EXPERT NFL PICKS WEEK 14

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This is the third in a series of articles where a VIP Sports Edge reader will pick a game against the spread, with further analysis from VIP’s Michael Robinson. If you would like to participate in a future article, please contact [email protected].

Bet Now: Miami (+14) at San Diego

Michael L, Roseville, California: Pick: San Diego

This game is the most appetizing one on the Week 14 schedule. The Chargers are peaking at the right time of the season, as they have won five straight games and eight out of their last 10. The Dolphins have a modest two game winning streak of their own, but they are still the Dolphins.

Miami looked good in their 24-23 comeback win over Buffalo last week, scoring three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind though, that it was against the hapless Bills. On the road this year, Miami is averaging just 14 points per game. That is a direct reflection of the Dolphins’ poor performance on 3rd down, just a 32% conversion rate on the road.

Combine that statistic with Miami turning the ball over twice as often on the road as San Diego does at home, and it doesn’t make for a fun date in “SoCal” for the Dolphins. To make matters worse, Miami’s post season hopes are just that, hopes. In order to make the playoffs, Miami would have to win their last four games, and hope for a monumental collapse by New England.

On the other side of the ball are the San Diego Chargers, one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. San Diego sits one game behind Denver, and tied with Kansas City in the AFC West. The Chargers can score early and often. Quarterback, Drew Brees completes nearly 68% of his passes at home, and with LaDainian Tomlinson running the ball, I wouldn’t be surprised if San Diego covers the 14 points by the end of the first half.

Michael Robinson (VIP Sports): Pick: Miami

Michael, you have picked one of the more difficult games of the week in my opinion, but here goes. As you mentioned, Tomlinson is such a key part of the Chargers’ offense, but he is hurting with a chest injury. Tomlinson has vowed to play, but will coach Marty Schottenheimer keep him in the game in the second half if they have a two touchdown lead?

There is also some good news on the injury front for Miami. Linebacker, Zach Thomas is expected to play after missing the last two games. Wide receiver, Marty Booker will also return, which means the team may not have to rely on Chris Chambers to catch 15 passes like he did against Buffalo.

The bad news for Miami is they have been a Jekyll and Hyde team on the road this year. Their last three road games were wins over New Orleans and Oakland, with an embarrassing 22-0 loss at Cleveland sandwiched in between. It is hard to know which Miami team is going to show up week to week.

San Diego on the other hand is a very good home team, even though their record is just 4-2. In their last two home games, they were favored over Buffalo and Oakland by 12 and 13 points respectively. The score of those two games were 48-10 and 34-10 victories, so this is a team that is clearly capable of covering a two touchdown spread.

San Diego’s offense is averaging over 33 points at home, and they should be good for 28 against a decent Miami defense. The Chargers will be able to control the Miami running game, which will force quarterback Gus Frerotte to beat them with his arm. Still, I can see Miami scoring 17 points, even if one of them is a late touchdown for the back-door cover.

Final Score: San Diego 28, Miami 17

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