Friday January 14th, 2004 - Page updated at 3:30pm
By:
C. McDermott
NFL
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NFL
Divisional Playoff Preview
(5) N.Y. Jets (11-6) at (1)
Pittsburgh (15-1)
(Wager On Football - NFL Picks - NFL Matchup
Previews)- The Pittsburgh Steelers will look
to carry their regular season magic into the playoffs
this Saturday, when Bill Cowher's streaking team plays
host to the New York Jets in an AFC Divisional Playoff
at Heinz Field.
The Steelers' 15-1 regular season mark was the best in
franchise history and the best in the NFL in 2004, and
Pittsburgh closed out the campaign by winning an NFL-record-tying
14 straight games. Pittsburgh joined the 1984 San Francisco
49ers, 1985 Chicago Bears, and 1998 Minnesota Vikings
as the only teams to go 15-1 in league history. The Steelers'
only loss of the season came at Baltimore on Sept. 19th.
Prior to last week's first-round bye, Cowher and company
earned a 26-17 victory at Buffalo.
The Jets, meanwhile, come off a thrilling, 20-17 overtime
victory in San Diego in an AFC Wild Card contest last
Saturday. The triumph snapped a two-game losing streak
for Herman Edwards' crew, which will be vying to lead
the franchise to its first AFC Championship appearance
since the 1998 season.
SERIES HISTORY
The Steelers are 15-2 all-time against the Jets, and
have won all six meetings between the two teams in the
Steel City. Pittsburgh extended their advantage in the
series with a 17-6 home triumph in Week 14 of the regular
season. New York defeated Pittsburgh at home by a 6-0
count last season, and also prevailed against the Steelers
at the Meadowlands in 1988.
Cowher is 4-1 all-time against the Jets, including 3-0
at home. Edwards is 1-2 against both the Steelers and
Cowher in his career.
JETS OFFENSE VS. STEELERS DEFENSE
The Jets' win in San Diego featured a less-than-stellar
performance from 2004 rushing champion Curtis Martin,
who was held to 66 yards on 18 carries in the victory.
Martin did contribute four catches for 47 yards out of
the backfield, however. LaMont Jordan, who saw an expanded
role in the running game as the season wore on, rushed
seven times for 50 yards against the Chargers, and had
three receptions. Martin rushed for 72 yards on 24 carries
against the Steelers in Week 14, while Jordan added 10
yards on three carries. The Jets ranked third in NFL rushing
offense (149.2 yards per game) during the regular season.
Martin, who played his college ball at the University
of Pittsburgh, will this week have to contend with a Steeler
defense that ranked first in the league against the run
(81.2 yards per game) during the regular season. The team's
swarming group of linebackers, most notably ILBs James
Farrior (94 tackles, 3 sacks) and Larry Foote (69 tackles,
3 sacks) have led the run-stopping effort, with end Aaron
Smith (43 tackles, 8 sacks) and tackles Kimo von Oelhoffen
(24 tackles) and Chris Hoke (24 tackles) forging a formidable
front in the team's 3-4 set. Pittsburgh held the Jets
to 107 ground yards on 32 carries in Week 14.
Jets quarterback Chad Pennington played a major role
in his team's win over the Chargers, completing 23 of
33 passes for 279 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the
victory. Pennington did not throw an interception in the
game, and was sacked only twice. Wideouts Justin McCareins
(8 receptions, 87 yards) and Santana Moss (4 receptions,
100 yards, 1 TD) served as the signal- caller's prime
targets, and tight end Anthony Becht added a touchdown
catch on the day. Pennington will be looking to improve
on his Week 14 performance against the Steelers, when
he completed 17 of 31 passes for 189 yards but fired three
interceptions and failed to engineer a touchdown drive.
McCareins (4 receptions, 78 yards) was the team's top
receiver in that loss, as Moss (3 receptions, 37 yards)
was held in check. Pennington missed practice on Wednesday
with a stomach virus and is officially listed as probable
on the injury report. Brooks Bollinger, who appeared in
one game for the Jets this season, will be the backup
on Saturday. The Jets were 22nd in NFL passing offense
(190.6 yards per game) during the regular season, and
the 31 sacks allowed by the line were tied for the seventh-lowest
figure in the league.
Pennington, who faced little pressure from the Chargers
and was operating against the league's second-worst passing
defense, will on Saturday face a team that was among the
NFL's best against aerial attacks (177.2 yards per game)
and also rang up a healthy 41 sacks in the regular season.
In charge of stopping Moss and McCareins will be cornerbacks
Deshea Townsend (56 tackles, 4 INT, 4 sacks) and Willie
Williams (56 tackles, 1 INT), with safeties Troy Polamalu
(96 tackles, 5 INT) and Chris Hope (89 tackles, 1 INT)
adding assistance. Hope and Polamalu each had interceptions
of Pennington in Week 14, as did Farrior (4 INT). The
Steelers did not sack Pennington in that game, though
outside linebackers Joey Porter (53 tackles, 7 sacks)
and Clark Haggans (37 tackles, 6 sacks) offered consistent
pressure. End Aaron Smith leads Cowher's club in sacks
with eight on the year.
