Week 15 NFL Picks & Betting Trends

Dec 14th, 2007

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Each week, we break down four trends to help bettors make more informed NFL betting picks. The following are for Week 15:

It's not exactly easy to find fault in what many consider the greatest offense the NFL has ever seen. But if you're an optimistic New York Jets fan, or just a really negative Bostonian, you might point to the New England Patriots' running game as cause for further scrutiny.

On Sunday against Pittsburgh, the Pats gained just 22 yards on the ground. That made it three straight games with less than 100 yards rushing for the highest-scoring attack in the NFL. Individually, Laurence Maroney has pulled off just a single 100-yard rushing game in 2007 (Week 3 – 103 yards versus Buffalo) and has been held to an average of 39.6 yards in his last seven games.

The lack of rushing success for Bill Belichick's crew is good news for the Jets, who are being spotted a record 24 points this Sunday in Foxborough. New York has struggled all season against the run. Last Sunday, Cleveland's Jamal Lewis rumbled for 118 yards and a score in the Browns' 24-18 victory.

What the Jets did relatively well, however, was contain quarterback Derek Anderson and his two star receivers, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. The Browns put up just 185 yards through the air, well below their average of 243.

In fact, New York is 11th in the NFL when it comes to passing defense. So while there's little hope of a win, if it can do a good job against Tom Brady, Randy Moss and the rest of the New England pass-catchers, there's certainly hope to cover the biggest point spread in history.

''I know this: If we don't win this week, we don't have a chance.''

Those were the words of Arizona Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt earlier this week when asked about his team's chances of grabbing an NFC wild-card spot. You could probably compel a similar answer from New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton.

Both the Cards and Saints, who face each other Sunday, are 6-7 and tied with Detroit and Washington, a game back of the Minnesota Vikings (7-6), for the final NFC playoff spot. As it stands, it's doubtful 8-8 will get it done so every game is a must-win for the 6-7 sides.

Whether it's useful or not, Arizona must still be kicking itself after blowing it three weeks ago against San Francisco. For those who missed it (or have blocked it out), Neil Rackers missed an easy 32-yard field goal in overtime and the Cards went on to lose on a Kurt Warner fumble in his own end zone.

As for the Saints, an 0-4 start is easily the biggest thing to blame for their situation. However, a Nov. 11 loss at home to the lowly St. Louis Rams also looms large.

Oddsmakers like the Saints by 3.5 points and you could argue that's being generous to injury-riddled Arizona. A week after the Cards got shellacked in Seattle without receiver Anquan Boldin (questionable for Sunday) came news that tight end Leonard Pope is out for the season with a dislocated right ankle.

Free NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread
Bodog Nation Staff Selections

There was a time when going to Arrowhead was one of the toughest trips in the NFL.

The Kansas City faithful were regarded as some of the most aggressive fans and the Chiefs always seemed to play above their heads in front of the overzealous home crowd.

That was then. This is now. And man, is this ever ugly.

The Chiefs are 2-5 at home this season and have lost three straight at Arrowhead. All told, they've lost six straight regular season contests and things reached a low last weekend, as they were embarrassed 41-7 by Denver.

Granted, the KC free fall has much to do with its MASH unit. The likes of Tony Gonzalez, Damion McIntosh, Larry Johnson, Kolby Smith and Donnie Edwards are either dinged up or already ruled out for this Sunday. But it still only adds up to the visiting Tennessee Titans being four-point road dogs – perhaps oddsmakers are being influenced by the old Arrowhead mystique.

On paper, this game seems like a no-brainer. Tennessee is fighting for its playoff life while the Chiefs are playing out the string. Ever heard of Jackie Battle? He's the former University of Houston standout who will likely be competing with Gilbert Harris (heard of him either?) for starting duties in the Chiefs backfield. Yes, after a year that saw them go through Johnson, Smith and Priest Holmes, it now comes down to this for the Chiefs.

At this point, it doesn't even seem to matter whether or not Tennessee run-stuffing dynamo Albert Haynesworth can recover from his hamstring injury. The Chiefs have become so inept at running the football – Smith led the team in rushing against Denver with 12 yards – that they'll likely be forced to throw most of the day. That's not an enticing option with Brodie Croyle tossing the rock and no Tony Gonzalez to catch it.

Tennessee should win this game by at least a touchdown, if not more. Expect them to crank up the pass rush and pressure Croyle into making quick decisions, which is really not his forte.

A month ago, I wrote as much for the Washington Redskins-Dallas Cowboys game. My prediction came true - Dallas failed to cover the 11 points, narrowly edging the 'Skins 28-23.

The forecast wasn't especially bold, nor was the outcome surprising. Anytime two NFC East foes go up against each other, it always seems to be a close affair. Of the nine divisional games played so far, six of them have been decided by 10 points or fewer; five of them were games that involved either the Eagles or Cowboys.

This weekend, Philadelphia will travel to Dallas as 11-point underdogs. Getcha popcorn (and wagers) ready.

I like the Eagles for a number of reasons - Philly has covered eight of its last 11 games in Dallas, four of their last five road games and swept the Cowboys a year ago. There's also the problematic Cowboys run defense, which has been shredded in recent weeks. Last Sunday, Kevin Jones and TJ Duckett combined for 152 yards and three TDs on the ground; the week before, Ryan Grant averaged 6.7 yards per carry and blew through for a 62-yard touchdown run. This is great news for Brian Westbrook, the former Villanova standout who's enjoyed great success against Dallas.

Back in Week 9, most of the Eagles had an afternoon to forget as they were rolled up by the Cowboys 38-17. But not B-West. He caught a season-high 14 passes for 90 yards and chipped in with 65 yards on the ground. This is similar to what I expect this weekend in Dallas: a heavy dose of Westbrook in both the running and passing games that should translate into clock-killing drives. If there's one thing about Philly in recent weeks, it's that they've kept all their games close. Outside of a 10-point win in Miami, four of their last five games have been decided by eight points or fewer. And the teams they went to the wire against? Washington, New England, Seattle and the New York Giants, teams with a combined record of 37-15.

The Eagles play with pride and even though they're essentially out of the playoff chase, they'll give the Cowboys all they can handle. Take Philly and the points.

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