Week 9 NFL Handicapping Stats

I noticed something pretty amazing when I was browsing through the NFL stats late last week. I was focusing on pass defenses, because the ability to keep teams from moving the ball downfield through the air is one of the most vital skills a team can have. That's particularly true down the stretch of the season when many games are won and lost based on what happens in two-minute drills at the end of the first half or the game.

If you watched the recent Minnesota/Dallas game on TV, you heard the announcers spend literally the whole game talking about how Minnesota had the worst pass defense in the league. Tony Romo was on pace to set a record for completions. The Vikings had no hope to be competitive if they couldn't stop the pass. That kind of stuff.

When the game was over, Romo did have good stats. But the Cowboys only scored 17 points on offense all day (seven more came on a blocked field goal return). Any defense that holds the Dallas attack to 17 points is doing a great job, not a bad job. Why weren't the announcers focused on that?

Then, a few days later I was looking at the defensive passing stats. Minnesota was the worst in the league in total yards allowed per game. But it wasn't as bad as it seemed. In fact, you could make the case that #32 Minnesota had a better pass defense than #2 Denver!

Check it out (all stats through the first 8 games for each team):

Opponent's QB Rating:
Denver: 99.2
Minnesota: 89.5

Opponent's TD/Interception ratio:
Denver: 11-6
Minnesota: 9-7

Average Yards per Pass Attempt:
Denver: 7.8
Minnesota: 7.3

Sacks:
Denver: 13
Minnesota: 16

Total Points Allowed per Game
Denver: 27.3
Minnesota: 19.0

Isn't that amazing? Across a full spectrum of stats, there's no way in the world Denver has a better pass defense than Minnesota does! The Vikings have more interceptions and sacks, allowed fewer passing touchdowns, allowed fewer yards per attempt, forced a much lower passer rating on opponents, and the net result was that they were allowing less than 20 points per game overall while Denver was allowing more than 27 points per game.

Yet Minnesota was "ranked" as the worst pass defense in the NFL, while Denver was second best. You've got to be kidding me!

This is why you've got to be careful with NFL statistics (and with the things announcers say on TV!). Pro defenses tend to prioritize one element or play or another. Some focus on stopping the run, and don't mind giving up passing yardage that moves the ball between the 30's but doesn't hit paydirt. Some teams focus more on protecting against the long ball, and give up yardage on the ground as a result.

It's possible for a good or average defense to look horrible in an area they aren't prioritizing. But, that doesn't mean the defense as a whole is horrible, or that this particular area is ready to be exploited in a way that really matters. Dallas had a good passing day against Minnesota. Yet, they only scored 17 offensive points when the Vegas line had projected about 28 (line of 9.5, total of 46 means a projected score of 27.75 to 18.25). It was a great defensive game for Minnesota, not a bad one!

Whether you're evaluating defenses in pro football, you need to take a comprehensive approach so that you can really pin things down. Don't focus so much on passing yards allowed, or rushing yards allowed. Look at TOUCHDOWNS allowed! That's what defenses are trying to prevent. Look at total points allowed (because field goals can add up too). Look at high impact plays like sacks and takeaways. If a team allows 50 yards on passes then takes the ball away, it's the same as allowing 20 yards and forcing a punt. That's another one, look at how many times they force an opponent to punt.

You'll find that different defensive strategies can yield the same kind of quality results. You'll also find that really bad defenses will have some stat area where they look good. Don't be fooled!

Do the same thing when evaluating offenses. Look at the stuff that matters on the scoreboard, not the stuff that looks good on paper when taken out of context. Too many fans are worried about fantasy league stats. Picking winners is going to be just a fantasy if you don't know what's really happening on NFL football fields!

Article Used By Permission From: PicksOnline.com

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