Betus Trends - Re-cap & Look
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I feel bad for the Arizona Cardinals. They lost
Matt Leinart two weekends ago. Then, just this
past weekend they lost a resurgent Kurt Warner.
I feel bad because they signed Tim Rattay who
proved to be not so good in his first foray into
the NFL.
What really sucks
for the Cards is that they have to play Rattay’s
old team this coming Sunday, the Washington
Redskins. The Redskins, whose defense was like
Swiss cheese last season, has a terrific D
this season. They will squash the 9 point underdog
Cardinals this Sunday.
That’s not the only big injury from this
past Sunday. The Tennessee Titans may have lost
their franchise, quarterback Vince Young, this
weekend in their game against the Houston Texans.
If they haven’t lost him, then he’ll
probably be somewhat slowed in the game. That
makes the Texans a pretty good bet at – 1.5
points against the spread to beat cover at home.
The Texans received the kiss of death by being
showcased in Sports Illustrated shortly after
the first NFL weekend of the season. Since then,
they’ve slowly gone back to their former
selves. But, if Vince can’t make those
explosive cuts down the sideline or through the
Texan defense, then expect the Texans to bounce
back this weekend.
My favorite historical trend of the year, only
because I want to see how powerful it is, is
that the Cowboys hardly ever cover at home when
the total in their games is higher than 44 points.
The BetUS total in their game this weekend is
47 and climbing. They play a very stout Minnesota
Vikings team and the Boys are favored by 10 points
against the spread. This is going to be a great
game to watch. The Vikings will not go away easily.
They play good defense and have one of the top
running backs in the league. The Cowboys gave
up a lot, emotionally, in their game versus the
Patriots last Sunday. Can they bring it up to
the necessary level where they will cover 10
points against a decent NFL team? Or, will they
play below average and just try to win the game?
The Vikings look solid to beat that spread.
The New England
Patriots are on the road and, get this; they
are an 18 point road favorite! Granted, they
are playing the Miami Dolphins who are just
a bad, bad team - - but, 18 points? That is
crazy. Eventually, the Patriots aren’t
going to cover a spread or they’re going
to have a bad game, or something crazy is going
to happen to one of their key players - - maybe,
he’ll get the flu - - or Belichick will
forget how to coach for just a second. I don’t
know. Something is going to happen. It has to,
right? 18 points in a NFL game? The truth about
this game is that you can throw out all trends.
18 point is just an impossible point spread to
deal with in an NFL game. Impossible.
Suddenly, everybody
loves the New Orleans Saints again. They are
a BetUS 8.5 point favorites against the spread
versus the Atlanta Falcons at home. I have
to admit that I’m sort of in love
with them again. They were legit this past Sunday
night versus the Seattle Seahawks. If they bring
pressure like they did versus the Hawks, and
there’s no reason to believe they won’t,
the Saints should coast against the Falcons.
A powerful trend, up until this season, has been
the Saints versus their fellow NFC South foes.
That trend might come back this season starting
this weekend.
I also like the
Steelers to man-handle the Broncos on the road.
The Steelers are BetUS – 4.5
road favorites against the spread. The Broncos
won’t stop that Steelers’ passing
game.
Take a hard look at the Colts vs. Jaguars game
this weekend as well. The Jags are a BetUS +
4 home dog versus the Colts. If you believe the
Jags can score at least 22 points in this one,
then the Jags are a great bet. They always cover
or beat spreads where they score 22 points or
more.
Until next week, good luck!
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Trends >>
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Posted on 10/17/2007 5:20:13 PM
NFL Betting Trends: Re-cap & Look Forward
By D.S. Williamson
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