STEELERS OFFENSE VS. JETS DEFENSE
The mystery of who will start at running back for Pittsburgh
is unlikely to be solved long before Saturday's kickoff,
though conventional wisdom suggests Jerome Bettis (941
yards, 13 TD) will get the initial call. Bettis rushed
for more than 100 yards in all six of his starts this
year, and had 57 yards on just 10 carries against the
Jets in Week 14. Duce Staley (830 yards, 1 TD) has been
hampered by a hamstring injury for much of the season's
second half, and has totaled just 123 yards on 41 carries
(3.0 yards per carry) since the start of November. Staley
rushed 16 times for 51 yards against the Jets in Week
14. Verron Haynes (272 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 2
TD) could continue to see time as the team's third-down
back. Pittsburgh ranked second in the league in rushing
offense (154 yards per game), behind only Michael Vick
and Atlanta, during the regular season.
Charged with the task of slowing Bettis and Staley will
be a Jets team that held San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson
to 80 yards on 26 carries last week. Linebackers Jonathan
Vilma (13 tackles) and Eric Barton (11 tackles) were the
biggest factors in the run-stopping effort, with end Shaun
Ellis leading the line with seven tackles in the victory.
Defensive tackles Dewayne Robertson and Jason Ferguson
combined for 11 tackles in the contest. Ferguson led the
line with 58 tackles during the regular season. The Jets
ranked fifth in the league in rushing defense (97.9 yards
per game) during the regular season.
Saturday will mark the occasion of the first career playoff
start for Steelers rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger (2621
passing yards, 17 TD, 11 INT), who will be trying to build
on a regular season that saw him go 13-0 as a starter.
Roethlisberger has not seen action since the second half
of a Dec. 26th win over the Ravens, when he bruised his
ribs on a hit by Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs. Roethlisberger
had one of his weakest outings of the year in Week 14
against the Jets, when he completed just 9 of 19 passes
for 144 yards and two interceptions. Top wideout Hines
Ward (80 receptions, 4 TD) was held to two catches for
38 yards in that game, and Plaxico Burress (35 reception,s
5 TD) did not play due to a hamstring strain. That duo,
along with No. 3 receiver Antwaan Randle El (43 receptions,
3 TD), have served as Roethlisberger's primary pass-catchers
this year. The Steelers ranked 28th in NFL passing offense
(170 yards per game) during the regular season, and finished
middle-of-the-pack with 36 sacks allowed. The Pittsburgh
line allowed two sacks of Roethlisberger on Dec. 12th
versus the Jets.
The Jet secondary showed some holes in the AFC Wild Card
win, when San Diego quarterback Drew Brees completed 31
of 42 passes for 319 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The
unit did register a rare highlight in the first half,
when safety Reggie Tongue intercepted a Brees pass and
returned it 22 yards. Safety Erik Coleman paced the New
York secondary with nine tackles in the contest. Cornerbacks
David Barrett (4 tackles last week) and Donnie Abraham
(2 tackles) will look to make more of an impact against
Ward and Burress. Tongue and Abraham both had interceptions
of Roethlisberger in Week 14. The Jets sacked Brees twice
last week, but the pass-rushing effort will again be hampered
by the probable absence of end John Abraham. Abraham has
been out for more than a month with a knee injury. Ellis,
who had a sack-and-a-half against Roethlisberger in Week
14, will have to pick up the slack. Edwards' team was
14th in the league in passing defense (207 yards per game)
during the regular season, and was tied for 17th in sacks
(37).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kicker Doug Brien had a shaky week against the Chargers,
missing a 33-yard field goal, making a 42-yarder that
hit both the upright and crossbar, and nearly missing
a point-after before kicking a 28-yard game-winner in
overtime. Punter Toby Gowin, whose five punts averaged
39.8 yards, was steady. Jerricho Cotchery averaged 22
yards on three kickoff returns, and Santana Moss caught
all three of his punt returns for fair catches.
The duo of punter Chris Gardocki (43.0 avg.) and kicker
Jeff Reed (28-33 FG) has been trustworthy for the Steelers
all year. Gardocki averaged 42.4 yards on five punts against
the Jets in December, and Reed made his only field goal
attempt, a 34-yarder. Randle El (8.3 punt return avg.,
25.1 kickoff return avg.) is regarded as a dangerous return
man, though he failed to bring one back for a touchdown
during the regular season.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Steelers have a few big questions to be answered
in this game, most notably on the offensive side of the
ball. Roethlisberger's rookie status leads some to ponder
his ability to win in such a big game, and the uncertain
running back situation is also something of a concern.
But Pittsburgh can always fall back on its top-notch defense,
one that dominated opponents on the line of scrimmage
all year and can be counted on to limit Martin while rattling
Pennington with constant pressure. If the defense can
set the tone, it will take the heat off of Roethlisberger,
who will simply have to manage the offense effectively,
not put the team on his back.
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NFL Divisional
Playoff Preview
(5) St. Louis (9-8) at (2) Atlanta (11-5)
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The Atlanta Falcons will look to clear their first hurdle
in a quest for the first Super Bowl title in franchise
history on Saturday night, when Jim Mora's team plays
host to the streaking St. Louis Rams in an NFC Divisional
Playoff.
