Week 8 NFL Picks & Betting Trends

Oct 24 , 2007

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Each week, we break down four trends to help bettors make more informed NFL betting picks The following are for Week 8:

That's the story this weekend as the Fins (0-7) take on the New York Giants (5-2) at Wembley Stadium in London, England.

Talk about two teams headed in different directions. The Dolphins are winless and possibly getting worse as the season progresses. On Sunday, they were embarrassed at home, losing 49-28 to the New England Patriots. Adding to the misery is news that running back Ronnie Brown is lost for the season.

"You don't replace a Ronnie Brown," Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron said Monday. "He was having a Pro Bowl season."

Meanwhile, the Giants have won five straight after sputtering in their first two games. On Sunday against San Francisco, the defense made 49ers quarterback Trent Dilfer the latest victim of the deadliest pass rush in the nation. New York racked up six more sacks in its 33-15 victory, giving them a league-leading 27 on the year. The key play of the game? Osi Umenyiora sacked Dilfer in the third quarter, forced a fumble, scooped it up and ran 75 yards for a touchdown.

Oddsmakers opened the Giants by 9.5 over the Dolphins, a line that could easily go higher as the week progresses. (Yup, it's up to 10.) The only thing that might worry Giants' backers is the high-profile nature of the game, which is the first regular-season one in NFL history to be held overseas. Wembley's 88,000 seats sold out almost instantly and the hype around the event will be off the charts. No team likes to get embarrassed when everyone's watching.

"Well, we can't win in America, maybe we can win overseas," defensive end Jason Taylor said.

Probably not, but at the very least, expect an above-average effort.

Vince Young is likely to return at quarterback on Sunday for the seven-point favorite Tennessee Titans as they host the Oakland Raiders. That's good news for the team after Kerry Collins struggled to find the end zone against the Texans. That said, the question in Nashville has to be, can the Titans' defense recover from being picked apart by Sage "Never Been Confused for Tom Brady" Rosenfels?

Last Sunday in Houston, Rosenfels led four fourth-quarter scoring drives as the Texans fought back to take the lead after trailing 32-7 after 45 minutes. The first drive went 70 yards, the second 98, the third 75, the fourth 66. And if you believe what they say, it's not like the Titans took their foot off the gas, either.

"Fourth quarter, everything we had, we threw at them," said Tennessee defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. "Blitz, man, zone, rushing three – we even tried that and we couldn't stop the bleeding. It wasn't like we were sitting there playing one thing or we got away from what we did. We were rolling through our stuff."

Everything they had they threw at Sage Rosenfels? And that's what happened?

Forget that the Raiders are 2-4; if Rosenfels can do what he did against Tennessee, surely Daunte Culpepper can watch some film and keep his team within a touchdown. So far in 2007, the Titans have won just once by more than seven points while the Raiders have lost only twice by the same margin.

Free NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread
Bodog Nation Staff Selections

When Byron Leftwich lined up behind center on Sunday, he set an unofficial benchmark, becoming the 46th different quarterback to start a game in the NFL this season. An amazing number when you consider there were 50 starting QBs all of last season.

Leftwich is the third QB to start this season after joining his team in training camp - Minnesota's Kelly Holcomb and Carolina's Vinny Testaverde are the others - which begs the question: how can we bet on these guys?

The fear of an unknown QB is prevalent in the betting community. To alleviate these fears, you need to watch their games closely.

Here are some success tips and warning signs for wagering on reserve QBs:

Good: Teams who split carries between two RBs. They can increase their individual workloads, taking a lot of pressure off the quarterback. This is basically what happened in Carolina when Jake Delhomme went down - DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster both became more prominently involved in the offensive.

Bad: Teams with no quality tight end. The lack of a good safety valve has killed both starting and reserve signal callers in Miami, Minnesota and Buffalo. To wit: Since Cleo Lemon took over starting duties for the Dolphins, starting TE David Martin hasn't had more than 22 receiving yards in a game. Miami is 0-3 during that stretch.

Good: Veteran backups. Guys like Testaverde (21 years), Kerry Collins (13) Brian Griese (10) and Kurt Warner (10) have six combined wins already this season.

Bad: Inexperienced backups. Teams who have paid for not investing in a seasoned reserve include Jacksonville (now going with Quinn Gray, he of the 30 career completions), Atlanta (Joey Harrington is the most experienced QB on the roster) and Miami (Lemon and John Beck had one career start between them heading into 2007).

Remember when it was damn near impossible to do anything against the Baltimore defense? The unit was responsible for awe-inspiring performances as recently as last season, when they sacked Ben Roethlisberger nine times during a Week 12 shutout against the Steelers.

My, how times have changed.

The biggest change has come in the passing game, where teams can now seemingly expose the secondary for big play after big play. The Ravens have given up 22 passing plays of 20 yards or more, the fourth-highest total in the league. Even more alarming is that they've given up six plays of 40+ yards - tied for the most in the NFL with the New Orleans Saints.

Once the most feared pass-rushing unit in the league, the Ravens have been decidedly less sack-happy in 2007. With just 15 QB drops through seven games, Baltimore finds itself ranked 14th in the NFL - a far cry from their previous rankings of second in 2006 and eighth in 2005.

The defense is getting older (captain Ray Lewis is 32 and in his 12th season) and the departure of Adalius Thomas weakened the front seven. Now might be a good time to start looking at some over plays involving Baltimore - they haven't had a total over 40 in three weeks and now have a stretch of games against explosive offenses in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, San Diego, New England and Indianapolis.

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