Week 17 NFL Picks & Betting Trends

Dec 29th, 2007

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Each week, we break down four trends to help bettors make more informed NFL betting picks. The following are for Week 17:

After Cleveland failed to close the deal last weekend against Cincinnati, the RCA Dome became a Pandora's Box of AFC playoff implications.

The one remaining postseason spot will either go to the Browns or Tennessee Titans. Win or lose, Cleveland can do nothing to control its fate this Sunday. And the Titans are in a similar boat.

While Tennessee can decide its own fate, its playoff life will be somewhat dictated by how the Colts line up on Sunday night. Indianapolis has little to play for having already locked up the AFC South and a first-round playoff bye. The likes of Jim Sorgi, Kenton Keith, Clifton Dawson and Craphonso Thorpe could be starting as early as the second quarter.

This is not to say, however, that the Colts are going to simply hand Tennessee its first playoff berth since 2003. Tennessee hasn't won at Indianapolis since 2002, losing four in a row by a combined 133-47. The only close game was last season, when the Titans rushed for 214 yards and held Peyton Manning to a season-low 166 yards passing, but blew a fourth-quarter lead and lost 14-13.

While Browns' fans are understandably nervous about the situation, there is reason to think that even the Colts backups will give Tennessee a game. In a 38-15 rout of Houston last weekend, Joseph Addai only got six carries and Manning didn't play at all in the fourth quarter. The Colts have also won four of their last five Week 17 games.

Indy will be looking to give their fans a strong close to the regular season (at home, no less) and have never really let up against a divisional rival. Take 'em plus the 6.5 points.

If there was ever a time you wanted to play the Cowboys, this weekend would be it.

Terrell Owens and Marion Barber are not going to see much action, if any.

They've hardly looked like a dominant team of late. They barely outlasted Carolina 20-13 last week, when Owens was hurt in the first half.

One week earlier, they gained a season-low 240 yards in a 10-6 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, and the week before that it took a 13-point fourth-quarter comeback to beat the struggling Detroit Lions 28-27.

Quarterback Tony Romo has been battling a thumb injury suffered against Philly.

It adds up to a dream scenario for the Redkins at FedEx Field. Spurred on by inspired play from Todd Collins - he's completed 60.8 percent of his passes and thrown for four touchdowns without an interception in three straight wins - Washington has all kinds of momentum heading into this Week 17 showdown against an opponent who simply wants to get healthy for the postseason.

The raucous Redskins faithful will have much to cheer for. First, it's a classic rivalry game. Second, this is a chance to win one for Sean Taylor. Third, it's a chance to lock up a playoff berth at home, a seemingly improbable scenario just five weeks ago.

Washington might not cover the -9.5 points but they're a good bet on the moneyline.

Free NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread
Bodog Nation Staff Selections

Playing at Soldier Field in December is never an enticing proposition. Even if your opponent has nothing to play for.

Brett Favre and the Packers found this out last Sunday as an angry Bears team snapped a three-game losing streak and pounded Green Bay 35-7 in Chicago. Playing in the blistering cold with gusting winds, the Bears ground out 139 rushing yards, intercepted two passes (one that Brian Urlacher returned for an 85-yard TD) and blocked two punts in what might've been their best game of the year.

Now, the Bears are getting points as the banged-up Saints come to town.

New Orleans' leading receiver Marques Colston will miss the game after suffering a chest contusion last week against Philly. The injury left him spitting up blood. The team will also try to run Reggie Bush despite a partially torn PCL. On defense, the Saints will be without Mike McKenzie (torn ACL), hurting an already struggling defense. New Orleans' opponents are averaging 364.9 yards - fifth-highest in the NFL - and 23.7 points per game - 12th highest.

This game will mark the first time the Saints have visited Chicago during the regular season since 2002. Including last year's playoff victory, the Bears have won two straight over the Saints after losing the previous three in a row. Don't expect much to change as Chicago aims to close out the season by putting another whipping on another NFC foe.

In the ultra-secret NFL world, only the savviest of insiders can get a half-decent idea of what coaches plan to do in the final weekend. Traditionally, Week 17 is a time to rest veterans, audition youngsters and watch the few teams that have something to play for duke it out. Of course, 2007 has thrown that formula out the window.

The Patriots have locked up every conceivable home-field advantage yet have that whole "16-0" thing to play for. The Dolphins are all auditioning for new boss Bill Parcells as they host the Bengals. Najeh Davenport - filling in for the injured Willie Parkers - needs reps as the Steelers travel to Baltimore. Arizona badly wants to finish at .500 and will need a win against the Rams to do so.

Therefore, oddsmakers can really only guess at who or what might show up come game time. It's why the Texans are 6.5-point favorites against the 11-4 Jaguars. It's why the playoff-bound Bucs are three-point homedogs to the woeful Panthers. And so on. And so forth.

It's times like these that over/under totals begin to look tempting. The 37 in the Buffalo-Philly game seems like a good play when you consider four of Buffalo's last six and three of Philly's last five have gone over. Scour the sportsbook and see what stands out. Point spreads in Week 17 should be avoided, unless you've got a NFL insider on speed dial.

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