Week 12 NFL Picks & Betting Trends

Nov. 21st, 2007

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

This week, we break down four turkeys to help bettors make more informed NFL betting picks. The following are for Week 12:

Here was the book on Norv Turner prior to landing the San Diego Chargers job:

• Record: 63-87-1
• Lacks: Charisma, leadership skills, motivational abilities
• Can: develop quarterbacks

The last point seemed most important in the hiring process. Turner's past transformations of signal callers – Troy Aikman, Alex Smith, Gus Frerotte and Brad Johnson, to name a few – assured many that a similar takeoff was in store for Philip Rivers.

A year ago, Rivers made the Pro Bowl in his first season as starter. Thus, huge expectations were on the table for 2007 – but here's what the San Diego faithful are getting: Rivers ranks 21st in passer rating, 21st in completion percentage and 20th in yards per game. That's hovering around the likes of Joey Harrington, Brian Griese and Damon Huard, quarterbacks who don't line up alongside Pro Bowl talent like LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates.Is Rivers the lone scapegoat for this unimpressive Chargers campaign?

Oh, hell no.

Turner has marginalized Tomlinson to the point where LDT is on pace for a career low in carries, forcing Rivers into a myriad of passing scenarios involving a young, inexperienced receiving group. Four of Tomlinson's nine TDs came in a single game against the woeful Raiders and he’s only broken the 100-yard barrier twice this season.

Aside from his questionable offensive schema, Turner has failed to inspire his players and may have lost the locker room. Shawne Merriman publicly blasted the coaching staff after Sunday's 24-17 loss to Jacksonville, saying, "We have to have the ability to change during the game and make adjustments," while adding, "I don't call the plays, I don't recommend them."

While he backed off those comments slightly in subsequent interviews, the fact still remains that two of San Diego's leaders – Merriman and Tomlinson – have openly questioned the coaching staff just 10 games into the Turner regime.

Chad Johnson embodies all that is wrong with the 3-7 Cincinnati Bengals. He, like his team, is supremely talented. And he, like his team, is more about style than substance.

When Chad plays well, Chad talks. When Chad doesn't - which has been the case for most of this season - Chad pouts. The normally boastful receiver hasn't spoken to the Cincy media since Oct. 22, his vow of silence garnering almost as much attention as his usual trash-talking ways.

While Johnson's production has only slightly tailed off - he's on pace for 1,500 receiving yards but just five TDs, which would be his lowest total since 2002 - it's his lack of explosiveness and playmaking that is concerning. With one 100-yard game in his last seven contests, Johnson has emerged as a second fiddle to TJ Houshmandzadeh, the Bengals' top WR.

Chad has also struggled as a deep threat, once his forte. The last four weeks have seen him become something of a possession receiver, catching a lot of balls (20) for minimal yards (his longest reception went for 24 yards).

Sure, there are several reasons why the Bengals are arguably the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year (Carson Palmer, the entire defense, jail) - but Johnson remains at the forefront of this traveling sideshow. He's likely worn out his welcome in Cincinnati and might be talking his unique brand of nonsense somewhere else next season.

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Bodog Nation Staff Selections

The one with the biggest wattle has to be Falcons coach Bobby Petrino, who last week decided to start quarterback Byron Leftwich against Tampa Bay, even though Joey Harrington had led the Falcons to consecutive wins over San Francisco and Carolina. Leftwich responded by throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice, forcing Harrington into relief of the 31-7 drubbing. This Thursday against Indianapolis, Harrington gets the start. Of course, reports indicate it would've been Leftwich, if not for a tailbone injury.

Speaking of Leftwich, you know you're having a bad year when you get cut in favor of David Garrard and Quinn Gray and then can't even outplay Harrington, the NFL's version of the last kid picked. In three appearances, Leftwich has thrown two TD passes and five interceptions, good for a QB rating of 51.4.

As for Harrington, the saddest fact might be that he's having his best season as a professional. He's completed 64.8 percent of his passes with just five interceptions for a QB rating of 83.3. If not for that Monday night disaster against the Giants, he might still be the starter.

Harrington is certainly familiar with holiday games, having started his career with the Detroit Lions. From 2002 to 2005 – a span of four games – Harrington didn't throw a single touchdown during the Thanksgiving Classic. To be fair, he did throw for three scores last year with Miami as the Dolphins hammered those same Lions by a score of 27-10. He still got booed though.

Sure, there are several reasons why the Bengals are arguably the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year (Carson Palmer, the entire defense, jail) - but Johnson remains at the forefront of this travelling sideshow. He's likely worn out his welcome in Cincinnati and might be talking his unique brand of nonsense somewhere else next season.

Just for fun, let's recap a few of the finer parts of Mr. Brijbassi's article:

"[Alex] Smith doesn't have [Carson] Palmer's arm, [Drew] Bledsoe's intensity in the huddle or [Troy] Aikman's football IQ, but he does have guts, and that will go a long way to justifying his $49.5 million contract to the people who matter most: his teammates."

Rebuttal: Forget guts, a completion percentage over 50 (right now, it's 48.7) and a rating over 60 (right now, it's 57.2) might go a little further to impressing Smith's teammates.

"The addition of Darrell Jackson gives Smith an experienced wideout who runs precise routes. Most importantly, though, is the continued emergence of [Vernon] Davis, the awesome tight end who caught only 20 passes last season because of injury."

Rebuttal: D-Jack has done exactly that (23 catches with one TD) and Vernon Davis has done about the same (30 catches with one TD).

"With [Frank] Gore, the 49ers have a fast, powerful back who totaled 1,695 yards last season."

Rebuttal: With Gore, the 49ers have a back who’s totaled 539 yards this season and is gaining just 3.9 yards per carry, a yard-and-a-half less than he did in 2006.

"The 49ers' Super Bowl odds are 18/1, and they're 7/1 to win the NFC, an indication of tepid respect."

Rebuttal: The 49ers' Super Bowl odds are 4,000/1, and they're 1,000/1 to win the NFC, an indication of accuracy.

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