EXPERT NFL PICKS WEEK 15

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Please note the ongoing change to this column, as there are now six weekly picks. The four in this article, and one each in the “Reader Pick Of The Week” and the “Monday Night Football” columns. The results for all six will be posted here each week.

After all that was said and done in Week 14, the scoreboard read 2-2-2. That was a disappointment considering that the Colts turned a sure win into a push. The column continues to tread water with a 24-33 yearly mark, ignoring ties.

The first win of the week was Miami getting 14 points at San Diego, and winning 23-21. The thinking here was that Miami’s defense could hold San Diego to 25-30 points, while their offense should be good for 17 points or so. At no time was the thinking that Miami would win the game outright, but that is what they did, in stunning fashion.

The second win of the week was Atlanta giving 10.5 points to New Orleans, and winning 36-17. This was a home game for the Falcons on Monday Night Football, and they needed a win to stay in the playoff chase. The score was only 17-13 Atlanta, at halftime, but New Orleans got shut out the rest of the way, and the final margin ballooned to almost 20 points.

The first loss of the week was Chicago getting 5.5 points at Pittsburgh, and losing 21-9. Pittsburgh had been in a tailspin, while the Chicago defense was propelling them to victory after victory. It was thought that this would be a very close game, with Chicago having a good chance to win. Instead, Pittsburgh played an inspired game, and won fairly easily.

The second loss of the week was the Giants giving eights points to Philadelphia, and winning 26-23. The Eagles were playing without running back Brian Westbrook, who is out for the season. Backup, Ryan Moats filled in nicely with 114 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. This game went into overtime, with New York prevailing with the win, but not the cover.

The first push of the week was Indianapolis giving eight points to Jacksonville, and winning 26-18. The Colts had a 26-3 lead with just five minutes left in the game, but then Jacksonville scored a touchdown to make it 26-10. The Jaguars then recovered an onside kick, and got a two point touchdown conversion on their final drive. Talk about a painful ending.

The second push of the week was Arizona getting four points from Washington. This was a closely played game throughout, with Arizona possessing a 13-10 lead mid-way through the 3rd quarter. The Redskins then got a 91 yard kickoff return for a touchdown, and neither team scored after that. Washington ended up winning 17-13.

Bet Now: Kansas City (+2.5) at NY Giants

This is the second of three Saturday games. The first is Tampa Bay at New England, and the night game is Denver at Buffalo. Kansas City dropped to 8-5 last week after a heartbreaking 31-28 loss at Dallas. The Chiefs are now tied with Pittsburgh and San Diego for the final AFC Wild Card spot, with all three teams having tough games this week.

Kansas City knows that the best way to quiet the boisterous Giants’ crowd is to control the ball. That means letting elite running back, Larry Johnson carry the load. Johnson has gone over the 100 yard mark for six consecutive weeks, including 143 against Dallas. If he does not get at least 100 yards in this game, then the Chiefs are in trouble.

The Giants are 9-4 after surviving last week against Philly, 26-23 in overtime. Quarterback, Eli Manning was shaky in the 4th quarter once again, throwing two interceptions. Manning did throw for over 300 yards for the 3rd time this season, but he needs to play better when the game is on the line.

While Manning needs to be more consistent, running back Tiki Barber is the key to this game. The Kansas City front-seven plays fast, but that makes them susceptible to cut-back runs. Barber is one of the best at starting one way, and then reversing course to the other side of the field. Look for him to break at least one long run on Saturday.

While Kansas City desperately needs this game, the same can be said for New York. The Giants are one game ahead of Dallas in the NFC East, and they are in a four-way tie for the second best record in the NFC. Whoever wins that battle will have a first round bye in the playoffs. This should be a close game, but it is hard to pass up the home team when giving less than a field goal.

Pick: NY Giants

Bet Now: Arizona (-1.5) at Houston

Houston saw their record drop to 1-12 after losing 13-10 to Tennessee. It was the third game in a row that the Texans let a victory slip out of their hands. Three weeks ago, Houston lost in overtime to St. Louis after leading 24-3 at halftime. Two weeks ago, they lost to Baltimore, 16-15 after a last second field goal by Matt Stover.

