Week 12 Handicapping the BCS

With the Buckeyes' loss, a place in the national title game is once again up for grabs

Nov 16th, 2007

By Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

The world of college football was shaken up yet again this weekend as top-ranked Ohio State fell to Illinois. (Hey, don't say we didn't warn you.) So where does that leave everyone else? Let's run down the remaining BCS title contenders.

No. 1 – LSU (9-1)
Odds to win the 2008 BCS National Championship: 8/5

The Tigers didn't do anything overly impressive on Saturday. Their 58-10 win over Louisiana Tech (4-6) was as expected. It was their third straight victory after a shocking loss to Kentucky. Next up for LSU is a trip to Mississippi (3-7), a home affair with Arkansas (6-4) and, the big capper, the SEC championship game.

Neither the Rebels nor Razorbacks are tough games on paper, but that doesn't mean the Tigers can sleep on them. Ole Miss gave Florida and Alabama tough games this year at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium while Arkansas has won three of its last four and has Darren McFadden, he of the eight 100-plus yards rushing games.

As it stands, Tennessee appears to be the other team headed to the Georgia Dome on Dec. 1 for the SEC title game. If the Vols beat Vanderbilt and Kentucky, they're in. If they choke, Georgia can jump in. Considering the Bulldogs are coming off huge wins over Florida and Auburn – not to mention, they'd ostensibly be the home team in Atlanta – the Tigers will likely be pulling for the guys in orange to win out.

No. 2 – Oregon (8-1)
Odds to win the 2008 BCS National Championship: 3/2

Cameron Colvin must still have nightmares about his fumble against Cal. The good news for the Ducks is that they've done everything possible to recover from their lone loss, including victories over No. 11 USC (8-2) and No. 8 Arizona State (9-1). Back-to-back road games at Arizona (4-6) and UCLA (5-5) are next and then home to face Oregon State (6-4) in the Civil War.

The Ducks might not have to merely win these remaining games; they might have to win them in style. BCS voters will expect blowouts and anything less could easily push one of the teams below into the No. 2 spot.

Fans in Eugene are surely remembering the 2001-02 season when Nebraska was sent to the Rose Bowl instead of the Ducks, even though the Cornhuskers lost the Big 12 title game, 62-36, to Colorado. Will the Pac-10 get snubbed again?

No. 3 – Kansas (10-0)
Odds to win the 2008 BCS National Championship: 8/1

The undefeated Jayhawks are still an unknown entity considering their toughest matchups to date have been against Kansas State (5-5), Colorado (5-6), Texas A&M (6-5), Nebraska (5-6) and Oklahoma State (5-5). Simply a murderers' row of mediocrity. However, a perfect record against the spread is fairly solid proof that Kansas is for real.

Iowa State (3-8) shouldn't present much of a problem on Saturday and that leaves No. 5 Missouri (9-1) the following week at Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium as the big test. Not surprisingly, the faithful are pretty excited for the Border Showdown.

The winner of the Kansas-Missouri game will head to the Big 12 title game on Dec. 1 at the Alamodome in San Antonio where it will likely face No. 4 Oklahoma (9-1).

No. 4 – Oklahoma (9-1)
Odds to win the 2008 BCS National Championship: 4/1

The Sooners' hiccup at Colorado on Sept. 29 still looms large for Bob Stoops' squad. The Buffaloes scored 20 unanswered points (17 in the fourth quarter) that day to come back from 24-7 down to win 27-24 on a 45-yard field goal with no time remaining. Other than that, Oklahoma has dominated its competition. Victories over Texas (9-2) and Missouri highlight its résumé.

Oddsmakers obviously like the Sooners' chances of beating either Kansas or Missouri in San Antonio, evidenced by their 4/1 odds to win the national championship compared to the Jayhawks at 8/1 and Tigers at 9/1.

Two regular season games against Texas Tech (7-4) and Oklahoma State will provide the Sooners solid opportunities to help voters forget about the Colorado fiasco.

No. 5 – Missouri (9-1)
Odds to win the 2008 BCS National Championship: 9/1

A lone loss at Oklahoma on Oct. 13 is nothing to be ashamed of, not when you've already beaten Illinois and hammered Texas Tech. Unfortunately, that's about it. Even if the Tigers win out, which would include victories over Kansas State, Kansas and probably Oklahoma, they could be hard-pressed to leapfrog LSU or Oregon, both of whom have beaten their fair share of top-ranked sides.

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