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PreWeek 13
By:
David Bach man Fantasy Football Editor
12/01/04
Alrighty Then.....Where Was I
?
In our quest to help you get your
team into the playoffs, here's how we think Week 12 turned
out and a quick list of the fantasy-football top 5 things
I learned this week.
1. Pay close attention to weather
forecast for game sites
This is just a friendly reminder that adverse weather
can make things highly unpredictable for fantasy owners.
For example, if you knew that the Baltimore-New England
game would be played in rainy conditions on a rapidly
deteriorating field, you would have been smart to expect
a field-goal battle with very little passing and a lot
of running, putting greater stock in Corey Dillon and
Chester Taylor, the teams’ two top running backs
for this game. That would’ve been wise as Dillon
ended up getting 30 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown.
Meanwhile, Taylor finished with 61 yards on 16 carries.
QBs Kyle Boller (93 passing yards, zero TDs) and Tom Brady
(173 yards, zero TDs) weren’t much of a fantasy
factor, and as a result, neither were their receivers.
In Denver, where the Broncos and Raiders played in a snowstorm,
the two teams’ passing attacks flourished, mainly
because the receivers knew where they are going and the
defenders who are reacting to them are prone to slip more
often. Still, the Broncos-Raiders game was a low-scoring
affair until late in the second quarter before both coaches
figured out how to attack in the snow.
2. Portis is becoming a lock for most disappointing player
of fantasy season
After rising to the ranks of a top-five back in Denver,
RB Clinton Portis has been a huge disappointment for owners
that made him a high draft pick. With just two rushing
touchdowns in 2004, his dismal season continued last week
with 17 measly yards on six carries and zero scores vs.
the Steelers’ top-ranked run defense. The schedule
shows that things could get easier for Portis the rest
of the way, with games vs. the Giants and Eagles at home
followed by road games against San Francisco and Dallas,
plus a season-ending home game vs. Minnesota. None of
those teams are great vs. the run. The biggest problem,
however, will be how focused Portis remains and if he
gets any help at all from the QB position.
3. Palmer’s improvement is helping Rudi and Chad
Johnson
Slowly but surely second-year QB Carson Palmer is making
strides in Cincinnati. Yes, he’s still turnover-prone,
but he also completed 22-of-29 passes for 251 yards and
four touchdowns in a wild 58-48 win over Cleveland. His
growing confidence is having a beneficial effect first
and foremost on WR Chad Johnson, Palmer’s favorite
target, who had 10 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown
vs. Cleveland. WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Kelley Washington
also are contributing, and they both made TD grabs last
Sunday. With the threat of a passing game in front of
him, RB Rudi Johnson is finding more room to run, and
he exploded for 202 yards and two scores on 26 carries
vs. the Browns. Keep an eye on Palmer’s progress
and make sure to get the Johnsons in your lineup each
week no matter what, unless of course your in an 8 team
league...then I'm sure you'll have some tougher decisions.
4. Stokley deserving of playing time from fantasy owners
This season has been feast or famine for Colts WR Brandon
Stokley, and Thanksgiving Day truly was a feast for Peyton
Manning’s third receiver. Stokley caught three TD
passes and racked up big fantasy points in the process.
Despite having five games with 41 yards receiving or fewer
(he also has four games with 97 or more yards), he is
a must-play the rest of the way. Manning is merrily rolling
along on his record-breaking pace and clearly has a strong
relationship with Stokley, both as a receiver and as a
friend. If you start three wide receivers, Stokley should
be one of those three each week the rest of the way.
5. Julius Jones is emerging as the workhorse back Parcells
has desired
News And Notes
With Niners head coach Dennis Erickson being tied to
the head-coaching opening at Washington, one NFL team
said the Niners are willing to part ways with Erickson
and hire Eagles offensive coordinator Brad Childress,
whom they had interviewed two years ago before settling
on Erickson. The Niners, known for watching their pennies
closely and criticized for trimming their 53-man roster
back to 50 during their bye week to save costs, could
likely pay Childress less than the $2.5 million salary
they are paying Erickson. Niners GM Terry Donahue also
holds the Eagles’ franchise in very high regard
and sees Philadelphia as a model to aspire to. Being able
to land one of Andy Reid’s top lieutenants would
be a logical sequence for the rebuilding franchise. Childress
is also believed to be among the top candidates, along
with Chargers associate head coach/TEs coach Tim Brewster,
for the head-coaching vacancy at Illinois.
 |
According to Bills
head coach Mike Mularkey, tests on Henry's ailing
right leg revealed no broken bones. No other details
about the injury were disclosed, but the running back
will be sidelined indefinitely. Willis McGahee, who
took over the starting role in October, will continue
to handle the bulk of the carries for Buffalo. |
According to Chiefs head coach Dick Vermeil, the sprained
ligaments in Holmes' right knee are not healing as quickly
as anticipated, and the running back is at least two weeks
away from returning to the lineup. Holmes, who has missed
the team's last three games, will sit out Sunday's matchup
with the Oakland Raiders as well. He will be re-evaluated
early next week to get an update on his status. Derrick
Blaylock will get another start in his absence.
