Monday Night Football Betting:
Colts vs. Jags
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NFL betting odds: Indianapolis -4, Total:
44.5
NOTABLE
STAT: Indianapolis is 56% on third down
conversions
KEY
NFL BETTING TREND: Jacksonville is 9-1 ATS
as a home underdog
The Indianapolis Colts (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS), one
of two undefeated teams left in the NFL, try
to keep their record perfect on Monday night
when they visit Florida to play the Jacksonville
Jaguars (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) on the natural turf
at AllTel Stadium. Game time for the Monday night
contest is 8:30 PM. On the BetUS MNF betting
line, the Colts are listed as four-point road
favorites, with a posted total of 44.5 points.
These two teams are both members of the AFC
South, so they play twice a year. Last season
they split the two meetings; the Colts won 21-14
as a 6.5-point favorite in their own RCA Dome,
then went to Jacksonville as a one-point favorite
and were pasted 44-17 by a Jaguar team that shredded
the Indianapolis defense for 375 rushing yards.
The Colts are doing a much better job against
the run these days, yielding just 105.4 yards
a game and 4.2 yards a carry. Right now, though,
the Jacksonville ground attack is starting to
gain some traction. Last week against Houston,
in a 37-17 home win, the Jags got a combined
215 yards from Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor.
That, together with relatively mistake-free quarterback
play from David Garrard (66.7%, 6 TD's, no INT's),
has given Jacksonville more than adequate offense,
although the wide receivers have not been known
to scare anyone.
Peyton Manning is having an outstanding year
as usual, completing almost 70% of his passes
for 10 TD's and two INT's for a 108.6 passer
rating. Marvin Harrison (17 catches), who was
held out of the lineup two weeks ago against
Tampa Bay, has not been as big a factor as in
the past, but Manning has found enough of Reggie
Wayne (28 catches, 369 yards, 4 TD's) and tight
end Dallas Clark (26 for 300 and 5 scores) that
the engine has kept purring. Indy has had to
endure some injuries, but Harrison is slated
to return, along with running back Joseph Addai
(407 yards, 4.8 ypc) and Pro Bowl safety Bob
Sanders.
Let's take a quick look at some of the pertinent
trends, then we'll expand upon some of them:
* JAX is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog
* INDY is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite
* INDY is 2-6 ATS their last eight road games
* INDY is 7-1 ATS as a Monday night road favorite
of 2 or more pts.
* INDY is 9-3 ATS as a road favorite with revenge
* JAX is 8-4 ATS in their last dozen home games
* JAX is 2-10 ATS vs.an opponent off back-to-back
SU wins in October
* INDY is 3-9 ATS on the road on Monday nights
* JAX is 5-2 ATS at home on Monday nights
Let's take those top two trends, for example.
One of the reasons Jacksonville is so strong
getting points at home is because they don't
ALLOW many points at home. In their last 13 home
games, the Jags' defense has been stifling, surrendering
an average of just 12.3 points a contest. And
Indianapolis, because of its offensive prowess,
is often overpriced, and often switches playing
surfaces on the road, which can slow down their
offense on occasion.
Also, even though the Colts have won seven of
the last ten meetings SU, Jacksonville has a
6-3-1 ATS record in those games. Clearly the
Jaguars get up for these games with its division
rival. And a win in this game will draw them
even with Indianapolis in the division standings.
Certainly there are advantages for the Colts.
With Peyton Manning's quick decision-making and
release, they have a chance to mitigate theJacksonville
pass rush, which has 15 sacks. And Garrard has
been sacked 15 times, which means if he holds
the ball for two long Dwight Freeney will be
taking dead aim at him. But the Jaguars are once
again going to make the Colts prove they can
stop the run; they have the balance on the ground
with Jones-Drew (307 yards, 5.7 ypc), Taylor
(297 yards, 4.9 ypc) and even Garrard (134 yards,
4.5 ypc). They should be able to move it and
give Garrard some favorable passing situations,
as Indianapolis has given up 71% completions.
With the Jags so stingy at home, this one goes
down to the wire either way, so we're interested
in taking any available points.
JAY'S PLAY: JACKSONVILLE
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Posted on 10/20/2007 12:53:58 PM
Monday Night Football Betting: Colts vs. Jaguars
By Charles Jay
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