NFL Betting: The Real Super Bowl
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The Super Bowl is the busiest day of the year
in NFL betting. Consider this a warmup.
The eyes of the football world will be focused
on the RCA Dome this Sunday afternoon. The Indianapolis
Colts are hosting the New England Patriots in
what could very well be the best game of the
season. Both the Colts and the Patriots are undefeated;
New England is a pristine 8-0 straight up and
against the spread, while Indianapolis is a mere
7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS.
The NFL odds at
press time had the Patriots pegged as 6.5-point
favorites, with a sky-high total of 57. If
reports on the online betting patterns are
accurate, an overwhelming majority of bettors – around 90 percent – are
taking New England and the over. If you like
to play the parlays, this would be the natural
double; the higher the score, the greater disparity
we should see between favorite and underdog.
It’s hard
not to like what the Pats have done this season.
They have emasculated their opponents by an
average score of 41-16. Those opponents include
a pair of very good teams in the Dallas Cowboys
and Washington Redskins, who are a combined
10-2 SU in games not involving New England.
The additions of wide receivers like Randy
Moss on offense and linebacker Adalius Thomas
on defense have the Pats performing at peak
efficiency: 70.6 percent DVOA (Defense-adjusted
Value Over Average), according to the stat-conscious
folks at Football Outsiders. That makes New England
the best team the NFL has seen in a dozen years.
The second-best?
The Colts, at 57 percent DVOA. The defending
champions are nothing to sneeze at, winning
games 32-15 on average and putting the boots
to three of the Top 10 teams in the league
in terms of efficiency: Tampa Bay, Tennessee
and Jacksonville. Indianapolis has the top rushing
offense in the NFL, with Joseph Addai and Kenton
Keith operating behind the best offensive line
in the business. All hands are expected to be
on deck for this matchup despite several Indy
players sitting out Wednesday’s practice.
New England counters
with the No. 1 passing offense, as the infusion
of wideout talent has allowed QB Tom Brady
to put up the biggest numbers of his career
by far – including a 136.2
passer rating, eclipsing Peyton Manning’s
102.9 rating. However, both these teams have
excellent defenses, with New England third in
the league and Indy sixth. This could turn into
a run-first slugfest, in which case the Colts
have an excellent chance of cashing in for the
fourth time in a row against the Pats.
Kick-off is at 4:15 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
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Posted on 11/1/2007 4:45:29 PM
NFL Betting: The Real Super Bowl
By BetUS Staff
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