The Falcons, who lost in their only Super Bowl appearance
following the 1998 campaign, will be playing their first
home playoff game since that season. Atlanta's 20-18 win
over San Francisco in a 1998 divisional playoff had served
as the team's only home postseason contest since 1980.
The Falcons enter the playoffs having lost their last
two regular season games, though the team rested many
of its starters, including quarterback Michael Vick, for
the majority of those two contests. Atlanta's most recent
victory was a 34-31 overtime triumph over Carolina on
Dec. 18th.
The Rams, meanwhile, come into their second postseason
game fresh off a 27-20 road victory over Seattle in an
NFC Wild Card affair last Saturday. St. Louis, which has
now won three in a row dating back to the regular season,
became the first-ever NFL team with a record of .500 or
worse in the regular season to win a playoff game, a feat
that was matched when the similarly 8-8 Vikings took down
Green Bay the next day.
SERIES HISTORY
The Rams hold a 46-24-2 edge in the all-time series with
Atlanta, and had won seven in a row in the series prior
to a 34-17 home win for the Falcons in Week 2 of the regular
season. St. Louis last defeated Atlanta in 2003, by a
36-0 count, and last won a road game in the series during
the 2001 regular season.
Saturday will mark the first-ever postseason meeting
between the teams.
Martz enters Sunday's game with a career record of 5-1
versus Atlanta, while Mora is 1-0 versus both Martz and
St. Louis as a head coach.
RAMS OFFENSE VS. FALCONS DEFENSE
Not surprisingly, the Rams leaned heavily on their passing
game in last Saturday's Wild Card win over the Seahawks.
Quarterback Marc Bulger, who threw for nearly 4,000 yards
in the regular season, completed 18 of 32 passes for 313
yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in the victory.
Wideouts Torry Holt (6 receptions, 108 yards, 1 TD) and
Kevin Curtis (4 receptions, 107 yards) were Bulger's favorite
targets against Seattle, as No. 2 receiver Isaac Bruce
(3 receptions, 40 yards) was held in check. Holt and Bruce
both had big days against Atlanta in Week 2, with Holt
catching nine balls for 121 yards and a a score and Bruce
chipping in with eight receptions for 102 yards in the
game. Bulger completed 24 of 31 passes for 285 yards,
a touchdown and an interception in that contest, and was
also sacked five times. St. Louis ranked fifth in NFL
passing offense (265.8 yards per game) during the regular
season, but ranked near the bottom of the league in sacks
allowed (50). Bulger was sacked five times by the Seahawks
last week.
Attempting to place pressure on Bulger will be an Atlanta
defense that led the NFL with 48 sacks during the regular
season. Ends Patrick Kerney (66 tackles, 13 INT) and Brady
Smith (30 tackles, 6 sacks) will bring the heat from the
outside, with tackles Rod Coleman (40 tackles, 11.5 sacks)
and Ed Jasper (32 tackles, 2 sacks) operating on the interior.
Kerney had two sacks of Bulger in Week 2, and Smith and
Jasper were credited with one each. The Falcons' relentless
pass rush helped disguise a secondary that had its shaky
moments, and was largely responsible for the team's rank
of 22nd in NFL passing defense (220.4 yards per game).
Despite their propensity for giving up big plays, Falcons
defensive backs did account for 12 interceptions, including
a team- leading four for cornerback Aaron Beasley. Beasley
had the Falcons' only interception of Bulger in Week 2,
and fellow CB Jason Webster led the unit with six tackles
in that outing.
The Rams had a difficult time settling between running
backs Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson during the regular
season, a trend that did not change in the Seattle win,
when both were utilized. Faulk rushed 13 times for 55
yards and a touchdown in the triumph, and the rookie Jackson
added 36 yards on 10 carries. St. Louis managed just 30
rushing yards on 15 carries against Atlanta in Week 2,
with Faulk being held to 20 yards on 12 carries and Jackson
going for 10 yards on three totes. Faulk did score a touchdown
on the ground in that loss, and also caught five passes
out of the backfield. Martz's club was tied for 25th in
the league in rushing offense (101.5 yards per game) during
the regular season.
Attempting to slow Faulk and Jackson for a second straight
time will be a Falcon defensive unit that ranked tied
for eighth in NFL rushing defense (105.1 yards per game)
during the regular season. Tackles Coleman (40 tackles)
and Jasper (32 tackles) have been at the center of that
effort, and an underrated linebacking unit including Chris
Draft (56 tackles) in the middle and Keith Brooking (101
tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Matt Stewart (71 tackles) on the
outside has been solid as well. Brooking, the team's leading
tackler on the year, had a team-best seven stops against
St. Louis in Week 2.
