EXPERT NFL WILDCARD SELECTIONS

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The NFL regular season is over, but this column will continue all the way through the Super Bowl. Last week’s selections were 3-2, marking the third consecutive week over .500. The year to date mark is now 35-39.

The first win of the week was Miami getting 5.5 points at New England, and winning 28-26. The Patriots only played their starters about a quarter of the game, and Miami took a 25-13 lead in the fourth. New England scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to make it interesting, but the cover was never in doubt.

The second win of the week was San Francisco getting 1.5 points from Houston, and winning 20-17. The Texans were going for the number one pick in the draft, and USC’s Reggie Bush, and they basically tried to lose the game as expected. The contest finally ended in overtime with a Joe Nedney field goal, but there really should be an investigation from the league office.

The third win of the week was Jacksonville giving 3.5 points to Tennessee, and winning 40-13. This game was never in doubt as Jacksonville jumped out to a 17-0 first quarter lead, and 27-0 at halftime. The score got to 40-0 in the fourth quarter before the Titans even got on the board.

The first loss of the week was Indianapolis giving 7 points to Arizona, and winning 17-13. This was a battle of the Colts’ backups versus the Arizona starters. Indianapolis was still trying to win this game for their coach Tony Dungy, and to avoid a three game losing streak heading into the playoffs. They accomplished their goal, but did not cover.

The second loss of the week was Buffalo giving 1 point at the Jets, and losing 30-26. The Bills lost the turnover battle 4-0, but they were incredibly still winning, 26-23 with six minutes left in the game. The Jets’ Justin Miller then returned a kickoff for a touchdown to help New York win the game, but he hurt their draft position in the process.

Bet Now: Washington (+2.5) at Tampa Bay

Redskins vs Buccaneers - The Redskins are 10-6 after a 31-20 do-or-die win over Philadelphia last week. Running back Clinton Portis went over the 100 yard mark for the fifth consecutive week, and he will be the featured offensive player in this game. Quarterback, Mark Brunell is expected to start this week despite a sprained right knee that bothered him against Philly.

Washington has an injury situation at cornerback with Shawn Springs. The MRI on his groin did not reveal a tear, but he is unlikely to practice this week, and he remains questionable at best for the game. If Springs can not go, then nickel back, Carlos Rogers will start alongside Walt Harris, which really hurts their depth at the position.

Tampa Bay is 11-5 after a 27-13 win over New Orleans. The game ensured that the Buccaneers would win the NFC South division and host this game. The team has played very well overall the last eight weeks, going 6-2, and only playing one real bad game in a loss at New England.

Tampa Bay will also rely on the running game with Cadillac Williams. Williams is a rookie, but at this time of the year, there are no rookies. Running the ball will take the pressure off quarterback, Chris Simms. Simms had trouble winning the big game at the University of Texas, and he can not be expected to carry the team on his back.

These two teams met in Tampa Bay earlier in the year, with the Redskins losing 36-35. In that game, Clinton Portis rushed for 144 yards, but the Buccaneers successfully converted a two point conversion to win. This should be another close game, but I’ll go with the squad with the veteran signal caller like Brunell. The Redskins win by a field goal.

Pick: Washington

Bet Now: Jacksonville (+7.5) at New England

Jaguars vs Patriots - New England finished the season at 10-6 after a 28-26 loss to Miami. The common thinking among fans in New England is that Coach Bill Belichick removed his starters early in the game so the Patriots would lose and face Jacksonville and not Pittsburgh. It will be interesting to see if the Jaguars’ coaches try to use that a motivational tool for their team.

As far as the game-plan for the Patriots goes, the pass is going to be used to set up the run. Jacksonville has two great defensive tackles in Marcus Stroud and John Henderson which makes them very tough to run against. Look for quarterback Tom Brady to spread the field using three, four and five receiver sets. If the Patriots get the early lead, then they will look to run more.

