Week 13 NFL Picks & Betting Trends

Nov. 21st, 2007

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

This week, we break down four turkeys to help bettors make more informed NFL betting picks. The following are for Week 13:

Last Sunday against the Bills, David Garrard was 23 of 37 for 296 yards and a touchdown as the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) won their third in a row 36-14.

Garrard might not be the flashiest passer in football, but he's definitely one of the most responsible. The 29-year-old hasn't thrown a single interception in 2007. That's right, 209 attempts and no picks for the big guy, the only regular quarterback in the entire league to boast that accomplishment.

"He's definitely the key to our team right now," wide receiver Ernest Wilford said. "I feel excited. We're in a good situation."

Next up for Garrard and the Jags is AFC South rival Indianapolis (9-2) on Sunday at the RCA Dome. Oddsmakers like the Colts by seven points, which is pretty generous considering both teams' recent play. Jacksonville has covered its last three spreads, not to mention the last six in which Garrard has played the entire game. Remember he left Week 7's meeting with Indy, a 29-7 defeat, in the second quarter with a sprained ankle.

As for the Colts, Peyton Manning rediscovered his groove on Thursday at Atlanta but has still thrown nine interceptions in his last four games. The Jags' defense is sixth in the NFL with 14 interceptions.

Something to keep an eye on: Manning's favorite target, Marvin Harrison, might return for Sunday's game but that’s far from certain at the moment.

"It's hard to say," Dungy said Monday. "That's what we're hoping, that Marvin will be back and ready to go and practice. If he's able to do that and play, that will be a big lift to us."

Call me crazy, but last week's New York Giants' 41-17 loss to the Minnesota Vikings wasn't all that surprising. It was their 16-10 victory over Detroit the week before (following the loss to Dallas) that went against the trend.

Consider their streaky history:

In 2002, New York went on one three-game winning streak and one four-gamer.

In 2003, the Giants lost three straight and eight straight.

In 2004, they had a four-game winning streak and another eight-game losing streak.

In 2005, there was a return to normalcy with just two three-game winning streaks.

But 2006 saw a five-game winning streak and a four-game losing streak.

So far in 2007, the Giants have already gone on a six-game winning streak after losing their first two straight. An extended losing streak to close out the season is not beyond the realm of reality considering their remaining schedule – at Chicago, at Philadelphia, Washington, at Buffalo and New England.

This week, the G-men are actually 1.5-point road favorites versus the Bears. After Eli Manning’s four-interception performance against the Vikings, plus the fact Chicago has won three of its last five, the Bears look like a good home dog to get behind.

Free NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread
Bodog Nation Staff Selections

By now, you've all heard the Eagle blueprint for beating (even though, technically, they didn't beat them) the New England Patriots:

• Rush with your front four
• Linebackers stay at home
• Get physical with receivers
• Hit, hit and hit

It's an interesting strategy, belied by the Philly personnel and Jim Johnson's innovative blitz packages. Thanks in no small part to the rush ability of the Eagles' defensive line - Trent Cole, Broderick Bunkley, Juqua Thomas and Mike Patterson - Philadelphia was able to get pressure on Tom Brady with limited players, often rushing just three or four guys. The Eagles came away with three sacks on the night, and the most pressure Brady has seen all year. This allowed the cornerbacks to play zone coverage and consistently lay wood on Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth.

Don't think Rex Ryan wasn't paying attention.

The Baltimore defensive coordinator has a very similar defensive makeup to Philadelphia. His front four - Trevor Pryce, Kelly Gregg, Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs - all have great motors and have combined for nine sacks. With Ray Lewis, Bart Scott, Ed Reed and Dawan Landry roaming the secondary, the Patriots receivers can expect another Sunday of hit-filled football.

Teams are now forced to play New England the same way the Patriots used to play their arch nemesis, Indianapolis: be physical with receivers, jam at the line of scrimmage and make 'em pay for going across the middle.

It's a philosophy that throws off timing patterns and keeps teams from scoring at will. Therefore, I'll gladly take Baltimore plus the 21 points at home on Monday Night Football, even against the Patriot juggernaut.

First off, congrats to the Dolphins, who opened as a favorite for just the second time this year (they were 3.5-point favorites against Oakland in Week 4, a game they lost 35-17). Sometimes the small victories are just as rewarding as the big ones.

This, sadly, might be the lone positive for Miami. After losing their sixth game of the season by three points or less against Pittsburgh, the Dolphins have a lot more questions than answers. Can they win a game? How many more running backs will be injured? Is John Beck the real deal? Should Cam Cameron be fired?

In New York, similar questions abound. Kellen Clemens has supplanted Chad Pennington as the starting QB, but still looks awfully raw. He could only muster one scoring drive during an embarrassing 34-3 loss to Dallas on Thanksgiving and finished with a 45.6 QB rating. He's probably the only thing keeping the Jets - who already beat Miami 31-28 this year - from being favored in this contest.

There won't be much attention paid to this game, especially with the line (Miami is a small surprise as a one-point favorite, but the spread won't exactly garner much action) and the lack of drama and intrigue. We won't even get to see the Ricky Williams comeback tour stretch into its second week - sticky icky Ricky is done for the year after tearing a chest muscle against the Steelers.

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