FALCONS OFFENSE VS. RAMS DEFENSE
Atlanta comes into Saturday's game boasting the league's
most prolific rushing offense (167 yards per game), one
that relies heavily on the "DVD" trio of quarterback
Michael Vick (902 rushing yards, 3 TD) and running backs
Warrick Dunn (1106 yards, 9 TD) and T.J. Duckett (509
yards, 8 TD). It was Vick that had the most success against
the Rams in Week 2, rushing for 109 yards on just 12 carries
in the victory. Dunn was held to 43 yards on 14 carries
but scored two touchdowns in that game, and Duckett provided
an effective change-of-pace with nine carries for 42 yards.
The Rams ranked a distant 29th in the league in rushing
defense (136.2 yards per game) during the regular season,
but were able to hold an ailing Shaun Alexander in check
last Saturday. Alexander, who was nursing a wrist injury,
managed just 40 yards on 15 carries after going over 100
yards in each of his first two 2004 meetings with St.
Louis. Linebacker Tommy Polley tallied a team-high 12
tackles in the victory, and Pisa Tinoisamoa, who led the
team in stops during the regular campaign, added five.
Martz's team also received a strong run-stopping effort
from the line, with defensive tackle Ryan Pickett and
end Leonard Little combining for 10 tackles.
The Falcons have struggled in the passing game this year,
and finished the regular campaign ranked third-to-last
in passing offense (150.8 yards per game). Vick (2313
passing yards, 14 TD, 12 INT) had strong games and bad,
and one of the former came against St. Louis in September.
Vick completed 14 of 19 passes for 179 yards, a touchdown,
and no interceptions, and was sacked just once. The signal-caller's
favorite target that day was fullback Justin Griffith
(4 receptions, 78 yards, 1 TD), who has since been rendered
out for the year with a broken ankle. Tight end Alge Crumpler,
who led Atlanta in receptions (48), receiving yards (774)
and TD receptions (6), had three catches for 49 yards
against the Rams. No. 1 wideout Peerless Price (45 receptions,
3 TD) was held to two catches for 18 yards in that game.
Though Vick was not pressured often in his September meeting
with the Rams, Atlanta ranked near the bottom of the league
with 50 sacks allowed in 2004.
The St. Louis secondary was somewhat porous in the Wild
Card victory, allowing Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck to throw
for 341 yards and two touchdowns in the game. A team that
had managed just six interceptions in its first 16 games
did receive a rare strong moment from its secondary, however,
with cornerback Travis Fisher intercepting Hasselbeck
in the first half. Fellow CB Jerametrius Butler, who had
five of the Rams' six interceptions during the regular
season, led the secondary with six tackles against Seattle.
Safety Antuan Edwards had four stops in the win. The Rams
sacked Hasselbeck three times last Saturday, with backup
tackle Damione Lewis, who had five in the regular season,
notching one of those. The Rams ranked 11th in NFL passing
defense (198.4 yards per game) during the regular campaign,
and were tied for 24th with 34 sacks.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Rams punter Kevin Stemke had a poor day against the Seahawks,
averaging just 29 yards on his three punts. Kicker Jeff
Wilkins fared better, connecting on field goal attempts
of 38 and 27 in the victory. A St. Louis team that broke
few big plays during the regular season continued that
trend against the Seahawks, when Aveion Cason averaged
20.2 yards on five kickoff returns and Shaun McDonald
totaled 14 yards on three punt returns.
Atlanta punter Chris Mohr (40.9 avg.) and kicker Jay
Feely (18-23 FG) have been steady but unspectacular this
season. Mohr punted for a 46.9 average against the Rams
in Week 2, and Feely connected on both of his field goal
attempts, from distances of 35 and 25. Feely has not attempted
a kick of 50 or yards or greater this season. Allen Rossum
(12.4 punt return avg., 1 TD, 21.6 kickoff return avg.)
is a candidate to break a big one in the return game.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
St. Louis has played impressive football during its three-game
winning streak, but for all their improvement, the Rams
don't match up particularly well with Atlanta. The team
is weak on both lines, a bad sign against a Falcon team
that was the NFL's best in both running the football and
sacking the quarterback this year. Even if St. Louis contains
Dunn and Duckett, a Rams defense that made few big plays
all season is unlikely to corral Vick. And though Bulger,
Holt, and Bruce should be able to make some strides in
the passing game, the pressure that the quarterback will
face will likely lead to some costly turnovers. Look for
the Falcons to keep the Rams at arm's length throughout.
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NFL Divisional
Playoff Preview
(6) Minnesota (9-8) at (1) Philadelphia (13-3)
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The Philadelphia Eagles will be out to quiet a growing
number of skeptics on Sunday afternoon, when Andy Reid's
team begins its Super Bowl quest against visiting Minnesota
in a NFC Divisional Playoff.
The Eagles' 13-3 regular season record was the best in
the NFC, and also established a franchise mark for wins.
But a Week 15 injury to All-Pro wideout Terrell Owens
cast doubts on the team's ability to excel in the playoffs,
and decisive regular season losses to St. Louis (20-7)
and Cincinnati (38-10) did little to quell that sentiment.
The Week 16 and 17 defeats saw the Eagles, who had already
clinched homefield advantage throughout the NFC portion
of the playoffs, rest many of their starters for precautionary
reasons.