Jacksonville is 12-4 on the year after beating Tennessee 40-13. The Jaguars are 8-1 in their last nine games, although none of the teams they beat had a winning record this season. Jacksonville was 6-2 on the road this year, with a big win at Pittsburgh, but their ability to win a playoff game away from home is still in question.

The big question for Jacksonville is the status of quarterback Byron Leftwich. Leftwich has not played a game since breaking his ankle on November 27th. He has been taking all the snaps with the first string offense, and he is scheduled to start barring a setback. Jacksonville was 5-1 under backup, David Garrard, but they feel that Leftwich gives them the best chance to win in the playoffs.

The fact that Jacksonville went 12-4 on the regular season and is more than a touchdown underdog says a lot about this game. The first factor is that the Patriots have won the last two Super Bowls, while this will be the first playoff game for many of the Jaguars, including Leftwich. The second factor is the temperature will be around 20 degrees, this clearly favors the Patriots.

Pick: New England

Bet Now: Carolina (+2.5) at NY Giants

Panthers vs Giants - Carolina is the most difficult playoff team to predict performance on. They went 11-5 on the year, but had a better record on the road (6-2), than at home (5-3). Quarterback, Jake Delhomme is a big reason for their up and down play. When he plays mistake free football, this team is very hard to beat, but he still throws the ball into coverage way too often.

Running back, DeShaun Foster gained 165 yards last week at Atlanta, and he will be asked to carry the load against a Giants’ defense that is severely banged up at linebacker. If Foster is successful, Delhomme will be able to take his shots down the field with receiver Steve Smith. Smith is a match-up problem for every NFL cornerback.

New York is 11-5 on the year and 7-1 at home. Their only loss was 24-21 against Minnesota, a game they gave away with turnovers. This will be quarterback, Eil Manning’s first playoff game. Manning has had some shaky moments over the last month, especially in the fourth quarter, and he needs to steady the ship.

The Giants will feature running back Tiki Barber, and why not? He is a league MVP candidate, and he needs to touch the ball 30 times. On defense, the Giants’ defensive ends, Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora should good get pressure on Delhomme, and they need to help force an interception or two.

Carolina coach, John Fox is the former defensive coordinator of the Giants, and he will figure out a way to at least slow Barber down. Carolina middle linebacker, Dan Morgan should be available, which also helps. Overall, the Panthers are the more experienced team having gone to the Super Bowl two years ago. They pull off the upset on the road

Pick: Carolina

Bet Now: Pittsburgh (-3) at Cincinnati

Steelers vs Bengals - Pittsburgh is 11-5 after a 35-21 win over Detroit. It was the fourth straight victory for the Steelers, who needed each and every one of them to make the playoffs. The key to the Steelers late season surge has been a defense that allowed an average of eight points per game, and a rushing attack that averaged over 180 yards.

It is no secret that Pittsburgh will try to push their running game down Cincinnati’s throat. Willie Parker will get most of the carries, but Jerome Bettis is always available for short yardage attempts and down by the goal line. Quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger has not thrown more than 20 passes in their last four wins, but he might be forced to Sunday if Cincinnati goes up early.

The Bengals are also 11-5, but they secured the division crown before last week’s loss to Kansas City. The Chiefs’ win means that Cincinnati has dropped their last two games, and they really haven’t been clicking on all cylinders for the last month. This is the team’s first playoff appearance since 1990, so the experience edge heavily favors Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati would love to get into a high scoring affair in this game. Quarterback, Carson Palmer is an All-Pro performer, and running back Rudi Johnson and receiver Chad Johnson help make their offense unstoppable at times. Look for the Bengals to establish their passing game first, which is where their advantage over Pittsburgh lies.

These two teams met twice during the regular season, with Pittsburgh winning at Cincinnati on October 23rd, and the Bengals winning in Pittsburgh on December 4th. If form holds true, and I think it will, the Steelers will come out on top.

Pick: Pittsburgh

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