Week 9 NFL Picks & Betting Trends

Nov. 1, 2007

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Each week, we break down four trends to help bettors make more informed NFL betting picks The following are for Week 9's big game between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts:

Not that far back, but close. NFL betting historians will recall Week 1 of the 1999 season, when the Indianapolis Colts - led by second-year QB Peyton Manning - hosted the Buffalo Bills at the RCA Dome.

The Colts were three-point underdogs that day, but easily covered in a 31-14 romp. That set off an amazing streak of the Colts being listed as home favorites for eight straight seasons - and it all comes to an end this Sunday as they're shading 6.5 points to the Patriots.

When the Bodog Sportsbook opened the line at 11 a.m. Tuesday morning, the Patriots were listed as 4.5-point favorites. Just one hour and 26 minutes later, it had been bumped to five. Another hour and 22 minutes passed before it was moved to 5.5, and by the time 3:22 p.m. had rolled around, the Patriots had emerged as a six-point favorite. It's now holding steady at 6.5.

It was a strange series of line shifts in a game full of anomalies - the Colts haven't lost a game at the RCA Dome since Week 15 of the 2005 season. They're also the defending Super Bowl champions. They're also 7-0. In almost any other conceivable circumstance, the Colts are once again a home favorite this week.

Of course, what the Pats have done this season wasn't ever a conceivable circumstance.

It's common knowledge by now that the Patriots are on pace to break the 1998 Minnesota Vikings' record of 556 points scored in a regular season. New England is averaging 41.4 points per game, and that puts it on pace to tally 662.

Meanwhile, the Colts are averaging 31.0 per game, which seems almost paltry compared to what Tom Brady and company are doing. However, Indianapolis is actually third in the NFL in scoring. (Poor San Francisco, dead last at 12.6.)

Not surprisingly then, oddsmakers have set a sky-high total of 57 for this Sunday's showdown. The next highest total on the board is 47, for Seattle at Cleveland.

Of course, we all remember the last time these clubs met. Last year in the playoffs, the Colts won 38-34, the two sides racking up 72 total points in the game that put Indianapolis into the Super Bowl.

If you think 72 might be the magic number once again, you can get a potential payout of 10/1 in the Bodog Sportsbook. They'll even throw in 71, 73, 74, 75, 76 and 77 for free.

For the record, New England has hit the over in seven of their eight games while the Colts have gone over in just three of seven.

Free NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread
Bodog Nation Staff Selections

One prop bet that's getting a lot of action is the one asking which player will score the first touchdown of the game. The favorite is New England's Randy Moss at 5/1 while the longshot is "No TD scored" at 100/1.

Moss leads the Pats with 11 touchdowns, five more than Wes Welker (7/1) and six more than Benjamin Watson (7/1 as part of the field). Watson had "limited participation" in New England's practice on Wednesday and is listed as questionable for Sunday after missing two games with an ankle injury.

If you're looking for value, why not consider the quarterbacks at 20/1? Both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning each have two touchdowns on the season. Both of Brady's came last week against Washington and, yes, he made the game's first trip to the end zone on a three-yard scamper.

Another option to think about is Indianapolis running back Kenton Keith at 15/1. The first-year player who spent time in the CFL before catching on with the Colts has three scores on the year and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Keith started against the Buccaneers a few weeks ago when Joseph Addai was injured and racked up 121 yards and two touchdowns. Granted, he won't get as many touches now that Addai is healthy, but he'll still get the ball around 20-30 percent of the time.

Given that most assume it's the real Super Bowl XLII, to consider it anything less would be blasphemy.

But has the hype machine run wild? Well, consider the last few regular season contests that have received similar attention:

• 2006: Indy (7-0) beats New England (6-1) 27-20. Both go on to meet in the AFC Championship. Indy wins 38-34.
  
  
• 2004: Pittsburgh (5-1) beats New England (6-0) 34-20. Both go on to meet in the AFC Championship. New England wins 41-27.
  
  
• 1995: Dallas (4-1) beats Green Bay (3-1) 34-24. Both go on to meet in the NFC Championship. Dallas wins 38-27.
  
  
• 1990: San Fran (10-1) beats the New York Giants (10-1) 7-3. Both go on to meet in the NFC Championship. New York wins 15-13.

Currently, the Patriots are at 2/5 to win the 2008 AFC Championship, while the Colts are at 3/2.

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