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Wednesday
December 29th, 2004 Page updated at 8:20pm
By:
David
Bachman
Fantasy
Football Editor For WagerOnFootball.com
Alrighty
Then.....Where Was I ?
Looking
Forward To Next Year
There are players
who have had a good run this season but probably
will tail off in 2005. Here are some players to
consider dumping while their value is high:
Reuben Droughns: He ranks 10th
in rushing yards this year, but Tatum Bell looked
great the few times he was featured in the offense.
Bell could easily begin 2005 as the full-time starter
and relegate Droughns to fullback duty once more.
Jerome Bettis: Gosh, what a great
story his hard running and inspirational play has
been on a team with a rookie QB and a historic run
of wins. Too bad he probably will be the backup
again to Duce Staley next year. Don't expect as
many scores either. The bus has his passengers on
board right now. Trade him before school's out for
summer.
Nick Goings: Nick is another stirring
narrative in 2004. But remember who he plays behind.
Both Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster will be back
come autumn. There is a high likelihood that Goings
will be sitting on the bench.
Muhsin Muhammad: Muhammad is the
top-ranked fantasy receiver this season. That's
crazy! Mr. Hamstring has done the unthinkable. Don't
let it fool you. This was a late-career gasp of
success. Two things make trading him now brilliant.
First, he has a history of nagging injuries. Second,
Steve Smith will be back next year, and he is the
player who will be the first receiving option in
the offense.
Drew Bennett: Hasn't Bennett come
out of nowhere to be a top-rated fantasy receiver?
Well, not nowhere. It happened when Billy Volek
became the quarterback. If Steve McNair is back
next season, you'll see a drop in Bennett's numbers
as Derrick Mason, Tyrone Calico, Erron Kinney and
Ben Troupe get in on the action.
Matchups to avoid
If ever a fantasy commissioner needed evidence
of why league titles need to be decided before Week
17, this year offers plenty. Entering the final
game on the docket, seven of this year’s playoff
teams have nothing to play for in the finale. Nothing,
nada, zip, zero. The risk of injuries heading into
the time of year that means the most will undoubtedly
weigh too much on the minds of coaches everywhere,
meaning their best players won’t play the
entire game, and any player with even a mild strain
or sprain likely won’t even catch a whiff
of the field. The Steelers, Patriots, Colts, Chargers,
Eagles, Falcons and Packers cannot see their postseason
seeding rise or drop. Keep that in mind when you
set your starting lineups this week and when you
decide to alter your rules in 2005.
Be careful of starting Bucs QB Brian Griese and
WRs Michael Clayton and Joey Galloway this week.
The Cards haven’t allowed more than 184 passing
yards since Week Nine.
Titans WR Drew Bennett finally came down to earth
with just two catches for 26 yards. Now, with QB
Billy Volek injured, Doug Johnson should get the
call for Tennessee in the finale. Yes, that Doug
Johnson.
True, New England doesn’t have anything to
play for, but aren’t the 49ers out of quarterbacks
yet? TE Eric Johnson hasn’t scored since Week
Five and has been held to fewer than 18 yards in
three of the last four games.
If you have to go with Vikings RB Michael Bennett
out of necessity, we understand. But know that the
Redskins have allowed 62.3 rushing yards per game
over the past month.
Well lets get onto some more
stuff shall we?
Matchups to exploit
There aren’t many running backs in the league
hotter than Houston’s Domanick Davis right
now. Since Week Nine, he has churned out 788 rushing
yards, been on the receiving end of 304 more yards
and scored 10 times. Get him in the lineup against
the Browns’ 31st-ranked run defense this week.
Let’s say you’re hurting for wide receivers
at the wrong time. Chargers WR Eric Parker has two
100-yard showings and a couple of touchdowns in
the last three weeks, as Keenan McCardell nurses
a bad hamstring before the playoffs. If McCardell
remains out for the regular-season finale, it may
be worth taking a look at Parker, possibly along
with QB Drew Brees and obviously TE Antonio Gates
against a Chiefs secondary that has allowed 310.3
passing yards per game over the last six weeks.
Keep an eye on how long Marty Schottenheimer says
he intends to play them this week, however.