Minnesota comes into Philadelphia looking to build on
its biggest win of the year, a 31-17 road upset of Green
Bay in an NFC Wild Card matchup last week. The Vikings
lost seven of their last 10 regular season contests heading
into the postseason, but made the most of their first
playoff appearance since 2000 by taking down the Packers.
Mike Tice's squad will be looking to lead the franchise
to its first NFC Championship appearance since the 2000
season, when it reached the brink of the Super Bowl before
falling to the New York Giants.
SERIES HISTORY
Minnesota holds a 11-8 edge in its all-time series with
Philadelphia, but has dropped five of the last six to
the Eagles, including a 27-16 road defeat in a Week 2
Monday night affair. The Vikings' last win over the team
came in 1997, a 28-19 victory at the Metrodome, and their
most recent win in Philadelphia came during the 1985 season.
Minnesota has lost each of its last five road meetings
with the Eagles.
The Eagles and Vikings have met just once in the postseason,
a 31-16 Philadelphia victory in a 1980 NFC Divisional
Playoff.
Reid has a 2-0 record against Minnesota all-time, while
Tice is 0-1 against both Reid and the Eagles in his career.
VIKINGS OFFENSE VS. EAGLES DEFENSE
Minnesota's offensive gameplan for Sunday figures to
rely heavily on quarterback Daunte Culpepper and his litany
of receivers. Culpepper completed 19 of 29 passes for
284 yards and four touchdowns in the Green Bay win last
week, scattering the ball to eight different targets.
Randy Moss (4 receptions, 70 yards, 2 TD), who made national
headlines with a risque' end zone celebration, had the
most notable performance, with fellow wideout Nate Burleson
(4 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD) making less of a splash.
Tight end Jermaine Wiggins, who led the Vikings with 71
catches during the regular season, had three receptions
for 32 yards against the Packers. Moss had eight catches
for 69 yards and a touchdown in the Week 2 loss to the
Eagles, while Wiggins added 65 yards on eight grabs. Culpepper
completed 37 of 47 passes for 343 yards, a touchdown,
and an interception in that game, and was sacked four
times. The Vikings ranked second to Indianapolis in passing
offense (282.2 yards per game) during the regular season,
but ranked near the bottom of the league with 46 sacks
allowed.
Unlike the suspect secondary he worked against last week
at Lambeau, Culpepper will this Sunday operate against
an Eagle unit that ranks as one of the league's most highly-regarded.
Free safety Brian Dawkins (69 tackles, 4 INT, 3 sacks)
and strong safety Michael Lewis (88 tackles, 1 INT) were
both Pro Bowl selections this season, as was cornerback
Lito Sheppard (56 tackles, 5 INT). Dawkins had a key fumble
recovery against the Vikings in Week 2, and Sheppard tallied
seven tackles and a pair of pass breakups in that game.
Another potential problem for Culpepper will be the Philadelphia
pass rush, which ranked second in the NFL with 47 sacks
during the regular season. Seventeen different Eagle defenders
recorded sacks on the year, with end Jevon Kearse (31
tackles, 7.5 sacks) and tackles Sam Rayburn (28 tackles,
6 sacks) and Corey Simon (32 tackles, 5.5 sacks) leading
the way in that category. Rayburn had one of the Eagles'
four sacks of Culpepper in Week 2. Reid's squad ranked
12th in NFL passing defense (200.8 yards per game) during
the regular season.
The Vikings' on-again, off-again running game was off
again last week, when the team got just 69 yards on 20
carries from the duo of Michael Bennett (9 carries, 31
yards) and Onterrio Smith (11 carries, 38 yards). It appears
likely that Bennett will get the start on Sunday, with
Smith acting as the third-down back in the probable absence
of Moe Williams (sprained ankle). Smith was held to 28
yards on 10 carries against Philly in Week 2, but caught
eight passes for 56 yards out of the backfield. The Eagles
did not see Bennett, who was slowed by ankle and knee
problems as the regular season started, on Sept. 20. Minnesota
ranked 18th in NFL rushing offense (113.9 yards per game)
following Week 17.
The Eagles are likely to be without starting weakside
linebacker Mark Simoneau (48 tackles) when they take the
field on Sunday, as Simoneau is listed as doubtful with
an ankle sprain. Former starter Nate Wayne (29 tackles)
will likely get the start in place of Simoneau, and will
be backed by veteran Keith Adams (46 tackles). Wayne had
a sack and was credited with a pair of forced fumbles
against Minnesota in Week 2. Middle linebacker Jeremiah
Trotter (69 tackles) and strong side linebacker Dhani
Jones (71 tackles) will assume their familiar spots in
the starting lineup. Simon was the line's leading tackler
during the regular season, and will get the start on the
interior along with Darwin Walker (29 tackles, 4.5 sacks).
Philadelphia ranked 16th in the league against the run
(118.9 yards per game) in 2004.
EAGLES OFFENSE VS. VIKINGS DEFENSE
The absence of Owens (ankle) means a wide spotlight will
be cast upon Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb (3875
passing yards, 31 TD, 8 INT) and wideouts Todd Pinkston
(36 receptions, 1 TD) and Freddie Mitchell (22 receptions,
2 TD). The play of Pinkston in last year's playoffs prompted
the team to sign the more productive Owens in the offseason,
and now Pinkston will be thrust back into the No. 1 role
he once held. Pinkston did not have a catch against the
Vikings on Sept. 20, and Mitchell caught just one pass.