Jamal Lewis will return to practice with the Baltimore
Ravens this week, and the team is hopeful that he will
be available for Sunday's game against the Cincinnati
Bengals. The running back, who likely will be listed as
questionable on the injury report, missed last weekend's
loss to the Patriots with a sprained ankle. In eight games
this season, Lewis has 651 yards and five touchdowns on
159 carries.
In addition to a sore shoulder, Griese is nursing a strained
right hip flexor, an injury suffered in Sunday's loss
to the Carolina Panthers. The Buccaneers' quarterback
might miss some practice time over the next couple of
days, but he is expected to be in the lineup for this
weekend's mathcup with the Atlanta Falcons, according
to head coach Jon Gruden. Despite the ailments, Griese
had his best game of the 2004 campaign on Sunday, passing
for 347 yards and two TDs.
Just two days after missing three field-goal attempts
in a loss to the Carolina Panthers, Gramatica has been
released by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The kicker, who
is 11 of 19 overall this season, will be replaced by Jay
Taylor.
For the second consecutive week, Nick Goings served as
the Panthers' feature back, starting Sunday's victory
over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After turning in a career
best 121-yard, three-touchdown outing last week, the running
back followed up the performance by picking up 106 yards
on 23 carries against the Bucs. He also had three receptions
for 17 yards.
As anticipated, Moss was back in the Vikings' lineup
for Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, after
missing more than a month with a strained right hamstring.
Although the receiver did not look completely back to
full strength, he was on the field for the majority of
the team's offensive plays and finished the contest with
four receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown.
Tyrone Wheatley (RB) OAK
Wheatley will miss Sunday's game against Kansas City with
a sore left hamstring that is believed to be torn, the
Associated Press reports.
Kelly Holcomb (QB) CLE
Holcomb has three cracked ribs and is expected to miss
up to three games, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
Richie Anderson (RB) DAL
Anderson (concussion), who was inactive for Week 12's
game, participated in all of Wednesday's practice and
is listed as probable for Monday night's game, the Cowboys'
official site reports.
A decision on Chris Brown won't be made until gameday
so be prepared to go without him just in case. Antowain
Smith would be a top 20 RB if Brown doesn't play. Staley
was surprisingly deactivated last week so there is no
way of knowing if he will be back this week until Sunday.
If he plays he's a top 20 back, but if he doesn't Bettis
will start. Jamal Lewis could be back but right now Chester
Taylor remains a top 25 RB until we know for sure.
Shoulda Woulda !!! These Guys Are Plain
Sick!!
Drew Brees
When Phillip Rivers failed to get himself into camp,
it should have been clear that Brees was going to be the
only quarterback factor in San Diego, and with LaDainian
Tomlinson to provide a legitimate distraction, we should
have known that Brees would come out gunning in his fight
for his NFL life.
Give me a break. This is ridiculous!:
The team had no proven commodities at WR, the offensive
line was supposed to suck, and Brees was going to be on
the bench as soon as the team could usher in the Rivers
era in San Diego.
Jake Plummer
Clinton Portis was shipped to Washington D.C., meaning
Plummer would play a much more significant role in the
offense. His receivers would have to fill a void, particularly
third-year wideout Ashley Lelie.
Give me a break. This is ridiculous!:
Clinton Portis was shipped off to Washington D.C., meaning
Plummer would have to win games on his own, an equation
he had already proven inadequate during his time in Arizona.
Shannon Sharpe was no longer with the team and he had
taken his eight touchdown receptions and ebullient personality
with him.
Curtis Martin
We should’ve seen it coming:
Curtis Martin SAID he felt better this year than he had
in a long time, and liked getting some contact during
the preseason games. We should have known by now not to
buy the line about Lamont Jordan getting more carries
to compensate for an aging veteran.
Give me a break. This is ridiculous!:
The guy only had two touchdowns in 2003, and clearly
the team was making a move toward more offensive balance
by adding Justin McCareins. Curtis Martin is old, and
old running backs break down suddenly.
Tiki Barber
The only consistent fantasy producer for the last few
years on this team has been Barber, and he remains the
heart and soul of effort on offense. We can ignore the
talk about Ron Dayne, we all know he’s had his chance
and been found wanting.
Give me a break. This is ridiculous!:
With the quarterback controversy firmly in place, Barber
should be struggling alongside the team to gain an identity.
The squad has no breakaway receiving threats to take some
heat off of the Tiki Torch.
Javon Walker
Favre looked to Walker more and more as the 2003 season
wore on. Walker is a big target and finished with nine
touchdowns.
Give me a break. This is ridiculous!:
Hello! Obviously this is Ahman Green’s team. He
just ran for nearly 1,900 yards last year. Donald Driver
and Robert Ferguson are still around to say something
about his production. Bubba Franks will steal red-zone
scores.
