Week 10 NFL Picks & Betting Trends

Nov. 9, 2007

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Each week, we break down four trends to help bettors make more informed NFL betting picks The following are for Week 10:

Oddsmakers are giving New York two points as of last check, and that's nuts. The G-men have won six straight games and have had two weeks to prepare for the Cowboys, who played late Sunday in Philadelphia.

Sure, the Giants remain somewhat inconsistent on offense – that's what you get with Eli Manning at quarterback – but they're playing some great defensive ball. In their last five games they've surrendered an average of 12.4 points. New York also leads the NFL with 30 sacks, and that's bad news for Tony Romo, who we all know can be somewhat mistake-prone at times. Well, pressure forces even more mistakes.

Of course, even if the Cowboys manage a few offensive forays, the Giants have already had success moving the ball against Dallas, so don't think it has to be a low-scoring affair for New York to be successful. In Week 1, the Giants racked up 438 total yards (314 passing, 124 rushing) at Texas Stadium in a wild, 45-35 Cowboys victory. The offensive potential on both sides is reflected in the total: 49, the highest on the Week 10 betting board.

A few trends to consider while we're at it: The home team is 11-5-2 against the spread in the past 18 Giants-Cowboys meetings, and Dallas is 2-5-1 against the spread in its last eight trips to New York to play the Giants.

Of course, what the Pats have done this season wasn't ever a conceivable circumstance.

It stared poorly, to say the least. Four straight losses for the team that came within a game of reaching last year's Super Bowl. And it wasn't just that the Saints lost, it was how: 41-10 at Indianapolis, 31-14 at Tampa Bay, 31-14 home to Tennessee and 16-13 home to Carolina. Along the way, not a single point spread was covered.

Even more distressing for those in the bayou, nothing was worse than the play of quarterback Drew Brees. The same guy who many credited with turning the franchise around in 2006 was absolutely horrific during the winless stretch, throwing nine interceptions with a single TD. He had just 11 picks all of last season.

But it all changed with a Week 6 trip to Seattle where the Saints beat the Seahawks 28-17. That Sunday night on national television, Brees threw two touchdowns and completed his first interception-free performance of the season.

Since then, the Saints have won three more games, the most recent coming Sunday at home over Jacksonville, 41-24. The line on Brees? Three TDs on 445 yards passing with no interceptions.

This week, the Saints welcome the hapless St. Louis Rams (0-8) to the Superdome where oddsmakers like the home team by 12. Amazingly, considering everything up to Week 4, a win would push New Orleans into a tie for first in the NFC South with Tampa Bay (5-4 with a bye) and possibly Carolina (4-4 vs. Atlanta).

Free NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread
Bodog Nation Staff Selections

If Monday's debacle showed anything, it was that the Blitzburgh defense is alive and well. Steve McNair and the Baltimore Ravens' offense couldn't handle the relentless pressure coming from the linebackers and secondary – they were missing a strong, athletic receiving target to occupy the space left by onrushing Steelers.

Thankfully for Derek Anderson and the Cleveland Browns, they've got one.

Kellen Winslow Jr. has emerged as the AFC’s most gifted tight end, a 6-foot-4-inch, 248–pound, pass-catching machine that torched Seattle for 125 yards on 11 receptions last weekend. This Sunday, K2 will once again be in the spotlight as the Browns head into Heinz Field as 10-point underdog to the heavily favored Steelers.

Having already enjoyed moderate success against Pittsburgh earlier this year – the lone bright spot in Cleveland's 34-7 opening day loss to the Steelers, Winslow caught four balls for 83 yards – expect offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski to get the ball into No. 80's hands early and often this weekend. Cleveland is an impressive 3-1 this year when Winslow catches five passes or more; they're 5-2 when Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards combine for 10 catches or more.

But the focus should be on Winslow, who has emerged as Derek Anderson's security blanket when the pressure is on. His reception numbers against the blitz – 20 catches for 367 yards and two TDs – are compelling stuff in the face of a Pittsburgh defense that harassed Baltimore into six sacks, three fumbles and an interception Monday night.

Cleveland has covered four of its last five with the last two games decided by three and seven points, respectively. It adds up to a strong possibility of covering double-digits this Sunday.

Banged-up QBs, one-dimensional passing games and stout defenses. This one has all the makings for a grind-ball affair.

The Titans are riding an impressive winning streak in low-scoring affairs – they're 4-1 in games where the combined score falls under 33 points; this includes their last two victories against Carolina (20-7) and Oakland (13-9).

One might expect Tennessee to have some success against a Jaguars defense that has been gouged over the last three games. New Orleans hung 41 points on them last Sunday, and the week before that, Tampa Bay scored 23. Before that, Indy put up 29. You'd have to go back to the first week of October – a 17-7 stomping of Kansas City – to find the last dominant defensive effort put forth by the Jaguars.

But for all the problems Jacksonville is having defensively, the Titans will be hard pressed to exploit them. Yes, LenDale White, Chris Brown and Vince Young combined to run for 282 yards in the season opener at Jacksonville – but that dominant ground game only resulted in 13 points scored.

And it's not as if the Titans can lean on their passing game for scores. Young hasn't thrown a TD since a Week 3 victory over New Orleans and has failed to throw for over 200 yards this year.

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