McNabb completed 19 of 28 passes for 245 yards and two
touchdowns in the game, and also ran for a score. His
top target that night was running back Brian Westbrook
(73 receptions, 6 TD), who had five receptions for 69
yards and figures to play an even larger role in the passing
game with Owens sidelined. The same goes for tight ends
L.J. Smith (34 receptions, 5 TD) and Chad Lewis (29 receptions,
3 TD), who will be counted on to step up their production.
Philly ranked seventh in the league in passing offense
(248.7 yards per game) in 2004, and was middle-of-the-pack
in sacks allowed (37).
A lightly-regarded Minnesota secondary was anything but
in the Green Bay win, intercepting Brett Favre four times
to play a large role in the victory. Cornerbacks Antoine
Winfield, Brian Williams and Ralph Brown had a pick each,
and safety Brian Russell notched one of his own. The production
was something of a shocking development for a secondary
that had just six interceptions in 16 regular season games.
Winfield, who led the team in picks during the regular
campaign, tallied a game-high 11 tackles. Minnesota also
sacked Favre twice last week, with linebacker Chris Claiborne
and end Darrion Scott doing the honors. Scott appears
set to start again in place of rookie Kenechi Udeze, who
has been relegated to a backup role. Udeze had one of
Minnesota's two sacks against McNabb in Week 2. The Vikings
ranked 29th in the league in passing defense (243.5 yards
per game) during the regular season, and was tied for
12th in sacks (39).
With Owens' absence likely to cause the Eagles' passing
production to decline, the team could turn to Westbrook
(812 rushing yards, 3 TD), Dorsey Levens (410 yards, 4
TD) and an under-utilized rushing game more often in the
postseason. Westbrook had more than 20 carries in a game
just once all season, and the 34- year-old Levens was
used mainly in short-yardage and goal-line situations
when Westbrook was healthy. Westbrook had 12 carries for
69 yards and a fumble against the Vikings in Week 2, and
Levens had just one carry for one yard. The Eagles ranked
24th in NFL rushing offense (102.4 yards per game) during
the regular season, but averaged a healthy 4.4 yards per
rush.
The Vikings held Green Bay's Ahman Green in check last
Sunday, limiting the All-Pro to 80 yards on 20 carries
and never allowing him to break a huge gain. Minnesota
also forced a pair of fumbles from Packers backup Najeh
Davenport, with linebacker Keith Newman and strong safety
Willie Offord responsible for the miscues. Middle linebacker
E.J. Henderson was among team leaders with eight stops
against the Packers, and Newman chipped in with six. Tackle
Kevin Williams, who had been the club's best run-stuffer
during the regular season, was limited to three stops,
but end Kenny Mixon picked up his slack by recording five
tackles. The Vikings, who ranked 21st in the league in
rushing defense (125.4 yards per game) during the regular
season, held Philly to 91 ground yards in Week 2.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Minnesota punter Darren Bennett had a day to forget against
the Packers, averaging 32.3 yards on four punts and maxing
out at 38 yards in chilly conditions at Lambeau Field.
Kicker Morten Andersen made one of his two field goal
attempts, connecting from 35 yards but missing a chip
shot from 27. Andersen made three of four field goal attempts
against the Eagles in Week 2. Punt returner Nate Burleson
netted just seven yards on his three attempts last week,
and Mewelde Moore and Onterrio Smith failed to excite
while returning kickoffs.
The Eagles have had few worries on special teams this
year, as punter Dirk Johnson (37.4 avg.) and kicker David
Akers (27-32 FG) have both been effective. Akers, who
is 17-21 from 40 yards or greater this year, made field
goals of 47 and 37 yards against Minnesota in Week 2.
Backup running back Reno Mahe (5.7 avg.) figures to handle
punt return duties in the playoffs, with rookie J.R. Reed
(23.1 avg.) on kickoffs. The Eagles did not score a touchdown
off a return in 2004, nor did they allow one.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Vikings had their way in Green Bay last Sunday, but
the Eagles represent a different animal altogether. The
Eagles' quality secondary has a better-than- average chance
of slowing down Culpepper, Moss, and the Minnesota passing
game, and the pressure the defense brings from all corners
of the field should give the quarterback plenty about
which to think. The x-factor for Philly, of course, is
an offense that could be a bit unsure of itself without
Owens. But McNabb and Westbrook give the Eagles two legitimate
game-breakers, and if bit players like Pinkston, Mitchell
and Smith can step up and contribute, the Eagles should
move the ball consistently on a decidedly suspect Minnesota
defense. Look for a rested Philadelphia team to come out
with fire and end the Vikings' Super Bowl hopes.
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NFL Divisional Playoff
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(3) Indianapolis (13-4) at (2) New England (13-3)
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The New England Patriots will have to clear a major hurdle
in their quest for a second straight Super Bowl title,
when Bill Belichick's squad plays host to the surging
Indianapolis Colts in an AFC Divisional Playoff on Sunday.
