into this game, and Oakland needed a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Alas, Raiders’ coach, Norv Turner showed once again why he is on the hot seat, as his team played with little fire in front of the home crowd.

The second loss of the week was the Jets getting one point at home from New Orleans, and losing 21-19. The Jets had a first down on New Orleans’ 33 yard line with 1:24 left in the game. All they needed was a few yards to set up the game-winning field goal, but they lost a yard on the series, and missed the 53 yard attempt. Ouch.

Bet Now: Cincinnati (+3) at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh (7-4) is still wounded by the 26-7 beating they took at Indianapolis on Monday Night. The game started with a Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison 80 yard bomb, and continued to get worse from there. Steelers’ quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger made his first start in four weeks, and threw for 133 yards and two interceptions.

Roethlisberger should play a lot better this week, as he will have more confidence in his shaky knee, and will not have to face the devastating Colts’ pass rush. Pittsburgh’s signal caller did tweak his ankle in the Colts game, but he will be ready to go. Pro Bowl left tackle, Marvel Smith is questionable at this point, and his presence is key in protecting Roethlisberger.

Cincinnati has an 8-3 record, but if you look a little closer, it is not nearly that impressive. The teams that they have beaten have a combined record of 30-58, with the only notable win at Chicago in Week 3. When they have had to play tough teams like Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Jacksonville, they are 0-3, even though the first two were at home.

In October’s Pittsburgh game, the Steelers’ defense held quarterback Carson Palmer to his second lowest throwing total of the year, 227 yards. Palmer also threw two picks, which is a season high. To combat the Steelers’ blitzing style of defense, Cincinnati will employ a lot of no-huddle offense, which has been very effective the last two weeks.

Whoever wins this game will be in control of the NFC North division. If Pittsburgh wins, the records will be even, but they will own the head-to-head tie breaker. If Cincinnati wins, then they will have a two-game lead with just four games to play. With so much on the line, look for the Steelers to come out on fire at home, and get a touchdown win.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Bet Now: Dallas (+3) at NY Giants

The NY Giants (7-4) are coming off one of the most heartbreaking losses in recent memory. It wasn’t just the fact that they were defeated, 24-21 in overtime to Seattle, it was the way they lost. Kicker Jay Feely missed three game-winning field goals, two of them well within his range, and the Giants blew a golden opportunity.

The big question this week is how do the Giants respond mentally to the Seattle loss? They are 3-0 after prior losses this year, but only 1-2 in those games against the spread. Coach Tom Coughlin will do a good job getting his team focused on the task at hand, but it will still be a tough week to bounce back from.

Dallas is 7-4 after having their three game winning streak snapped against Denver, 24-21 on Thanksgiving Day. Dallas has now lost three games by three points or less, and they easily could be 10-1 right now. In fairness, the Cowboys have sneaked out a couple of wins as well, specifically their games against Philadelphia and San Francisco.

A key to Dallas getting untracked this week is running back Julius Jones. Jones got 20 carries last week, but only for 55 yards. Granted, Denver has a tremendous run defense, but Jones is too explosive for those kind of stats. If Jones has a better day on Sunday than New York’s Tiki Barber, the Giants are in trouble.

The good part about Dallas playing on Thanksgiving is that they have 10 days to prepare for this game. When you have a great coach like Bill Parcells, it can be an important factor. The thought here is that Dallas has a very good chance to win this game outright, so taking the points is the easy selection.

Pick: Dallas

Bet Now: Buffalo (+4) at Miami

Buffalo is 4-7 after a 13-9 loss to Carolina. That dropped the Bills’ home record to 4-3, which is still a lot better than their road mark of 0-5. In those five losses, Buffalo has only lost one by less than 12 points, and they have an average margin of defeat of almost 18 points. Buffalo has played one decent game on the road this year, a 21-16 loss at New England with quarterback, Kelly Holcomb at the helm.

This week, the head to Miami with J.P. Losman as the starting quarterback. Buffalo rightly wants to evaluate Losman for the rest of the year, but their chances of winning are better with a healthy Holcomb. Losman has a quarterback rating of 65, second lowest in the NFL.

Miami is 4-7 as well after a 33-21 win at Oakland. The Dolphins were without linebacker Zach Thomas, but got a lot of big contributions from their other defensive players. Quarterback, Gus Frerotte continued his up and down season, connecting for two touchdowns and 261 yards passing. It was arguably his best game since Week 1.

For Miami to get another win this week, they must continue running the ball with the two headed tandem of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Each back is averaging over four yards per carry, and is capable of a 100 yard effort. Buffalo defensive tackle Sam Adams was deactivated for last weeks game, and he may be again this week. If he is out, there will be a giant hole in the middle of the Buffalo defense.

Even though both teams are 4-7, neither is out of the AFC East division race, as New England is only 6-5. This game really hinges on the performance of Losman. If he plays well, it will be a close game. If he bombs again, this could easily be a two touchdown spread. This column believes that the latter is the more likely scenario.

Pick: Miami

Bet Now: Atlanta (+3) at Carolina

Carolina is 8-3 after a 13-9 win at Buffalo. Beating the Bills by only four points might not sound like much of an effort, but it is still one of the toughest road venues to play in. In that game, Carolina’s run defense did a great job on Buffalo running back Willlis McGahee, holding him to just 53 yards on 21 carries.

To beat Atlanta however, Carolina must get a very good game out of quarterback, Jake Delhomme. Prior to Buffalo, Delhomme had two straight games where he threw a total of four picks, and had a quarterback rating around 50. Atlanta is too good a team to get a bad day from Delhomme, and still expect to win.

Atlanta is 7-4 after a 27-7 drubbing of Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. The win ended a two game losing streak, and improved their road record to 4-1. A win by Atlanta would tie them with Carolina for the NFC South lead, with another meeting between the two teams on the last day of the regular season.

The most notable statistic in this game is quarterback, Michael Vick’s record versus the Panthers. He is 5-0 lifetime against them, and has rushed for 356 yards on 40 carries. That is almost 9 yards a rush. The Panthers’ defense is known as one of the most aggressive in the NFL, but they haven’t been able to contain Atlanta’s biggest weapon.

Vick has stayed in the pocket a little more this year, and the Panthers would love it to stay that way on Sunday. This game is vitally important to Atlanta’s playoff chances, and that means Vick is more likely to tuck it and run. Look for Atlanta to play Carolina extremely tough, with a good chance of winning the game.

Pick: Atlanta

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