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The Fantasy
Playoffs Week 16
By:
David Bachman Fantasy Football Editor
12/22/04
Alrighty Then.....Where Was I
?
I managed to squeeze in sometime
this week to read a few emails and Jim Cranford from Mobile
wrote in asking me to do some defensive stats and articles.
Well I don't normally but I thought since most of us still
reading fantasy football news are either in the finals
or semi finals of most leagues that I should at least
to this once to help you guys out. Who knows maybe some
of these guys are keeper league material too? The Top
Ten Defenders of Week 15
Donnie Edwards had another solid week with six tackles
and an interception, but it wasn’t quite enough
to top the IDP charts for a third consecutive week. In
fact, the star linebacker isn’t even in the top
ten, although he still stands tall atop the season charts.
1. Eric Barton - LB, NYJ
Barton can frustrate fantasy owners with his inconsistent
production, but when he’s good, he’s very
good indeed. And this week, he truly did it all. With
an interception, a forced fumble, a recovery, two passes
defended, seven tackles, four assists and a sack, it seemed
as if he had a hand in nearly every key play in last Sunday’s
decisive 37-14 victory over Seattle. Unfortunately, he’s
just as likely to turn in a three-tackle effort the next
time he takes the field, but his owners will savor this
one.
2. Darren Sharper - S, GB
Sharper scored the Packers’ first touchdown last
week, recovering a fumble by guard Vince Manuwai (who
had scooped up a loose ball dropped by Byron Leftwich)
and scrambling fifteen yards for the score. His efforts
weren’t enough to beat the Jaguars, but with six
tackles to go with the touchdown, Sharper was a part of
many winning IDP squads this week.
3. Nick Greisen - LB, NYG
With Barrett Green out with a knee injury, Greisen made
his fifth start of the season and wound up recording the
most tackles of any defender with 13. The third-year pro
will continue to start in Green’s absence, and is
well worth picking up if you need a late-season fill-in
to bolster your linebacker corps.
4. Mike Doss - S, Ind
Doss has been slowed by injuries this season, and hadn’t
been worth a fantasy start since his monster game against
Kansas City on Halloween. That changed this week, when
he picked off his second pass of the year, forced a fumble
and added ten tackles as the Colts overpowered the Ravens.
If he’s been idling on your bench, it might be time
to reintroduce him to your starting lineup.
5. DJ Williams - LB, Den
Williams’ rookie campaign has been highly impressive,
and his performance this weekend was the icing on the
cake. With 12 tackles, he trailed only Nick Greisen this
week. Williams also forced the first fumble of his career
and picked up his second sack. If you have him on your
dynasty roster, it looks like you have a keeper.
6. Antonio Pierce - LB, Was
Pierce is another player enjoying unprecedented success.
Undrafted out of Arizona, he saw only limited action prior
to this season. This year, he has already been credited
with more tackles than in his three previous seasons combined.
On Sunday, he scored his first career touchdown after
picking off a Ken Dorsey pass, a TD that turned out to
be the game-winner for Washington.
7. Rashean Mathis - CB, Jax
Brett Favre wasn’t at his best last week, and Rashean
Mathis took full advantage, intercepting the future Hall-of-Famer
twice and defending five passes. With five tackles thrown
in for good measure, Mathis earns the nod as the week’s
top cornerback for the first time.
8. Dunta Robinson - CB, Hou
Robinson has been piling up the tackles lately, averaging
6.6 over his last five games. This week, he racked up
seven along with an interception, a forced fumble and
a sack. Few cornerbacks are hotter right now, and he should
again be a solid IDP play this week in Jacksonville.
9. Takeo Spikes - LB, Buf
Just two tackles and one assist aren’t the numbers
you want to see from a fantasy linebacker, but thanks
to a 62-yard interception return for a touchdown and a
fumble recovery, Spikes owners will happily overlook his
lowest tackle output since week 6. He now has three interceptions
in the last five games, and climbs into the top ten in
the season IDP charts.
10. Kawika Mitchell - LB, KC
That’s more like it. After three straight weeks
with just three solo stops, Mitchell not only broke out
for nine tackles, but also fought his way to his first
two sacks of the season. Unfortunately, his recent struggles
led many fantasy owners to bench him, if not drop him
outright, and few benefited from his big game.