New England, which had a bye in the opening playoff round,
is vying to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl champ
since the Denver Broncos won two straight titles in 1997-98.
The Patriots looked on from afar as the Colts routed
Denver, 49-24, in an AFC Wild Card matchup last Sunday.
The win was the ninth for Tony Dungy's team in its last
10 games, and marked the sixth time this season that Indy
had scored 40 or more points.
Indianapolis will be trying to reverse its recent history
against the Patriots, which saw the team drop a 27-24
heartbreaker at New England in Week 1, as well as a 24-14
decision in last year's AFC Championship.
SERIES HISTORY
The Patriots hold a decisive 42-24 edge in the all-time
series, including eight consecutive home wins and four
straight victories overall. As mentioned, New England
was a 27-24 home winner when the teams met in Week 1.
The Colts' last win in the series came on Oct. 22, 2000,
and their most recent road win against New England came
on Nov. 19, 1995.
The 42-24 margin includes last year's aforementioned
New England home victory in the AFC Championship, which
is the only postseason meeting of all-time between the
teams.
New England is 30-9 against Indianapolis since the Colts
moved from Baltimore following the 1983 season.
Belichick is 8-3 against the Colts all-time (including
6-1 with the Patriots), while Indianapolis coach Tony
Dungy is 2-3 versus New England (including 0-3 with the
Colts). Dungy is 1-3 head-to-head against Belichick, with
the victory coming for Dungy's Buccaneers team in the
2000 campaign.
COLTS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE
Looking to build on a mesmerizing performance against
Denver last week will be Colts quarterback Peyton Manning,
who threw for 457 yards and four touchdowns in the winning
effort. Manning's favorite targets were wideout Reggie
Wayne (10 receptions, 221 yards, 2 TD) and tight end Dallas
Clark (6 receptions, 112 yards, 1 TD), with a touch of
All-Pro Marvin Harrison (4 receptions, 50 yards) thrown
in for good measure. No. 3 wideout Brandon Stokley, who
had 68 catches and 10 touchdowns during the regular season,
was held to two grabs for 33 yards against Denver. Manning
completed 16 of 29 passes for 256 yards, two touchdowns,
and an interception against the Patriots in Week 1, with
Stokley (4 receptions, 77 yards, 1 TD) and Harrison (7
receptions, 44 yards, 1 TD) serving as his top receivers
in that game. The Colts have now allowed just 15 sacks
in their 17 games, including one last week and one against
New England in Week 1. Indy was first in NFL passing offense
(288.9 yards per game) during the regular season.
All eyes will be on young Patriots corners Randall Gay
(34 tackles, 2 INT) and Asante Samuel (36 tackles, 1 INT),
two former backups that will be saddled with the task
of handling Harrison and Wayne. The two have been pressed
into regular action due to season-ending injuries to opening
day starters Ty Law (foot) and Tyrone Poole (knee). Gay
and Samuel figure to require regular assistance from safeties
Rodney Harrison (138 tackles, 2 INT) and Eugene Wilson
(67 tackles, 4 INT), who have been the bedrock of the
unit all season. The Patriots were tied for third in the
NFL in sacks with 45 during the regular season, and will
likely seek to place consistent pressure on Manning. Outside
linebacker Willie McGinest, who had the team's only sack
of Manning in Week 1, led New England with 9.5 sacks during
the regular season. Fellow OLB Mike Vrabel was second
on the club with 5.5. Pro Bowl end Richard Seymour (39
tackles, 5 sacks) is listed as questionable for Sunday
with a knee injury. The Patriots ranked 17th in NFL passing
defense (212.5 yards per game) this year.
Indianapolis running back Edgerrin James comes off an
unmemorable performance against the Broncos, against whom
he rushed 18 times for 63 yards and a touchdown. James
(1548 rushing yards, 9 TD in the regular season) has worn
down in recent weeks, having failed to average better
than four yards per rush in a game since Week 12. The
running back was a key component in the Indy attack when
the Colts faced the Patriots in Week 1, rushing 30 times
for 142 yards but coughing up two key fumbles in that
contest. James was backed last week by Dominic Rhodes,
who rushed five times for 12 yards and a score. Third-
down back James Mungro caught a two-yard touchdown pass
from Manning. The Colts totaled 76 net rushing yards last
week, well below their regular season average (115.8 yards
per game).
The Patriots' defensive strength lies with stopping the
run, as Belichick's squad was sixth in the league in rushing
defense (98.2 yards per game) during the regular season.
Inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (122 tackles, 3.5 sacks),
and Ted Johnson (77 tackles) were a big part of that effort,
with the line of Seymour, end Ty Warren (48 tackles, 3.5
sacks) and nose tackles Keith Traylor (28 tackles) and
Vince Wilfork (42 tackles, 2 sacks) playing a significant
role as well. Warren had a forced fumble against James
in Week 1, and Wilfork notched a recovery in his first
pro outing.
PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE
In an effort to keep the ball out of Manning's hands,
New England will likely turn often to running back Corey
Dillon (1635 yards, 12 TD) to chew up yardage as well
as the clock. Dillon rushed 15 times for 86 yards against
the Colts in Week 1, and has posted nine 100-yard outings
in 14 starts since. Dillon averaged a healthy 4.7 yards
per rush during the regular season. Kevin Faulk (255 yards,
26 receptions, 3 TD) and fullback Patrick Pass (141 rushing
yards, 28 receptions) have offered the team an infrequent
change-of-pace this year, but Faulk is questionable for
this week with a knee injury. The Patriots ranked 7th
in NFL rushing offense (133.4 yards per game) during the
regular season.
The job of slowing Dillon will fall to an Indianapolis
defense that has tightened up against the run in recent
weeks. The Broncos failed in their quest to establish
the rushing game last Sunday, netting just 78 ground yards
on 21 carries in the loss. Linebacker Rob Morris posted
a game-high 11 tackles in the Indy victory, and fellow
LBs Cato June (6 tackles) and David Thornton (5 tackles)
had a hand in the run-stopping effort as well. End Raheem
Brock, who led all Colts linemen with 47 tackles on the
year, had four stops, a sack, and a pass deflection against
Denver. Indianapolis ranked 24th in NFL rushing defense
(127.3 yards per game) during the regular season.
Looking to answer Manning and the Indianapolis passing
attack will be New England quarterback Tom Brady (3692
passing yards, 28 TD, 14 INT), whose year began with a
335-yard, three-touchdown effort against the Patriots
in Week 1. The yardage total was Brady's best during the
regular season. The signal- caller's own trusty trio of
receivers: Deion Branch (35 receptions, 4 TD), David Givens
(56 receptions, 3 TD) and David Patten (44 receptions,
7 TD) all had solid performances in their last meeting
with the Patriots. Branch (7 receptions, 86 yards), and
Patten (4 receptions, 86 yards) each caught TD passes,
and Givens had four grabs for 80 yards in the victory.
Tight end Daniel Graham (30 receptions, 7 TD) totaled
seven catches for 57 yards and a score against Indy, and
has remained a prime red zone threat all year. The Pats
ranked 11th in NFL passing offense (224.2 yards per game),
and the New England line allowed just 26 sacks, the fifth-lowest
figure in the league.
The Colts allowed Denver quarterback Jake Plummer to
throw for 284 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week,
though many of those yards came in the second half after
Indianapolis had already built a substantial lead. Cornerbacks
Nick Harper and Jason David combined for eight tackles
in the win, and rookie safety Bob Sanders paced the secondary
with six stops. Safety Mike Doss, who had two picks during
the regular season, posted the team's only interception
of Plummer last Sunday. The Colts had three sacks in the
Denver win, though end Dwight Freeney, who led the NFL
with 16 during the regular season, was shut out in that
regard. Brock and backup linemen Brad Scioli and Larry
Tripplett all posted sacks in the win. Brock and Freeney
both had sacks of Brady in Week 1. End Robert Mathis,
who totaled 10.5 sacks during the regular season, is not
expected to play this week due to a sprained knee. Indianapolis
ranked 28th in NFL passing defense (243.2 yards per game)
during the regular season, but was tied for third in the
league with 45 sacks.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Indianapolis kicker Mike Vanderjagt, who missed the would-be
game-tying field goal in the waning moments of the Week
1 loss, made headlines earlier this week when he stated
that the Patriots were "ripe for the picking."
Vanderjagt (20-25 FG during the regular season) did not
attempt a field goal but connected on all seven of his
point-after attempts against Denver last week. Hunter
Smith punted just twice, averaging 41 yards per kick.
Dominic Rhodes, who had a kickoff return for a score earlier
this season, broke a 36-yard return against Denver last
week. Punt return man Troy Walters had nine yards on his
only attempt versus the Broncos. The Colts gave up one
punt return for a score during the regular season.
New England kicker Adam Vinatieri (31-33 FG, 48-48 XP)
remains one of the most reliable specialists in the NFL,
and comes into Sunday's game a perfect 20-20 on kicks
of 40 yards or less this season. Punter Josh Miller (42.0
average) has been less spectacular, though steady. Faulk
(6.7 average) handled punt returns for much of the season,
but his questionable status means Troy Brown (6.9 average)
or Bethel Johnson (2.0 average) could take over there.
Johnson (24.8 kickoff return avg.) was the team's primary
kickoff return man during the regular season, and broke
one for a touchdown against Cleveland in Week 12. The
Pats gave up one touchdown each on kickoff and punt returns
in 2004.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Much has been made of the matchup between Manning and
the Indianapolis passing attack against New England's
no-name secondary, but that will be but one element in
this battle. While Manning figures to make some gains
through the air, Brady should be able to counter with
a very strong aerial arsenal of his own. The New England
offense will also have the luxury of turning to Dillon,
who arguably had a stronger year than his counterpart,
James, and appears fresher as well. Both defenses should
be very much on their heels in this one, and if field
conditions merit, a shootout could be in store. In light
of Indy's recent history in New England, one has to give
the nod in what is an even matchup on paper to the Patriots.
Look for Vinatieri to further establish his Patriot legend
with some more late-game heroics.
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