Houston’s best opportunity to win this game is by running Domanick Davis down Arizona’s throat. Davis had 155 and 139 yards rushing the last two games, and they will keep feeding him the ball. Quarterback, David Carr will have a lot of good passing opportunities on play-action, and he can not afford to squander them.

Arizona is 4-9 after a 17-13 loss to Washington. This was a turnover filled game, with seven total between the two teams. It was also the fourth consecutive week that Arizona alternated a win with a loss. In that pattern holds true this week, it will result in a victory.

The Cardinals’ game-plan this week is to throw, throw, throw. Houston’s secondary is extremely vulnerable, and Arizona wide receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Aquan Boldin, are both big-time players. It would be nice for Arizona to mix in a few run plays now and then, but it is not necessary for them to win this game.

Houston has played with heart the last few weeks, and they are a better team than their record indicates. This is a home game for Houston, but most of the crowd is secretly hoping that they lose so they can draft USC’s Reggie Bush. The players know this as well, and Houston will find another way to blow this game.

Pick: Arizona

Bet Now: Pittsburgh (-3) at Minnesota

Minnesota is 8-5 on the year, and in the midst of a six game winning streak. Six games in a row is impressive by any measure, but to be fair, we must consider who they have played. That list includes Detroit twice, Green Bay, St. Louis, Cleveland and the Giants. The only team over .500 in that group is New York, and Minnesota received a lof of breaks in that game.

For Minnesota to win, the offensive attack needs to be varied. Michael Bennett has been the leading rusher the last two weeks, and he will be counted on for a big game. Quarterback, Brad Johnson has been steady as a rock since filling in for Daunte Culpepper, and he will try to spread the ball around to a number of different receivers.

Pittsburgh (8-5) is coming off an impressive 21-9 win over Chicago. That game symbolized what we expect out of Pittsburgh. Namely, a solid defense, a great running game, and enough plays in the passing game to keep defenses honest. Now the key for Pittsburgh is to accomplish all those things two weeks in a row.

The Pittsburgh running game this week will begin with starter Willie Parker, but may end with Jerome Bettis. Bettis had 101 yards rushing last week, and he is fresh for this game due to a limited amount of carries over the course of this year. Bettis’ bruising style is not as effective on turf, but he still makes a great one-two punch with Parker.

These two teams may have the same record, and both be fighting for their playoff lives, but that doesn’t mean these teams are equal. The Steelers are the better overall squad, and they hit their bottom mark with their recent three game losing streak. Look for the Steelers to prevail even in the hostile environment.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Bet Now: Atlanta (+3) at Chicago

Chicago is 9-4 after a 21-9 loss at Pittsburgh. The Steelers were able to pound Chicago into submission by running the ball, amassing 190 yards rushing. Pittsburgh also got on the board first, forcing the Bears’ offense to play catch-up, a role that they are not accustomed to this season.

The Bears need to get back to basics this week. That means running the ball with Thomas Jones and Adrian Peterson, and mixing in the occasional pass with quarterback, Kyle Orton. Atlanta’s defensive front can be run on this year, and their pass defense has some holes too.

Atlanta is 8-5 on the year after dispatching New Orleans, 36-17. Atlanta looked very sloppy in this game early on, and it was only a four point spread at halftime. New Orleans then got shut out the rest of the way, and the Falcons were safely able to cover the 10.5 points.

The big concern in this game for Atlanta is the health of quarterback, Michael Vick. Vick has sore ribs, but it looks like he will play even if he is less than 100%. Vick should be able to stand in the pocket and throw with the injury. The question is whether he will be less of a threat to run, making Atlanta’s offense much less dangerous.

This is the Sunday Night game on ESPN, which means that the crowd will be extra loud, and the temperatures will be extra cold. The latest forecast has the game being played at around 15 degrees. The Bears’ defense played one of their worst games of the year last week, but they will bounce back here against a wounded Vick.

Pick: Chicago

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