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banged up secondary appears to be the main culprit
for this recent trend in defensive mediocrity.
Through their first 10 games, only one team was
able to pass for over 200 yards on the Bears.
Opponents only averaged 153.6 PYPG in those games.
From week 11 on, they have given up 260+ passing
yards in 5 of the 7 games they have played and
opponents averaged 253.1 PYPG. The Saints’
weakness is definitely their rushing defense which
yields 128.6 RYPG. In games in which they allowed
over 100 RYPG, they were only 4-7 ATS. The Bears
have a very consistent rushing attack that has
been held to less than 100 yards only once in
their last eleven games.
As great as the Saints were
at covering on the road this season, the Patriots
were even better. ATS the Patriots were 8-1 while
playing away from home. This isn’t a new
trend for the Pats who are 20-7 ATS in away games
over the last three seasons. They, like the Saints,
also relish in the role of underdog. Since 1992
they are 70-42 ATS when getting points. The Colts
went undefeated at home this season and were a
respectable 6-3 ATS. Although the Colts struggled
late in the season mainly due to defensive woes,
they seem to have gotten their act together. They
held their playoff opponents to 8 and 6 points
respectively, by far their two best efforts this
season. Even more impressive has been their effort
against the run. Over the last two weeks their
opponents rushed for 44 and 83 yards. During the
regular season, their opponents rushed for 173
RYPG, bad enough for last in the NFL. Even though
the Patriots have had the Colts’ number
over recent years, the Colts have won the last
two meeting SU and ATS. Neither of those victories
came during the postseason or at home. To accomplish
both, the Colts will need to defeat Tom Brady’s
12-1 postseason record and his 10-0 dome record.
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and possible line changes, keep an eye on Sportsbook.com’s
“Betting Trends”. These trends are
an excellent way to gauge a possible movement
in the line.
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