NFL Football Betting AFC Playoffs – Jaguars at Steelers
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NFL football betting odds: JACKSONVILLE
-2.5, Total: 39.5
NOTABLE
STAT: Jacksonville gained 224 rushing
yards the last time it played Pittsburgh
KEY
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Jacksonville
has covered seven of its last eight games
Two teams who appear
to be going in different directions take the
field on Saturday at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh
when Mike Tomlin's struggling Pittsburgh Steelers
(10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS) play host to the surging
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5 SU & ATS)
in AFC wildcard action kicking off at 8 PM ET
and televised by NBC.
In the BetUS NFL betting odds, the Jaguars are
listed at -2.5, with the total posted at 39.5
points.
Here are some of the NFL betting trends and
stats relative to this matchup:
* JAX has covered seven of its last eight games
* JAX has won six of its last eight games SU
* JAX has covered six of its last eight road
games
* JAX has played ten straight games OVER the
total
* PITT has covered two of its last eight games
* PITT has won 14 of its last 21 games SU
* PITT has covered eight of its last 12 home
games
* PITT won seven of its eight home games SU
this season
* PITT has played 17 of its last 25 home games
OVER the total
* JAX has covered the last five meetings
* JAX has won eight of the last 12 meetings
SU
* JAX has won and covered four of the last five
meetings as the road team
It can be safely said that Jacksonville is a
team that is coming on very strong, and at the
right time of the year. If we throw out the season
finale, a 42-28 loss at Houston (and we should),
we're looking at six wins and seven covers in
a seven-game period. Pittsburgh had won all seven
of its home games, and covered five of them,
yielding only nine points a game, that is until
Jacksonville came to town and shattered all of
that with a 29-22 win just three weeks ago.
It was devastating for the Steelers because
they gave up 224 rushing yards, including 147
by Fred Taylor, and were outgained 421-217. They
experienced exactly what Jack Del Rio had built
this Jaguar team for - late-season, bad weather
football, which often happens when you have to
play into the Super Bowl. The Jags run the ball
well (149 yards/game) and in the passing game
they make few mistakes, with David Garrard throwing
just three interceptions all year. This is precisely
what Del Rio wants to accomplish.
On top of all this, Willie Parker (1316 yards),
who supplied Pittsburgh with an explosive running
attack, is out for the year, having broken his
leg. The Steelers may thus find themselves more
dependent on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger, who
did a good job cutting down on his interceptions
this season (11, compared to 23 last year), but
was sacked 47 times, indicating he does sometimes
wait too long in making decisions. It won't appear
to help that Pittsburgh will be starting a third-team
left tackle, Trai Essex, because of injuries
to Marvel Smith and Max Starks. Defensive end
Aaron Smith is also out. Pittsburgh lost three
of its last four games, two of them to teams
they will almost certainly have to topple to
make a return trip to the Super Bowl (Jacksonville
and New England).
Before we accompany the Jaguars arm-in-arm to
their next playoff destination, however, let's
take a look at the case that can be made for
the other side.
First of all, it needs to be pointed out that
while Roethlisberger (65%, 32 TD's, 3154 yards)
has led the Steelers to the playoffs and the
Super Bowl title in his brief career, this will
be Garrard's first playoff start, and on the
road no less. As wide as the gap was between
these teams yardage-wise in the last meeting,
Pittsburgh was still tied with the Jags at 22
until Garrard led a fourth-quarter drive to win
it. Remember also that the Steelers were just
coming off a loss to the undefeated Patriots,
who everyone was gunning for.
Najeh Davenport, who will be in the backfield
in place of Parker, ran for 499 yards and 4.7
yards a carry this season, so while he's not
the guy to break long runs, he isn't a stiff.
The defense misses Aaron Smith, as mentioned,
but still has stars in James Harrison, James
Farrior and Troy Polamalu. Meanwhile, Jacksonville
is not without some injury concerns of their
own; they'll be without defensive stalwarts Marcus
Stroud and Mike Peterson.
The Jags have rather non-threatening receivers,
while Pittsburgh has the emerging Santonio Holmes
and Heath Miller, along with Super Bowl MVP Hines
Ward, giving them an edge in the passing game.
In a 29-year period of the wildcard round, only
ten times has a team been a home underdog. And
those teams have covered eight of ten during
that time. You could do a lot worse for a home
dog than a team that has won seven of its eight
home games, allowing just 12 ppg and 219 yards
a contest, possesses a Pro Bowl quarterback,
has a kicker (Jeff Reed) who has hit 13 of 14
field goals in a very difficult place to kick,
and is just a year removed from a Super Bowl
title. Hey - and let's not forget that as well
as Taylor and the Jags did in the earlier meeting,
the Steelers have still allowed just 90 yards
a game on the ground and one 100-yard rusher
in the last 31 home games.
Remember this as well - no visiting team has
ever come to Pittsburgh and won twice in the
same season.
Finally, I see that the whole world, including
the media, has left Pittsburgh for dead and is
piling on the Jacksonville side, prompting this
game to be bet up to 2.5 and maybe even higher
before all is said and done. That's always a
sign of trouble, because the general public and
the media have both been known to back what seems
patently obvious. Handicapping football games
does not involve observing what is patently obvious,
but what others may not be considering. The public
supplies the value for the handicapper. We may
not prove to be right on this one (and we're
tackling the total at TotalActionExtra), but
we have a few factors on our side and we'll grab
points with the 2.5-point dog in the BetUS NFL
betting odds, expecting an inspired effort from
the Steelers, who will not go down easy.
JAY'S PLAY: PITTSBURGH
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Posted on 1/4/2008 3:47:12 PM
NFL Football Betting AFC Playoffs – Jaguars at Steelers
By Charles Jay
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