Antonio Gates
Gates had a great stretch run at the end of the 2003
season. The team had no proven receiving weapons, so Gates
would be the main target. Gates is athletic, with his
collegiate hoops career to prove it.
Give me a break. This is ridiculous!:
Nobody touches Tony Gonzalez in the world of fantasy
football – Nobody! The San Diego Chargers have been
putrid for a long time.
Jason Witten
Bill Parcells likes to develop receiving tight ends.
Witten posted good numbers at the tail end of the ’03
campaign. With a new ground attack and a new receiving
corps, Witten was a constant going into the season.
Give me a break. This is ridiculous!:
The breakout tight end is supposed to be Kellen Winslow
Jr.
Eric Johnson
The 49ers had lost Terrell Owens, Jeff Garcia, Garrison
Hearst and Tai Streets, and would be desperate for offense,
from any source. Johnson was healthy.
Give me a break. This is ridiculous!:
He had never caught more than 40 balls for 362 yards
and three touchdowns in a season. The mass exodus of talent
would ensure that somebody would be tight on Johnson on
every play.
?????'s
I received one great question this week that I'd like
to share with you. It comes from Brad Izra in Rochester
NY. Brad writes - Is it too early to drop Priest Holmes?
My Answer: YES! (And no, I don't have
a problem with my caps lock button.) Holmes is the top
fantasy player in the game. You have to keep him on your
roster. It would stink if Holmes doesn't play again this
season and simply picks up dust on your bench. But it's
a million times better than the alternative: Holmes returns
and leads your opponent to victory. Either he's going
to return and play for your team or he's going to continue
sitting on your bench. Those are the only options. Do
You Agree - or NOT? Write
Me.
Some Matchup Thoughts
The Cards are throwing
in the towel on this game vs the Lions to get a better
draft pick! That's all that can explain Navarre starting
against the Lions...this should be an EASY win for the
Cards, Hell start McClown and you'll win, but Denny starts
Navarre??? I just don't get it. I give the win to the
Lions at home.
Delhomme, Muhammad,
Goings, and Colbert against the worst Defense in the land...should
be a great game for the Panthers and if you have one of
the guys listed above make sure they make your line-up.
Aaron Brooks had a decent game last week so look for the
goofy fumbling horrible QB to return this week. Poor Saints.....
The Bills will dominate
with their Defense in this game. The Phins have ZERO running
game and the Bills D is just on fire right now....not
to mention McGahee in Miami playing for the first time
since his injury...oh man it could be a sweet game for
him. The Phins will put up a little fight with Chambers
having a decent game but in the end the Bills D will over
come.
I like the Ravens at
home with their D. I even like the D to score this week
and pick Palmer off at least 3 times. The Bengals should
enjoy last week because they won't do that again for some
time. Rudi will be shut down, Palmer will be on his back
and Chad might score, but mainly run his mouth all day...I
hope Ray, Ray shuts it up, maybe he'll pretend it's T.O.
Colts will destroy the
Titans. McNair is talking about retirement, he has re-injured
his sternum so I'm sure he'll be questionable. Now do
the Titans really consider starting Chris Brown if McNair
is out? I wouldn't....Smith could have a decent game,
after all it's the Colts crappy D. Look for Manning to
toss another 4 scores and Edge to bust a C-note.
Game of the WEEK! I'd
LOVE to see the Pack win this and the way their defense
is playing it's not out of the question. Yeah they gave
up 400 passing yards to Bulger, but they only gave up
17 points and the Eagles can be run and passed on. I'm
going with the upset and taking the Packers.
If the Seahawks can't
win this game their season is over...mail it in, kiss
it goodbye! Seattle should be able to feed Alexander the
ball all night against the soft Dallas D, and Oh by the
way Alexander has his best games at night. I'm going with
Seattle thinking Alexander will have one of his monster
games, however if Julius Jones has better stats the Boys
will win this game.
Final Word
We've said this before, but now is certainly not the
time to be loyal to underachieving stars like Marshall
Faulk, Deuce McAllister and even Chris Brown. I know Brown
was a star a month ago. I know McAllister could run for
150 yards at any time. But younger, healthier running
backs like Willis McGahee, Michael Pittman and Domanick
Davis are putting up numbers now. Not a month ago, now.
It doesn't matter when you drafted Faulk. Or what you
dealt for Deuce. Now is not the time to all of a sudden
insert Duce Staley or Warrick Dunn into your lineup if
there are other safer options. Would I start Nick Goings
over Duce Staley? Yep. Would I start Julius Jones over
Brown? Absolutely. Play your best guys, and you can't
second guess if this just happens to be the first week
since Week 4 that Clinton Portis finds the end zone.
Have a Great Week. Check out the Fantasy
Football page for this weeks NFL fantasy player rankings,
studs & duds, who's Hot and who's NOT, as well as
the NFL fantasy football waiver wire.
Try out our NFL Sportsbooks
in the Review, and good luck in week 13 everyone. Dave
B.