Just missed: Simeon Rice (DE, TB), Keith Brooking (LB,
Atl), Sammy Knight (S, Mia), Osi Umenyiora (DE, NYG),
Carl Powell (DE, Cin), Denard Walker (CB, Oak), Danny
Clark (LB, Oak), Saleem Rasheed (LB, SF) 
Well lets get onto some more stuff
shall we?
In the final two games of the fantasy
season, when you're faced with championship pressure,
it's not easy to have an inconsistent or questionable
player in your lineup. You might be tempted to use Josh
McCown, because he has a good matchup, but you certainly
can't feel comfortable putting him in your lineup. Here's
a look at some of the more promising, yet risky choices
for the final two games, and what to expect from these
erratic players at the "Big Three" positions.
Quarterbacks: Donovan McNabb has
no Terrell Owens and nothing left to really play for,
so use more reliable players such as Trent Green and Drew
Brees. Keep Brett Favre plugged in as the Packers make
their push to a higher playoff position. Jake Plummer
is no lock to perform well against the Colts, and you
should avoid him in Week 16. He's a better start in Week
17 against the Titans. Aaron Brooks might do fine against
Atlanta, who has nothing to play for this week, but he's
not a good start against Carolina in the season finale.
Marc Bulger is a risk as he returns from an injury this
week, and so is Matt Hasselbeck, who has an elbow problem.
Running Backs: Even with Eli Manning
at QB, Tiki Barber is a great start against the Bengals
this week, but not over top RBs like Edgerrin James or
hot ones like Larry Johnson. Brian Westbrook should get
even more touches with Owens out, and he is a good start
for Week 16. Clinton Portis has a friendly schedule, and
is a better start than some less reliable backs, but don't
consider him over a top back because of his matchups against
Dallas and Minnesota. Rudi Johnson is a solid start against
the Giants and an Eagles team just prepping for the playoffs
in Week 17. Like Portis, however, he should not be used
over a top back like Shaun Alexander or a recently hot
one like Julius Jones. Ahman Green is a great start for
the same reasons as Favre, and you should use him over
most of the guys in this group. Michael Pittman is unreliable,
and you can't depend on Fred Taylor, because two rushing
TDs all year is not acceptable.
Wide Receivers: Look for Chad Johnson
to reassert himself against the Giants and Eagles. Don't
bench Reggie Wayne or Brandon Stokley as the Colts push
for better playoff seeding and Peyton Manning breaks and
pads the TD record. Of the two, I'd use Stokley over Wayne.
Darrell Jackson will benefit from the return of Koren
Robinson, and should finish strong. Jerry Porter is a
good start in Week 16 against the Chiefs, obviously, but
is a risk against Jacksonville. Rod Smith isn't explosive
as he used to be, and isn't a great starting option for
your final game or two. Bench Andre Johnson, because he
is unreliable. Isaac Bruce should rebound with the return
of Marc Bulger. Ashley Lelie is inconsistent, as is Keyshawn
Johnson. Avoid using either one of those two if you can.
Eric Moulds will make some very important catches as the
Bills make a playoff push. Keep him active. Chris Chambers
is a great start against the Browns in Week 16, but sit
him when he faces Baltimore in the season finale.
Week 16 RBBC
Denver: How frustrating is Mike Shanahan? He keeps saying
Reuben Droughns is his starter, then gives the bulk of
the carries to Tatum Bell. Bell's shoulder is still reportedly
an issue and Droughns is supposedly going to get another
start, but don't take Shanahan's word for it. Bell has
rushed 33 times for 204 yards (6.2 average) and three
TDs in the Broncos' last three games, while Droughns has
36 carries for 127 yards (3.5) and one TD during that
span. The Titans sport a mediocre rush defense, but Bell
is the only one worthy of a start, and only if you lack
an established starter as the alternative.
Minnesota: Mike Tice might be the only coach more unpredictable
than Shanahan. Tice keeps switching between Onterrio Smith
and Michael Bennett, and now it seems the pendulum is
swinging back to Bennett for Week 16. Smith has run just
18 times for 62 yards (3.4) and one TD in his last two
games, while Bennett has 18 carries for 76 yards (4.2)
and no scores during that span. Whoever gets declared
the starter might seem like a good bet against the Packers,
but don't be so hasty. Tice has constantly changed his
mind on his running backs all year, so who's to say the
starter will even lead the team in carries?
