NFL Football Betting - AFC Playoffs, Jaguars at Patriots
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NOTABLE STAT: Fifty TD passes for Tom Brady
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: New England
has covered one of its last six games
(For more useful trends and stats, visit our
unique Matchup Tool)
After a bye week, the New England Patriots (16-0
SU, 10-6 ATS) take the first step toward putting
the finishing touches on an historic season on
Saturday when they play host to the Jacksonville
Jaguars (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS), winners over Pittsburgh
last weekend, in the Divisional Round of AFC
play. Kickoff time from Gillette Stadium (artificial
turf) is 8 PM ET.
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the
Patriots are listed at -13, with the total posted
at 49.5 points.
Here are some of the NFL football betting trends
and stats relative to this matchup:
* JAX has covered seven of its last nine games
* JAX has won four of its last five games SU
* JAX has won and covered six of its last nine
games on the road
* JAX has covered six of its last eight games
as an underdog
* JAX has played eleven straight games OVER
the total
* NE has covered 15 of its last 22 games
* NE has covered one of its last six games
* NE has played 16 of its last 22 games OVER
the total
* NE has covered seven of its last ten home
games
* NE is 6-5 ATS as a double digit favorite
* NE has played eight of its last 11 home games
OVER the total
* NE is 4-1-1 ATS at home in the playoffs under
Belichick
* NE is 12-2 SU in the playoffs under Belichick
* NE has won six of the last seven meetings
SU
* NE has covered five of the last six meetings
In this undefeated season, New England has actually
played two different seasons - first, the season
that very much resembled Tiger Woods cutting
a swath through the rest of the PGA Tour, winning
the Masters by 12 shots and the U.S. Open by
15 shots. Then, the season where they were still
the undisputed best in the league, but like Woods,
came back toward the field a little. The Pats,
if you noticed, weren't covering the spread when
those really big numbers came out; in fact, they
had just one covering effort in their last six
games.
Look at the competitive games they played down
the stretch, against Philadelphia, Baltimore,
the Giants, even, I dare say, the New York Jets.
As we know, the Pats could easily have had three
losses, maybe four. There were narrow escapes
against the Colts, Ravens and Giants, and a halftime
deficit to the Eagles that had to be overcome.
The point is, it may not be wise to look at
these guys as the monster squad that ramrodded
the first eight opponents - three of which wound
up in the post-season. No, they're human. And
depending on the weather, they can become even
more human.
The superlatives are there, obviously. The Patriots
set an NFL record for most points scored in a
season. Tom Brady had a record 50 touchdown passes.
Randy Moss caught a record 23 TD passes. Wes
Welker caught 112 passes. Seemingly, all 53 players
on the roster scored touchdowns.
But interestingly, there is not a whole lot
of difference in the defenses. New England allowed
288 yards a game, while Jacksonville surrendered
313. And though anyone would admit that even
if David Garrard (64%, 19 TD's, 3 INT's) is an
efficient quarterback, there is no comparison
in the quick strike capability of these offenses,
there is a thing or two that can help to close
the gap a little. For starters, the Jags can
play the smashmouth game, something the Pats,
who allow 4.4 yards a carry, won't welcome.
And Jacksonville doesn't wilt in hostile environments,
as evidenced by its two wins at Heinz Field -
the only two defeats the Steelers suffered there
all season.
The Jaguars are
very physical, mentally-tough, road-savvy,
and have the ability to "shorten" the
game. At this generous number, that's enough
for us. We'll side with the Jags, the 13-point
underdog in the BetUS NFL betting odds.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: NEW ENGLAND
-13, Total: 49.5
JAY'S PLAY: JACKSONVILLE
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Posted on 1/10/2008 9:19:12 PM
NFL Football Betting - AFC Playoffs, Jaguars at Patriots
By Charles Jay
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