Detroit Lions

NFL Previews - Detroit Lions

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2007 DETROIT LIONS PREVIEW

(My Sportsbook) - Apart from perhaps losing, the Detroit Lions are becoming a team known primarily for making bold predictions.

The prognostications used to be solely the domain of talented but apparently delusional wide receiver Roy Williams, who guaranteed a Week 2 victory over the Bears last season (the Lions lost 34-7) and was still talking playoffs after Detroit began the 2006 campaign at 1-6.

With 2007 set to begin, Williams' teammates seem to have caught the bug.

First it was quarterback Jon Kitna telling the local media, "It will be a disappointment for us if we don't win at least 10 games."

Favorite Kitna target Mike Furrey was next to chime in, stating, "Right now, on paper, we look like we should win 10 to 12 games, easily."

And in an effort to reclaim his mouthpiece status, Williams again foretold a playoff berth, also offering among other statements, "We've got a fantasy football team over here."

Maybe if your fantasy involves sadism.

The Lions weren't a player or two away during their miserable 3-13 campaign of 2006. Though they were occasionally fun to watch, Rod Marinelli's squad was generally God-awful.

Had he not somehow pulled out a Week 17 win in Dallas, Kitna would have become just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to make every start for a 14-game loser (Archie Manning, Jeff George, David Carr).

Amazingly, Kitna was actually seen by many as a bright spot on a club that was so inept at running the football that it rarely did so, setting an NFL record for fewest carries in a 16-game season with 304.

There wasn't a heck of a lot to hang the 'ol hat upon defensively either, as Marinelli and company ranked near the bottom of the league in points allowed (24.9 per game), sacks (30) and interceptions (12).

Optimism abounds in the Motor City heading into 2007 thanks in large part to offensive reinforcements like running back Tatum Bell, new offensive line lynch pins George Foster and Edwin Mulitalo, and especially No. 2 overall draft pick Calvin Johnson. This does have the potential to be a consistently productive offense, no doubt.

But defense, which is supposed to be Marinelli's specialty, is a bigger question mark. There is some talent, with tackle Shaun Rogers and linebacker Ernie Sims leading the way, but you won't find a name pass rusher or proven playmaker in the secondary when scanning the two-deep.

Many of the pundits are already laughing at the self-aggrandizing that the Lions have been busy with during the summer months.

Who will eat their words - us or them?

Below we take a capsule look at the 2007 edition of the Detroit Lions, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

RB: The Lions made pains to address their one-dimensional offense during the offseason, working a trade for Broncos 1,000-yard back Bell (1025 rushing yards, 2 TD, 24 receptions with Denver) and bringing in veterans T.J. Duckett (132 rushing yards, 2 TD with Washington) and fullback Alan Ricard to contend for roster spots. Bell will find running room tougher to find than he did in Denver, but should be able to add another dimension to his game via the air. His presence puts more pressure on Kevin Jones (689 rushing yards, 61 receptions, 8 TD) to return from the foot injury that cost him the final month of 2006. It is hard to envision both players getting a vast amount of carries in Martz's attack. If Detroit chooses to keep only three tailbacks, Duckett and 2006 third-round pick Brian Calhoun will battle it out for a roster spot. Ricard has played in just two NFL games since 2004, when he was a starter with the Ravens, but he is more of a pure fullback than h-back types Casey FitzSimmons (7 receptions) and Sean McHugh (3 receptions).

WR/TE: Though there were a number of different scenarios that had them trading the pick or trading the player, the Lions were ultimately "forced" to select and keep wideout Calvin Johnson. Johnson is seen as a once-in-a-generation talent, though with Williams and Furrey (98 receptions, 6 TD) already on the roster, pass-catching was not seen as a major problem area for Detroit. Still, it will be interesting to see how Martz is able to blend the skills of all three players. When the Lions go to four-wide sets, which could be often, former Ram Shaun McDonald (13 receptions, 1 TD with St. Louis) will be called upon. Journeyman Kevin Kasper could be fighting holdover Devale Ellis (4 receptions) and Texans castoff Edell Shepherd (3 receptions with Houston) for a roster spot, while Troy Walters (23 receptions, 2 TD with Arizona) and/or Eddie Drummond (2 receptions) should be kept on to handle return duties. At tight end, Marcus Pollard is gone after two seasons, shining a spotlight on holdovers Dan Campbell (21 receptions, 4 TD), FitzSimmons, and McHugh. Campbell established career-highs in receiving yards (308) and touchdown catches a year ago.

