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Week 8 -
The Midway Point
By:
David Bachman Fantasy Football Editor
11/03/04
THE MIDWAY POINT
Fantasy Football owners are under
pressure with more than half the regular season over.
The postseason is around the corner, so it's imperative
to lean on studs like Peyton Manning and Priest Holmes
to lead your team to the Promised Land.
For many, the Monday following Week
8 is the perfect opportunity to pause, reflect on the
first half of the fantasy football season and consider
the taunts you'll unload on your buddies during the offseason
after you bury their sorry carcasses in the playoffs.
For those less fortunate, now is
the time to give up ... or get busy. Since giving up is
for sissies, start working on a plan of attack. Target
your weaknesses, assess your options, then don't waste
any time making your move. There still is time to for
you bottom-feeders to recover, but you'll have to get
pro-active.
Terrell Owens continues to impress
me with his hot dogging originals every week. The Ray
Lewis "dance" imitation was a beauty. I take
it Terrell has never seen a brother get Ray Lewis told
the interviewers that he did not see the celebration dance.
Don't worry Ray, even if you didn't see it (wink wink)
I think it really was meant for your hometown fans and
the national audience. We enjoyed it a great deal. Lewis
also called Owens a coward. A coward? He came, he saw,
he conquered, then he danced on the grave. Terrell punched
the playground bully in the nose in front of the whole
class and took his lunch money. If that's a coward sign
me up. Take a good long look in the mirror Ray.
On the other end of the spectrum
Jabbar Gaffney wins the weekly Plaxico Burress award for
spiking a TD pass just a few inches shy of the end zone.
Easy there big fella. Stick it all the way in before you
start celebrating.
Pittsburgh made believers out of
even the most staunch non believers with the victory over
the previously undefeated Patriots. Amazingly they play
the only other undefeated team next week in the Philadelphia
Eagles. Is this league scripted or what? How does this
sort of thing always seem to happen in the NFL? It's just
amazing that this league produces storylines like this
on a weekly basis. No sport can touch the NFL for the
ongoing saga that it is.
And you just know Terrell Owens
will have something planned for the folks at Heinz Field
next week. I'm guessing he pulls a ketchup bottle out
of his sock, pours it all over the football, and then
eats it. He will have to if he wants to top the Lewis
funky chicken dance.
 |
The weekly bonehead
fantasy team decision on my part was to bench Chris
Brown. Luckily for me also I have Priest Holmes on
that team, and I have found that the Priest absolves
all sins of ignorance. |
Second half MVP: Jamal Lewis
There are a lot of guys I could have gone with here, but
none will be more fired up than the fresh-legged Lewis.
His second-half schedule is dotted with cupcakes against
the run.
Second half Sleeper: LaMont Jordan
The Jets would be wise to start easing the workload on
Curtis Martin and we saw what Jordan is capable of against
a decent defense on Monday night.
Second half Bust: Tiki Barber
He was a first half MVP candidate, but in the second half
the G-men face five teams that rank in the top third against
the run. Factor in some vulturing from Mike Cloud, and
Tiki's lofty value will be sliding.
Bold Predictions: Onterrio Smith will
emerge as the Vikings' best running back.
Right now the Vikings' backfield is more crowded than
Tony Siragusa's jacket, but someone has to emerge from
this talented group. I believe it will be Onterrio Smith,
who returns from his four-game suspension this week and
should be in uniform against the Colts on Monday night.
Mewelde Moore was very good for three games before looking
every bit the rookie he is during their week-eight loss
to the Giants. Michael Bennett's workload is due to increase,
but you know the deal with him; the clock is ticking toward
his next malady. Moe Williams' role will continue to be
limited. Smith is the most complete back of the bunch.
He doesn't have Bennett's speed, but he is more durable
and shifty; and he has more power and experience than
Moore. When his number is called in the second half, Onterrio
will make it tough for coach Tice to take him out.
Bold Prediction: Reuben Droughns will
emerge as a top-five running back by the end of the year.
The luster of the Reuben Droughns phenomenon has worn
off a bit over the last couple of weeks. After a ho-hum
week eight performance, we've been left with, well, Brian
Westbrook – despite piling up mountains of yardage,
Droughns still has just one touchdown for the season,
a fact that is keeping him well clear of the elite fantasy
running backs. That is about to change, for three reasons:
1) When the Broncos were cruising along at 5-1, they were
doing it with the running game and good defense. Jake
Plummer averaged just under 31 pass attempts per game.
In their last two embarrassing losses, Plummer has thrown
47.5 times per contest. Trust me, Mike Shanahan will get
back to pounding the ball over the second half of the
season. 2) In 2003, Clinton Portis ran for an average
of 151 yards per game and scored 10 touchdowns after week
nine (despite missing the last two games). In 2002, Portis
had 11 touchdowns after week 11. Looks like a pattern
to me. 3) Aside from the Chargers in week 13, the Broncos
don't face a defense that allows less than 108 yards rushing
per game. Even the Chargers, who have allowed the fewest
rushing yards in the NFL, have surrendered eight rushing
touchdowns. It says here Reuben averages over 100 yards
and a touchdown per game the rest of the way, which puts
him right up there in the Edgerrin James – Jamal
Lewis range.
