Week 7 NFL Picks & Betting Trends

Oct 17 , 2007

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Each week, we break down four trends to help bettors make more informed NFL betting picks The following are for Week 7:

In Minnesota's 34-31 victory over Chicago on Sunday, the Vikings' rookie running back finished with 224 rushing yards on 20 carries and scored on runs of 67, 73 and 35 yards. In the process, he broke a club record for rushing yards in a game, bettering Chuck Foreman's mark of 200 against Philadelphia in 1976. Peterson also ripped the Bears for the most yards on the ground in their history.

Did we mention Peterson is a rookie? He's also the lone bright spot on a Vikings offense that's averaged a paltry 169.2 passing yards per game. That part of the game didn't get any better Sunday, either. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson completed just nine of his 23 attempts for 136 yards against the Bears.

Of course, as good as the Vikings' rushing offense was Sunday, their rushing defense is still the team's most impressive attribute. Last season, opponents gained just 61.6 yards per game on the ground and 2.8 yards per carry, the best in the NFL by a wide margin. This year, it's 66.2 and 2.7.

Take the improving offense, thanks to Peterson, and an already good defense (Minnesota is surrendering just 18.0 points per game, eighth in the league) and you have to like the team's chances to stay within 10 points against Dallas. The Vikings (2-3) have yet to lose by double digits and are going up against a Cowboys team that hasn't covered a spread in back-to-back weeks.

One of the most amazing statistics of the year has to be this: The Detroit Lions have surrendered 28 sacks in just five games. Last year, Oakland led the league in that category, giving up 72 over 16 games. Detroit is on pace for 90. The NFL record is 76, by Houston in 2004.

The Lions (3-2) are coming off a bye week, a much-needed break after being blown out 34-3 at Washington. This Sunday, they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2). Oddsmakers like the home team by a point and a half.

The line clearly reflects the lack of trust in a team that started out 3-1 but still has a reputation for losing big. It's tough to get a handle on Detroit. The Lions won their first two games. Then, in Week 3, they lost 56-21 at Philadelphia. The next week, they beat the Bears, 37-27. And then came the Redskins debacle, a game in which the Lions' previously potent passing attack fell completely apart. Jon Kitna threw for just 106 yards, no TDs and two interceptions.

Perhaps the Lions just don't play well on the road – both of their big losses came away from Ford Field – but it has to be more complex than that. After all, "Fire Matt Millen" chants aren't exactly uplifting.

As for the Bucs, they're playing some solid football, and quarterback Jeff Garcia is a big reason why. Almost as amazing as the number of sacks allowed by the Lions is the fact Garcia has yet to throw an interception in 2007. Only Jacksonville's David Garrard can boast that kind of perfection among regular starters.

Detroit versus Tampa Bay promises to be a quarterbacking battle of gunslinging versus managing. Go with whichever style you prefer, but be warned, you never know what you're getting when the Lions are involved.

Free NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread
Bodog Nation Staff Selections

When people aren't talking about the Patriots, they're talking about the Colts. And when they're not talking about either of those two, they'll discuss the Steelers.

There is one team, however, that should infiltrate the debate of who belongs in the AFC power triumvirate. It's the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Just a field goal away from being undefeated, Jack Del Rio's charges have emerged as a serious threat to the aforementioned trio under the guidance of David Garrard. With Garrard at the helm, Jacksonville not only has a four-game winning streak, but has scored 30 points or more in three of those games. But the most impressive Garrard stat might be his eight touchdown passes and no interceptions in 170 attempts – one of only two starting QBs in the league (Jeff Garcia is the other) who hasn't tossed a pick yet. Of course, Garcia's Tampa Bay team is averaging 18 points per game while Jacksonville is putting up 20.

While Jacksonville has always been a tantalizing team – the Jags would often beat a division leader one week, only to follow it up with a loss to an inferior squad – this year they seem to have the consistency and balance they've lacked in previous years. Currently riding just their second four-game winning streak since 2000, the Jags now have an all-important divisional battle on Monday Night Football against the Colts – the four-time defending AFC South champs.

"We know if we win next week, we'll be in first place," Jacksonville linebacker Mike Peterson said. "But we want to approach it the same way - not pressing, not tensed up."

One of the big reasons to play Jacksonville as a three-point home underdog is its dynamic running game. With hybrid RB-FB Greg Jones now fully recovered from a torn ACL, the Jags have another talented playmaker to line up with Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. The committee approach has served the team well – the Jags sit fourth in the league with 154.8 rushing yards per contest. But they aren't a three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust running team: They're tied for the league lead in runs of 40 yards or more, with three.

This, combined with Garrard's effective game management, equals one of the most compelling stats for Jacksonville – they're sixth in the NFL for time of possession per game, averaging a shade over 32 minutes per. It's one of the most effective way to beat the Colts: Keeping the ball in your hands means you keep it out of Peyton Manning's.

Funny what four straight wins will do for a team.

The Giants, you'll recall, were written off for dead after opening the season 0-2 and giving up 80 combined points while doing so. Eli Manning wasn't a leader, Tom Coughlin had lost the room and the defense was playing at the junior varsity level.

But after Monday's 31-10 whitewash of the Falcons, all seemed well in the Big Apple. The Giants were healthy and moved within a game of Dallas for the NFC East lead. So why the hesitation from yours truly?

Because this is the same Giants team that was 6-2 at one point last season, only to lose six of their last seven and back their way into an uninspired playoff loss to Philly. Granted, things do look good on the upcoming schedule - New York plays the Trent Dilfer-led 49ers before going to London to take on the winless Dolphins - but the slate after that (coincidentally, the Giants could very well be 6-2 again at this point) gets rough.

Road dates in Detroit, Chicago and Philly. Tough home games against Washington and New England. Could another second-half swoon be in the cards?

If the past few seasons are any indication, that would be the trend. Under the Coughlin regime, the Giants' record after Week 12 has been abysmal, just 7-13 including two playoff losses to Carolina (2005) and Philadelphia (2006).

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