Week 2 NFL Handicapping Recap

Last season, there were some early scoreboard blowouts that led people to believe we were going to have another "year of the favorite" in pro football. And, even if they weren't prone to take every favorite, they believed that certain teams were going to be dominant on a regular basis.

Despite a reputation of parity in the NFL, we suddenly saw Indianapolis laying a whopping 18 points to Tennessee in Week Five of last season. The Colts had covered a 13-point spread in a 43-24 rout of Houston in Week Two (gaining over 500 yards in the process), and the wagering public was sure they'd toy with rookie Vince Young and Tennessee. When it was all said and done, Indianapolis was lucky to escape with a 14-13 victory.

They would subsequently be laying 7 points on the road at Tennessee in early December. Tennessee won that game 20-17.

Just because top notch teams win blowouts in September doesn't mean they're going to keep doing that all season. In fact, the reverse is true. Even the very best teams have found it better to coast a bit during the mid part of the season in hopes of peaking at the right time.

Indianapolis would ultimately go on to win the Super Bowl last season. Yet, they were only 3-7-1 ATS as favorites in the regular season after that early blowout of Houston. The perception that Indy would roll over inferior opposition cost Las Vegas bettors a lot of money.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Oakland Raiders put together a team in 2006 that may have been one of the worst in the modern era. Well, the defense was great. But, everything else about the team reeked. The offense was an absolute embarrassment. After an 0-4 start straight up and against the spread to the season, the wagering public completely gave up on the Raiders. They loaded up on opponents regardless of the number.

Oakland would cover six if its next seven games, even though five of those games came against eventual playoff teams, and a sixth came against the defending Super Bowl champion.

As weird as it might seem, you have to use September NFL results as "inverse" indicators for many teams. Whoever starts out well is likely to become overpriced by oddsmakers and the wagering public. Whoever starts out slowly could become a value team because nobody gives them any respect.

I can already tell from overhearing chatter in the sportsbooks that the public is about to do the wrong thing once again! Early blowouts are causing too much excitement about some teams, too much scorn for others. We found out how much when the dogs went nuts in week-two!

Remember that the following factors influence top notch teams:

*They want to start the season well to send a message to the league and to get an early leg up in their divisional races.

*They can't play at a peak level for 16 games though. It's physically impossible. This kind of team tends to have a strong first month, tread water for two months, then try to peak late. There's no prize for being the best team in October. Peaking in November leads to a wasted season.

*As a result, their early victories drive Las Vegas pointspreads up just as the team is about to hit cruise control for awhile. The value is in going AGAINST these teams at high prices once they take their foot off the gas.

The following influence bottom of the barrel teams:

*They don't have the pieces in place to start the season effectively, and often get steamrolled by good teams who do.

*They make adjustments that help fix many of the early problems just as the better teams are getting ready to plateau.

*They look so bad in the game films that upcoming opponents don't take them seriously.

*As a result, they start lifting their level of play at a time when they can catch better teams napping. The public is still betting on old perceptions. These live dogs jump up and bite them.

As we watch games on TV in September, we should be mapping out strategy for October and November. In the past, many have done the exact opposite of how it should be done. The uninformed public looked for "take" teams and "go against" teams based on scoreboard results. This time around, try using the early scores as an "inverse indicator" for the rest of the season. It takes a little courage to pull the trigger with this approach. History makes it very clear that you'll have success doing so.

The stars of September are going to be the overpriced favorites of October and November. The duds of September will be value teams offering great value.

Article Used By Permission From: PicksOnline.com

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