Bold Prediction: I will finish with
a higher passer rating than Mark Brunell.
I haven't figured out all the kinks in this prediction
yet – such as how I'm going to get into an NFL game
as a quarterback – but I'm still betting than I
finish with a higher passer rating than this bum. Through
eight games, Mark is sitting on a 69.1 rating. He also
boasts a 52.4 completion percentage and laughably low
5.3 yards per pass attempt. Brunell owns only one single-game
rating of over 72.0 and that came against the Cowboys
in week three. It bears noting that the Cowboys lost a
starting cornerback to a torn ACL in the first quarter
of that contest and were forced to use untested rookie
Jacques Reeves. By my calculations, all I have to do is
take over the Giants' offense for two plays for this prediction
to come true. I'll throw two dump passes to Tiki Barber,
and he'll catch one for his season average of 12 yards
per reception. In going one-for-two for 12 yards, my passer
rating will be 68.8. With Brunell hovering just above
that mark right now, I like the odds of my rating coming
out ahead.
Bold Prediction: Drew Brees will throw
28 touchdown passes this season.
He's already tossed 14 scoring strikes, which is about
a dozen more than anyone assumed he was going to accumulate
all season. He has solid targets in Keenan McCardell and
Antonio Gates, and LaDainian Tomlinson has been known
to catch a few (or 100 to be exact) passes coming out
of the backfield. Drew is going to give the Chargers something
to think about heading into the offseason. Do they re-sign
the quarterback who leads them into the playoffs (another
bold prediction) or go with the kid they selected in the
first round? If nothing else, I'm shocked that low-balling
a first round pick finally paid off for the Chargers.
After all, had they offered Philip Rivers a fair deal
from the beginning, Brees probably would have opened the
season on the bench.
RB’s to grab
Anthony Thomas
Thomas filled in on Sunday for an injured Thomas Jones
and will be the starter as long as Jones is injured. Chicago
faces the Giants in Week 9, which could mean that they
will be playing from behind, and that is bad news for
Thomas. If he starts, however, and you need a running
back, keep in mind he did show promise against San Francisco.
Mike Cloud
Ron Dayne has been a complete disappointment for the
Giants and has now been replaced as the short-yardage
back for New York. Cloud will get some carries near the
goal line for the Giants and could spell Tiki Barber in
certain situations. He's not an every week start, but
will be used similar to Jerome Bettis.
Reno Mahe
Dorsey Levens got the start in place of the injured
Brian Westbrook and while he didn't do anything to embarrass
himself, Mahe looked like the better running back for
the Eagles. Against Pittsburgh in Week 9, don't look for
Levens to offer much, and the Eagles will need Mahe on
screens and short passes.
QB’s to Grab
Vinny Testaverde
Testaverde, despite coming off a strong performance
against Detroit, doesn't have a full recommendation for
the near future. He does, however, face a Cincinnati defense
that is far from stout and he could be useful if you are
in desperate need of a QB. He might be good for a couple
of touchdown passes.
Drew Brees
Is there a mystery to Drew Brees that no one knows about?
Brees is the eighth-rated fantasy quarterback, but is
only owned in 38 percent of the leagues. After a huge
game against Oakland, Brees is just getting started on
a streak where he faces some very bad defenses. He opposes
the Saints, Raiders (again), and the Chiefs.
Brian Griese
Griese has been officially named the starter for Tampa
Bay, regardless of when Chris Simms is healthy enough
to play. The Bucs face the Swiss Cheese defense of Kansas
City in Week 9, which could mean a good day for Griese
and Tampa Bay.
MISERY INDEX
10) REDSKINS: Mark Brunell I hate to
say, has done what seemed impossible less than a year
ago. He has actually moved Redskins fans to beg for Patrick
Ramsey to stand behind center.
9) COLTS: When you score 35 points and
rack up 500 yards in offense, and still get your butt
kicked, you can forget about clearing a place in the showcase
for the Lombardi.
8) CARDINALS: Held the Bills to their
typical 65 yards of offense yet still got pounded like
a porn queen in a gang bang scene.
7) PANTHERS: Ok, I get it. This team
goes to the NFC Championship game every 5 years or so,
and the rest of the time they make their season ticket
holders wish they had blown their money on lottery tickets
instead.
6) DOLPHINS: At this rate I wouldn't
be surprised if the entire team doesn't quit football
and follow Ricky to ganja land.