St. Louis: What's it going to take for Mike Martz to
give Steven Jackson a chance to reclaim the starting job?
Marshall Faulk is really showing signs of the wear and
tear on his body -- he hasn't played a full season since
1999 and now has just 30 carries for 35 yards (1.2) in
his last three games. Jackson, meanwhile, didn't even
get a rushing attempt in Week 15, and don't believe for
a minute when Martz says he wasn't even aware of that
fact. If you believe that, then you probably also think
he simply forgot Chris Chandler's name when he was addressing
his starting quarterback's mistakes. Jackson needs to
get back in there to rejuvenate this offense. Until that
happens, steer clear of Rams players not named Torry Holt,
especially in Week 16 against a strong Eagles defense.
San Francisco: Maurice Hicks deserved better than to
get the hook as this team's starter based upon one bad
outing against a tough Redskins defensive line (83.1,
3rd). Has anyone else noticed that not only does Hicks
has a better yards-per-carry average (4.2) on the season
than Week 16 starter Kevan Barlow (3.2), but he has also
registered the higher number in that category in each
of the last six weeks? Unfortunately, Barlow still gets
his job back, though fantasy owners should expect a share
of the workload. Steer far clear of both players going
up against the fourth-ranked Bills rush defense (96.4).
Tidbits
Billy Volek has now thrown for more yards (2,305) in
his first seven career NFL starts than any other player
in history. His 98 FFL points the past three weeks also
match Priest Holmes (Weeks 6-8) and Peyton Manning (Weeks
8-10) for the second best three-week total this season.
The leader? Volek's favorite target, Drew Bennett (99,
Weeks 13-15). Need any more evidence to suggest Volek
and Bennett are must-starts in Week 16?
Add all your Falcons to the list of risky fantasy starts
for the regular season's final two weeks. Atlanta is already
locked in as the NFC's No. 2 seed, meaning a first-round
bye and home-field advantage until the conference championship
game, and only if that contest is played in Philadelphia.
Now Michael Vick might miss Week 16 to a shoulder injury,
meaning rookie Matt Schaub could be pressed into starting
duty. An inexperienced quarterback at a team's helm is
not a recipe for success -- nine players have made their
first career NFL starts in 2004, and they have averaged
165.6 passing yards, 0.89 TDs and 1.44 interceptions in
their debuts. Even this year's top three fantasy QBs --
Peyton Manning (302-1-3), Daunte Culpepper (190-0-1) and
Donovan McNabb (60-0-0) -- struggled as passers in their
first NFL starts. Knowing that Schaub probably won't beat
them through the air, the Saints will likely stack their
fronts to shut down Warrick Dunn on Sunday.
"Clinch" is not a word fantasy football owners
like to hear this time of season. Sadly, our most critical
weeks come at the regular season's conclusion, which coincidentally
is the time where many games become irrelevant and/or
unpredictable for certain teams.
For instance, the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons
have now locked up the top two spots in the NFC, so their
final two games have no impact on their playoff status.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots are on
the verge of wrapping up first-round byes, and the New
York Jets are all but assured of earning the top wild-card
spot -- no better and no worse -- meaning their final
two weeks aren't particularly important, either.
Before we go any further, here's the blanket advice statement
for the fantasy owner: Just because your player hails
from a team whose playoff spot is locked in doesn't mean
he's a bad start. It just means that you need to take
it into account, because there are circumstances by which
a team might rest your player for parts or all of a given
game to keep him fresh for the postseason. Given the choice
between two comparable players, I'd rather use the one
who still has something to play for.
Injury Updates
Travis Henry (RB) BUF
Henry, who suffered a lower-leg injury on Nov. 28 at Seattle
and has been sidelined since, has stepped up his rehabilitation
work this week, The Sports Xchange reports. "He's
running more and more," coach Mike Mularkey said.
"Again, we'll evaluate him after he gets more work
(through the week)."