I’m not saying you should run out and acquire
him at any cost, but one sleeper for the season
finale in my mind would be Eagles RB Dorsey Levens.
I don’t think there is any way Andy Reid plays
Brian Westbrook very much, if at all, and Cincinnati
is 25th against the run.
The Broncos need a win and will be getting after
the Colts in Week 17. RB Reuben Droughns may have
surrendered some of his workload to rookie Tatum
Bell, but he’s still the primary option who’ll
be facing a Colts defense that has given up 136.8
rushing yards per game the last five weeks. Drew
Brees went toe-to-toe with Peyton Manning for much
of their game last week, so it’s probably
worth looking Jake Plummer’s way as well.
WR Jerry Porter of the Raiders is trying to make
a free-agent splash down the stretch. He has scored
eight touchdowns and averaged 88 yards over the
past five weeks.
T.O. is out and Todd Pinkston is soft. This means
if you’re looking for help at wideout, Philly’s
Freddie Mitchell, who caught a seven-yard TD pass
Monday against St. Louis, could be a serviceable
option.
Cardinals rookie WR Larry Fitzgerald has four TD
receptions the last two weeks, and the Buccaneers’
once-stellar pass defense was torched for four scores
by Carolina QB Jake Delhomme last week.
Browns RB Lee Suggs has posted back-to-back 100-yard
games. With Luke McCown not providing a lot of confidence
for the passing game, watch for Suggs to get a hefty
workload this weekend against Houston.
The Dolphins’ defense is forcing turnovers
(11 in the last three games) and facing a Ravens
offense that has thrown for more than 200 yards
exactly twice all season.
Buffalo’s defense has forced an astonishing
26 turnovers in the last six games and has 13 sacks
over that span. Make sure the Bills, sure to be
fired up with a possible playoff spot on the line,
are in your lineup against a Steelers team likely
to be resting its stars.
Final Thoughts
For those of you
still in your fantasy playoffs this year, and ready
for the last game, congratulations. You have managed
to survive. With the compliments dispersed, let’s
focus on what it will take to pull off the final
win. Week 17 in the NFL features players with distinctly
different levels of intensity.
Some teams will merely be going through the motions,
meaning that their players are more concerned with
avoiding injury than scoring you fantasy points.
Those teams have clinched playoff bye weeks, or
their seed is set, meaning that they cannot gain
anything with a win. Coaches on those teams may
even sit their stars for most of the contest. The
player who took you to the dance may be tango to
another tune this weekend.
In opposition are those guys who will be a big
part of their team’s desperate attempt to
earn a playoff berth. Coaches from those teams will
extract everything from those players, which can
lead to big box scores for you. Since you are very
motivated to win your playoffs at this point, make
it a point to figure out which players are also
motivated enough to make it happen for you.
Below are the teams with guys who still have a
strong sense of purpose in your postseason. If you
start some of them, you’ll have one more factor
in your favor. After that list are teams that have
clinched what they can, and the players they present
who may stage huge disappointments this weekend.
Teams and Players Who YOU MUST start
Jets – play all of them: Curtis Martin,
Chad Pennington, Santana Moss. They need to win,
and will play with passion.
Bills – Lee Evans and McGahee are hot, and
they will be playing for a big turnaround on the
season, but the Steelers are tough on defense, and
may be looking to keep Buffalo out of the playoffs
so they don’t have to face playing this hot
team again.
Have a Great Week. Check out the Fantasy
Football page for this weeks NFL fantasy player
rankings, studs & duds, who's Hot and who's
NOT, as well as the NFL fantasy football waiver
wire.
Try out our NFL Sportsbooks
in the Review, and good luck in week 17 everyone.
Dave B. Write
Me.
Don't You Have Some Work To Get To?
Wager On Football's Fantasy
Football expert Dave B. stops by every week to give
you the lowdown on Fantasy Football. Fantasy insight
is invaluable when it comes to gaining knowledge
about the one thing that consumes so many of us
die hard football fans for six months every year.
So Listen Up!! Then apply what you learn to your
starting lineups, you'll be surprised how much skill
your new Fantasy Football brain will contain. Heck
you could even make a smarter bet in our NFL sportsbooks.
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