OL: The Detroit line was shaky at best, inept at worst last season, neither consistently protecting Kitna nor blocking for Jones. In reaction, the Lions obtained steady right tackle George Foster as part of the Dre' Bly/Tatum Bell trade with Denver, and also got themselves a decent blocker in ex-Ravens left guard Edwin Mulitalo. The rest of the unit should remain the same as last year, though left tackle Jeff Backus, center Dominic Raiola, and right guard Damien Woody all need to rebound from hit-or-miss 2006 seasons. With the possible exception of Rex Tucker and Barry Stokes (neither of whom are a lock to make the team), the backup forces should be filled out primarily by young players. Tackle Jonathan Scott, center Frank Davis, and guards Manny Ramirez and Stephen Peterman all have two years or fewer of NFL experience.

DL: The Lions' pass rush was mostly non-existent last year, so it came as no surprise that former d-line maven Marinelli cleaned house in this area. Out is former double-digit sack man James Hall (now with the Rams), and in are former Buccaneer Dewayne White (43 tackles, 5 sacks with Tampa Bay) and University of Hawaii product Ikaika Alama-Francis. Neither those two players nor holdover Kalimba Edwards (37 tackles, 3 sacks) is particularly regarded for their run- stopping prowess, which will place more pressure on the linebacking crew. The club will be sturdier on the interior, where Shaun Rogers (20 tackles, 3 sacks) and Cory Redding (47 tackles, 8 sacks) are both first-rate talents and Shaun Cody (11 tackles) is a capable backup. Workhorse end Jared DeVries (23 tackles) is virtually assured of a backup job after starting nine games last year, but holdover tackles Cleveland Pinkney (8 tackles) and Langston Moore could be sweating out their spots on the team.

LB: One of the bright spots in an otherwise poor 2006 season for the Lions was the play of rookie Ernie Sims (124 tackles), who emerged as a force on the weak side for Marinelli's crew. Look for another year of 100-plus tackles for the Florida State product. The strong side spot will go to either Boss Bailey (67 tackles, 1 sack), who played in all 16 games for the first time since his rookie season last year, or the underrated Alex Lewis (47 tackles). The Lions have a problem in the middle, where Teddy Lehman (5 tackles) has had major trouble staying healthy and 2006 starter Paris Lenon (71 tackles, 1 INT) has not been much of a playmaker. Holdovers Donte' Curry (18 tackles) and Anthony Cannon (8 tackles) stand to gain if the team decides to part ways with Lehman.

DB: The Detroit secondary is in need of a new identity after its two most recognizable players, Bly and safety Terrence Holt, changed addresses in the offseason. The cornerback picture focuses on ex-Ram Travis Fisher (29 tackles with St. Louis), who will match up with opponents' No. 1 receiver if healthy, third-year pro Stanley Wilson (38 tackles), and veteran Fernando Bryant (46 tackles). There is also a three-way battle at safety, where rookie Gerald Alexander is trying to insert himself into a mix that already includes second- year man Daniel Bullocks (74 tackles, 1 sack) at free safety and hard-hitting Kenoy Kennedy (66 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) on the strong side. Vying for backup roles will be fourth-round draft choice A.J. Davis and former third-round pick Keith Smith (22 tackles), who has been on the Detroit roster for the last three seasons but has never cracked the regular rotation.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Set to begin his 16th season in a Detroit uniform is kicker Jason Hanson (29-33 FG), who is now 37 but still accurate. Punter Nick Harris (45.0 avg.) did a nice job in his fourth campaign with the Lions last year, and will keep his position. Long snapper Don Muhlbach will stick around as well. Either Eddie Drummond (10.6 punt return avg., 21.8 kickoff return avg.) or Troy Walters (10.4 punt return avg. with Arizona) figures to make the squad as a return specialist, but it is doubtful that both will win jobs.

PROGNOSIS: How can you keep a straight face when predicting success for a team that is 24-72 since 2001? It's tough, but in the cyclical world of the NFL, Detroit is bound to eventually become a quality outfit. The question is whether the Lions' resurgence is imminent, and we say not exactly. The offense will be exciting and score points, though the line is paper-thin beyond the starting unit. And the defense might make some strides over last year's showing, but is still a bottom-tier group with precious little depth. In the weak NFC North, the Lions probably have enough muscle to go 7-9. Which for an organization that is burdened with six consecutive seasons of double-digit losses, can be chalked up as progress.

WagerOnFootball.com - Detroit Lions Predictions

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