Willis McGahee (RB) BUF
McGahee, who needs 53 yards for his first 1,000-yard rushing
season, has a hyper-extended and bruised right knee and
appears likely to sit out Sunday's game at San Francisco,
The Sports Xchange reports.
Brett Favre (QB) GB
Favre was not listed on the Packers’ injury report
on Tuesday despite spraining the thumb on his left (non-throwing)
hand during Sunday’s 28-25 loss to the Jaguars,
the Green Bay Press-Gazette reports.
What I'm hearing
You know someone who
has quietly had himself a stellar season? Joe Horn. The
Saints’ struggles and the notoriety of other top
fantasy wideouts have allowed the sometimes-brash Horn
to slide in under the radar to some extent, but there’s
no ignoring his 85 catches for 1,248 yards and 10 touchdowns.
He has tied his career high for TD receptions and is 92
yards away from setting a personal-best mark in that category.
He had nine grabs for 101 yards and a touchdown in Week
12 against the Falcons. Atlanta has been decent of late
against the pass until they let Panthers QB Jake Delhomme
go for 340 and a pair of touchdowns last week.
You want versatility? Since Week 10, Eagles RB Brian
Westbrook has gained 337 yards and scored twice as a runner
and accounted for 450 yards and six touchdowns as a receiver.
His role with WR Terrell Owens out will become even more
important. Now’s not the time you want to bench
him.
Five trips to paydirt and a pair of 100-yard outings
in the last four games comprise enough of a run to make
me want to advise playing Bills WR Lee Evans this week
against a 49ers defense that ranks 29th in average gain
per pass play.
Eddie Kennison has gone for at least 99 yards in five
of the last seven games and has eight TD catches over
that span. Make sure both he and Chiefs QB Trent Green
are in your lineup against a porous Raiders secondary
that gave up almost 500 yards to Billy Volek last week
and could be without its two starting corners because
of injury this week. Oh, and Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez.
Start them, too.
Buffalo’s defense is doing it all, including forcing
16 turnovers and scoring two touchdowns (three, if you
count a blocked punt last week) in the last three weeks.
I rather like the matchup the Bills have against San Francisco
this week.
If you caught wind of what San Diego did to Cleveland
last week, you’ll want to start the Dolphins’
defense when they host the hapless Browns this week. Miami
pressured and harassed Tom Brady and his receivers Monday
night as well, collecting four picks.
Final Thoughts
With two games to play,
Brett Favre already has more yards (3,527) than he posted
last season and, with good games vs. the Vikings and Bears,
could conceivably register more than in any season since
1998. Two previously struggling passers have played Minnesota
the previous two weeks and lit up the Vikings’ 27th-ranked
pass defense. First, it was Matt Hasselbeck, who looked
good the previous week against Dallas and then went for
334 yards and three touchdowns against the Vikes. Then,
beleagured Lions QB Joey Harrington netted a career-high
361 yards and two touchdowns last week. Translation: Favre
and WRs Javon Walker and Donald Driver should find mucho
success.
The Eagles have allowed
170.6 passing yards per game the last five weeks. Meanwhile,
Rams WR Isaac Bruce has nine grabs for 82 yards over a
three-game span. If Marc Bulger isn’t back under
center for the Rams on Monday night, it probably wouldn’t
be wise to expect much in the way of productivity out
of Bruce.
Favre rallied for some late yards last week, but before
that, the Jaguars had gone five straight weeks of allowing
fewer than 219 yards passing. So start Texans QB David
Carr and WR Andre Johnson (54 yards the last two weeks)
at your own risk.
Mike Tice maintains that Michael Bennett is the optimal
back for Minnesota’s three-WR sets, and he feels
Bennett gives them more of a big-play threat than was
provided by Onterrio Smith. Bennett going up against the
Packers’ run defense is enticing, but considering
the way the Vikings have played RB roulette this season,
guarantees are hard to come by — especially at fantasy
playoff time..
Don't You Have Some Work To Get To?
Have a Great Week. Check out the Fantasy
Football page for this weeks NFL fantasy player rankings,
studs & duds, who's Hot and who's NOT, as well as
the NFL fantasy football waiver wire.
Try out our NFL Sportsbooks
in the Review, and good luck in week 16 everyone. Dave
B. Write
Me.
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