NFL Betting Analysis - Patriots vs. Colts Recap
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Well the dust has
settled, and the Patriots are still undefeated.
By now you’ve undoubtedly
heard the fallout of “Superbowl XVII and
a half”. Despite the Patriots getting the
better of their bitter rivals, the only thing
we know for certain is that the Colts and Patriots
are heads and shoulders above the rest of the
NFL right now.
Before the Colts
betting faithful jump off the bandwagon, do
not forget that the Colts were missing their
most prolific receiver, Marvin Harrison, who
remains out with a knee injury. It can not
be overlooked that Harrison’s
presence on the field completely changes the
way in which Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are
covered. Clark was absolutely ineffective yesterday
only catching two balls for a measly fifteen
yards. The Colts receivers only managed 225 yards,
and 114 of those were by Joseph Addai.
Speaking of Addai, everyone keeps saying that
the only way to beat the Patriots is to run on
them. The Pats allow 90.6 rushing yards per game,
and gave up 112 to Addai, who averaged 4.3 yards
per carry. But that becomes null and void because
the only reason Addai had success against this
defense is because he has the second-best offensive
line in the league and teams respect Peyton Manning.
Manning was held in check for most of the day
going 16-for-27 and 225 yards while coughing
up a game-clinching fumble at the end of the
game. Yet, it is hard to fault Manning, who did
an excellent job of taking his shots down the
field without his number one receiving option.
On New England’s
side, Tom Brady had his worst outing of the
year and still managed 255 yards and three
touchdowns. The Tampa-2 defense did an excellent
job of taking away the deep ball and the presence
of Bob Sanders knocked Brady to 21-of-32.
More importantly is that the Colts held Randy
Moss in check until the fourth quarter, and this
is why the Patriots are ultimately an unbeatable
team. Dungy and the Colts defense muffled the
usually explosive Patriots offense for most of
the game, while Peyton Manning played keep-away
by running the Pats defense in to the ground.
But then Brady unleashed a 55 yard bomb to Randy
Moss that took the Patriots to the Indianapolis
three-yard line. The play led to a passing touchdown
to Wes Welker to pull the Patriots within three
points of the Colts.
Then Brady connected
with Stallworth on the next drive for a 33
yard gain that setup another passing touchdown
that gave the Patriots the 24-20 lead they
never relinquished. And that is the key here.
As much as Indy controlled this game, they
simply could not take the Patriots out of it
because the deep ball is something that Brady’s
Bunch excels at.
What this game proved is something that the
betting community already knew. The Colts are
a team that can seize control of the game by
pounding the rock and setting up the play-action
pass to get on the scoreboard. And now we know
for certain that you can never, ever count the
Patriots out of a game even if they are losing.
If you are feeling
gun shy about betting on the Colts to repeat
as Superbowl Champs, relax for a second. The
Colts know the Patriots inside and out and
will have Marvin Harrison the next time these
teams supposedly meet in the AFC Championship
game. With Harrison back, the Colts won’t
need phantom pass-interference calls to beat
this team. For now, however, the Patriots remain
the team to beat and The Wrath of Uncle Bill
continues.
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Posted on 11/6/2007 1:16:49 PM
NFL Betting Analysis - Patriots vs. Colts Recap
By Tim Furious
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