NFL - Jacksonville at New Orleans - 1:00 PM EST – CBS
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Jacksonville came up
with a big 24-23 win at Tampa Bay to stay in
the thick of the AFC playoff picture. Down starting
QB David Garrard for a few weeks, the Jaguars
will continue relying on defense and the running
game to win. Both will be tested in New Orleans
vs. a Saints team that has won its L3 games.
On defense, the
Saints are allowing a respectable 3.6 YPR,
and on offense, they are finally showing the
explosiveness that led them to the NFC title
game. In Sunday’s 31-10 win, Drew Brees
was 31 of 39 for 336 yards and 4 TD’s.
HC Sean Payton’s team figures to be the
favorite here, but is on a 1-8 ATS slide in the
home chalk role. Overall, they’ve lost
their L6 games ATS in front of the home folks.
Jacksonville is on a 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS run
vs. the NFC.
Praise was heaped in the direction of Jacksonville
after QB David Garrard proved worthy of the starting
job, but his loss to injury put the team back
towards the bottom of the barrel. The defense
will be asked to carry the load and their inability
to stop the run may prove deadly.
The Saints were well on their way to one of
the most catastrophic falls in NFL history, but
their fortunes appear to be reversed and now
there is hope for a better tomorrow. Losing RB
Deuce McAllister may prove to be blessing as
the rise of Reggie Bush may have needed a push.
Keys to the Game
This is a southern
connection we don’t
see very often and it should be a good one. The
Jaguars have to run to be effective, playing
like a classic front-runner. If ever the Jags’ passing
were to find itself it would against Saints’ secondary.
Reggie Bush won’t spend much time attacking
the middle of the Jacksonville defensive front.
Nevertheless, he would be wisely used on a few
wheel routes and out in the slot on short up-and-out
patterns with receivers clearing out as Drew
Brees rolls right. Brees does good work on pump
fakes and should expect them to work against
the Jags’ defensive backfield.
Gambling Trends
- The Jaguars are 22-10-1 ATS against non-divisions
clubs.
- The Jaguars are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 NFC
matchups.
- The Saints are 11-24 ATS in home games in Weeks
5 through 9.
- The Saints are 3-13 ATS as home favorites the
last four years.
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