5) BRONCOS: Jacked up two weeks in a
row by supposedly inferior teams. Now they have squandered
their nice first place cushion Worse yet in the offseason
the league will be finally forced to make the Broncos
favorite dirty little blocking technique illegal instead
of just immoral.
4) RAIDERS: Charles Woodsen spent the
first quarter against San Diego getting toasted by the
likes of Eric Parker before being mercifully injured so
he could watch the rest of the slaughter safe on the sidelines.
But the guy I really feel sorry for is Warren Sapp. He
has now been reduced to starting shouting matches with
his coach on the sidelines to get his much needed attention.
3) BEARS: The Bears finally found a
team that could compete with them in the area of incompetence.
This victory proved that they are not the worst team in
the league, but slightly better than the worst team in
the league.
2) 49ers: I tried to watch the Sunday
Night game, but after a day of watching football I just
couldn't stomach to watch whatever sport those two teams
were playing.
1) The CFL: Only there you can have
a 210 yd TD.
Heating Up
Drew Brees, QB, SD – The Chargers
are 5-3 and are in contention for at least a wildcard
berth. There no longer is any danger of rookie Philip
Rivers getting significant playing time. Expect a few
more high scoring games out west as the race goes down
to the wire. Brees will be a nice start if the matchup
is good and won’t be a terrible start even when
facing a good defense. If you are disappointed with your
QB and are in a redraft league, try to acquire Brees.
He’s probably a #2 QB on his present team so he
should be available. Owners in a dynasty league shouldn’t
give up too much because Brees could be in the same situation
next year as Jon Kitna was this year.
Peyton Manning, QB, Indy – If
you are a Colt fan you are cursing the Colt defense. If
you are a Manning fantasy owner you are thrilled that
the Indy defense is terrible. They are forcing Peyton
to throw the ball all game. This coming week the Vikings
are on the schedule so the TD passes should keep coming.
The Manning owner won’t be moving him. Just hope
that you aren’t matched up against him in the playoffs.
Plaxico Burress, WR, Pitt – Big
Ben and Plaxico have clicked since Maddux went down. Burress
has become the guy that gets the looks on 3rd down and
in the redzone. He’s a definite candidate for acquisition
at the trade deadline. Sometimes a QB and WR just get
on the same page and when that happens the WR’s
value gets a big boost. Look at Chad Johnson. He had a
breakout year with Kitna and is struggling with Palmer.
Another example was Pennington to Coles. Coles hasn’t
put up near the numbers since he left New York and until
Monday night Chad hardly ever threw the ball to Justin
McCareins.
Holding Pattern
Daunte Culpepper, QB, Minn –
Every year the Vikings go through a stretch like this.
It’s usually due to injuries to various members
of the offense. That has been the case this year also.
Randy Moss was used as a decoy in the Tennessee game but
that trick didn’t fool the Giants. Rookie Mewelde
Moore was banged up on Sunday and with Michael Bennett
still not at full speed the running game suffered. Onterrio
Smith returns and that will help. However, the key is
Culpepper. Even though he has had some excuses due to
the injuries, he hasn’t played that well the last
two weeks. Expect Duante to bounce back in prime time
on MNF. It should be a shoot out.
Reuben Droughns, RB, Den – Although
Droughns did not gain 100 yards on Sunday there were a
few developments that has me convinced that he will be
a huge fantasy factor this year. First, the Broncos are
reluctant to use any other RB. Droughns is in the game
almost all the time. Second, he’s become an option
in the passing game out of the backfield. Thirdly, some
soft defenses are on the horizon. The Falcon defense had
a chip on their shoulder after being embarrassed by the
Chiefs. All in all the numbers were not that bad. If Droughns’
owners are scared by this game they might be looking to
bail. See if Reuben is available.
Tom Brady, QB, NE – Brady is the
best example of why the best NFL QB might not be the best
fantasy QB and vice versa. Brady has won two Super Bowls
in the last three years but I’m not sure many fantasy
teams with him as the starter have won anything. I’m
sure that the Patriots don’t care. This past week
Corey Dillon didn’t play. Without him there just
isn’t enough weapons to make Brady a successful
fantasy QB. However, as been proven the past few years
that doesn’t mean that the Pats won’t be successful.
Mailbag
Ron Johnson, San Bernadino, Calif.:
What kind of value will Onterrio Smith have in Minnesota?
DB - Mewelde Moore is expected to start
at Indianapolis, but Smith is the best back on the roster
and should re-emerge as the team's featured back. Owners
who have retained him over the past four weeks will be
rewarded for their patience.
Mike Rogers, Mobile, Ala - Where is
Santana Moss this season?
DB - Moss has two sore hamstrings that
could be to blame, but a bigger reason is the team's focus
on the run this season. Unless he shows signs of life,
Moss could become waiver-wire bate in leagues with 12
or fewer teams.
Have a Great Week. Try out our NFL Sportsbooks in the
Review, and good luck in week 9 everyone. Dave B.
