Buffalo Bills

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Buffalo Bills 2007 Preview

(My Sportsbook) - Call it the ex-Bills club.

Takeo Spikes. Willis McGahee. London Fletcher-Baker. Nate Clements. All former high-profile members of the Buffalo roster, all shipped off to new addresses during a statement-making offseason.

The statement from the Bills brain trust of GM Marv Levy and head coach Dick Jauron was, "We've got to get younger." A secondary statement, if you want to read anything into the giant free agent deals given to Fletcher-Baker and especially Clements was, "This organization is not going to overpay." As for McGahee, well, if you're going to tell people you want your team to move to Toronto, you'd better come up with at least 1,000 yards to appease the fans you just insulted.

A few years from now, some or all of the above players will get old, injured, ineffective, or all three, perhaps proving that Buffalo parted ways with them at the right time.

As 2007 begins, though, it looks a lot like the ex-Bills club took with them a giant piece of the team's identity.

Now Buffalo belongs to the young, hungry and vibrant, the J.P. Losmans, Marshawn Lynches, Lee Evanses and Aaron Schobels of the world.

There isn't a younger team in the AFC East, to be certain, and there may not be a greener squad in the entire league.

If you're a believer in the old adage that youth is wasted on the young, then you probably don't think much of a Bills team that scratched and clawed its way to 7-9 during a 2006 season when it had a lot more veteran reinforcements than it does currently.

But you can bet on seeing some of that fresh talent emerge in 2007, as a group of players takes a tentative step toward the division supremacy that the likes of Levy and Jauron must envision somewhere down the road.

Buffalo wants to cash in on that youthful exuberance while it can, before several key members of this year's team seek to start their own chapter of the ex-Bills club.

Below we take a capsule look at the 2007 edition of the Buffalo Bills, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:

2006 RECORD: 7-9 (3rd, AFC East)

LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 1999, lost to Tennessee, 22-16, in AFC Wild Card Game

COACH (RECORD): Dick Jauron (7-9 in one season with Bills, 43-58 overall)

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Steve Fairchild

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Perry Fewell

OFFENSIVE STAR: J.P. Losman, QB (3051 passing yards, 19 TD, 14 INT)

DEFENSIVE STAR: Aaron Schobel, DE (53 tackles, 14 sacks)

OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 27th rushing, 28th passing, 23rd scoring

DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 28th rushing, 7th passing, 10th scoring

FIVE KEY GAMES: Denver (9/9), N.Y. Jets (9/30), at Miami (11/11), New England (11/18), at Cleveland (12/16)

KEY ADDITIONS: QB Trent Edwards (3rd Round, Stanford), RB Marshawn Lynch (1st Round, Cal), RB/KR Josh Scobey (from Seahawks), G Derrick Dockery (from Redskins), G Jason Whittle (from Vikings), T Langston Walker (from Raiders), LB Paul Posluzsny (2nd Round, Penn State), CB Jason Webster (from Falcons)

KEY DEPARTURES: QB Kelly Holcomb (to Eagles), RB Willis McGahee (to Ravens), FB Daimon Shelton (released), WR Andre' Davis (to Texans), G Chris Villarial (released), G Tutan Reyes (released), T Mike Gandy (to Cardinals), MLB London Fletcher-Baker (to Redskins), LB Takeo Spikes (to Eagles), CB Nate Clements (to 49ers), S Matt Bowen (released)

QB: He may not have had a "breakout" season in the statistical sense, but for the first time in his three years in the league, Losman started all 16 games and looked, for the most part, like an NFL quarterback. The Bills welcomed Losman's leadership, but they would like to see him make more big plays after tossing just 19 touchdowns last year, and are also hoping that he gains the pocket presence to cut down on his 2006 sack total of 47. Craig Nall didn't take a snap last season, but with Kelly Holcomb having been dealt to the Eagles in the Takeo Spikes trade, he is nominally the team's No. 2 quarterback. Why nominally? Because in April, the team spent a third-round draft choice on Stanford QB Trent Edwards, who many feel could eventually develop into an NFL starter.

RB: McGahee's fall from grace in Buffalo was swift and precipitous, as both the running back's controversial off-field comments and underwhelming play were factors in his being dealt to Baltimore. Enter Marshawn Lynch, who some felt was a reach at No. 12 but who most agree should be a capable running back in the league for many years. At first, expect Lynch to share carries with Dick Jauron-favorite Anthony Thomas (378 rushing yards, 2 TD, 22 receptions), a one-cut type of runner who rehabilitated his career in Buffalo last season. The rest of the running back depth chart was difficult to predict as training camp kicked off. Holdover Shaud Williams and fourth-round draft choice Dwayne Wright would seem to be vying for the third job, but what about Josh Scobey, who was brought in to compete for return specialist duties? And with no true fullback on the roster, would the team keep both Brad Cieslak (6 receptions) and Ryan Neufeld, a couple of tight ends who can line up in the backfield when necessary? Without question, Jauron will have some difficult choices to make in this department.

WR/TE: He doesn't get the same respect afforded many of his contemporaries, but Lee Evans (82 receptions, 8 TD) proved last season that he is an elite- level NFL receiver. Despite the absence of another consistent pass-catcher on the roster, the fleet Evans found ways to get open, particularly in the season's second half. Evans had at least one catch of 30+ yards in six of his final nine games, and scored seven of his eight touchdowns on the year over that stretch. Veteran Peerless Price (49 receptions, 3 TD) started 15 games last year, but proved that he was a shell of the player that left Buffalo for supposed greener pastures after the 2002 season. The Bills need one of their younger receivers - Roscoe Parrish (23 receptions, 2 TD), Sam Aiken or Josh Reed (34 receptions, 2 TD) - to develop into a reliable complement to Evans. Buffalo lacks a true pass-catching tight end, as starter Robert Royal (23 receptions, 3 TD) is more of a blocker, though there is hope that 2005 third- round pick Kevin Everett might eventually turn into that player. Either Cieslak or Neufeld will make the team as a third tight end, but will both stick?

OL: The Bills' biggest offseason additions were along the offensive line, though no one is suggesting that the likes of ex-Redskins left guard Derrick Dockery, former Raiders right tackle Langston Walker, and ex-Vikings reserve guard Jason Whittle will transform the unit from shaky to solid overnight. The Buffalo line still lacks a dominant player, though the team thinks that blossoming left tackle Jason Peters can eventually become that guy. The left side should be a strength this year, though expectations should be kept low in regards to center Melvin Fowler, right guard Duke Preston, and Walker, who are all average on their best day. Backups should include Whittle, part-time 2006 starter and tackle Terrance Pennington, second-year-pro and tackle Brad Butler, and center/guard reserve Aaron Merz.

DL: With Spikes, Fletcher-Baker, and Clements gone, the Bills' defensive role model becomes end Aaron Schobel, who should be more than up to the leadership task. With very little fanfare, Schobel has posted three double-digit sacks seasons in the past four years, and was last year named to the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career. The end rotation behind Schobel is solid, as Chris Kelsay (61 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Ryan Denney (54 tackles, 6 sacks) have both played a significant role and Anthony Hargrove (19 tackles, 1 sack) did a good job after coming over from St. Louis in a trade last year. A recent off-the-field altercation between Hargrove and a police officer, which resulted in an arrest, is not expected to affect that player's roster status. On the interior, the team thought they would have ex-Eagle Darwin Walker to assist an average group of run-stoppers, but Walker effectively refused a trade to Buffalo and is now with the Bears. That means the tackle rotation should remain basically the same, with Larry Tripplett (33 tackles, 2.5 sacks), Kyle Williams (53 tackles), Tim Anderson (32 tackles), and 2006 first- round pick John McCargo (6 tackles) all seeing regular time. Another tackle, third-year-man Jason Jefferson, is on the roster bubble.

LB: With Fletcher-Baker (80 starts since 2002) and Spikes (46 starts since 2003) having relocated, the look of the Bills linebacking corps could take some getting used to. The Buffalo organization's fondness of strong side backer Angelo Crowell (82 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) and weak side man Keith Ellison (65 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) helped hasten the departure of both veterans, though it remains to be seen whether the younger players will be as effective without Fletcher-Baker and/or Spikes playing alongside them. The player charged with the gargantuan task of taking over in the middle will be Penn State product Paul Posluzsny, who is athletic but will undoubtedly suffer from some growing pains. The reserve corps is familiar, as Mario Haggan (17 tackles), John DiGiorgio (8 tackles), and Coy Wire (23 tackles) were all regular contributors last season and will see most of their time on special teams. Ex-Packers starter Roy Manning could be battling holdover Josh Stamer (5 tackles) for one of the last spots on the roster.

DB: The departure of the talented Clements spells a shift in responsibilities in the secondary. Taking over as the No. 1 corner is Terrence McGee (76 tackles), who has shown great speed and good playmaking ability in four NFL seasons but will be under much more pressure when facing opponents' top wideout. The club would like to see 2006 third-round pick Ashton Youboty develop quickly enough to take the other starting role, but it is more likely that a veteran such as former Falcon Jason Webster (49 tackles, 2 INT with Atlanta), '06 nickel back Kiwaukee Thomas (50 tackles), or returning reserve Jabari Greer (22 tackles) will line up there as the season begins. The oft- injured Webster, who hasn't played a full season since 2002, had the early beat on a starting job. The safety spots appear secure, with a pair of second- year pros in Donte Whitner (104 tackles, 1 INT) on the strong side and Ko Simpson (76 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) the free making up one of the defense's strengths. Wire can also play safety, and special teams ace Jim Leonhard (13 tackles) should beat out sixth-round choice John Wendling for a backup job in that area.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Jauron has much to worry about as the season nears, but the kicking game should not give him many sleepless nights. Kicker Rian Lindell (23-25 FG) is as accurate as they come, and provided he has mentally recovered from a devastating hit by Sean Taylor in last year's Pro Bowl, punter Brian Moorman (43.6 avg.) should once again take his place as one of the game's best. Long snapper Mike Schneck doesn't appear to have anything to be concerned about in terms of his job either. With McGee (26.1 avg.) taking over more significant responsibilities on defense, his services might no longer be used on kickoff returns. The former Seahawk and Cardinal Josh Scobey (18.5 avg. with Seattle) is one option there, and the occasionally electrifying Roscoe Parrish (11.4 avg., 1 TD) should be the man again on punt returns.

PROGNOSIS: Even if you're one of those that admires the Bills' personnel approach, you'd have to admit that it is probably not going to get the team anywhere in the very near future. There is some talent on both sides of the football, but enough to contend with the likes of the Patriots and Jets? Not yet. Losman, Lynch, and Evans should do some good things for the Buffalo offense, but they do not make up the core of a postseason-ready offense. The defense has some intriguing figures too, notably Schobel, Posluszny, and the two second-year safeties, but frankly, teams like New England are going to take advantage of their inexperience and run circles around the entire unit. The Bills will have their moments in 2007, but not enough of them to avoid a third- or fourth-place finish in the AFC East.

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