Bodog NFL Player Odds

No team helped its QB more in the offseason than the Denver Broncos

July 30, 2007

By Adrian Brijbassi
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

Jay Cutler was born in Santa Claus, Indiana, so you figure he must be used to gifts. He's been on the receiving end of several in the past few months. And they've been pricey ones too. A $15-million tight end, a $12-million running back, and a wide receiver with a Super Bowl ring.

As NFL training camps enter their first full week of practice, I'm taking a look at a few players whose performances are most likely to decide the success and failure of their respective teams. Cutler is at the top of the list of candidates to boom or bust for no other reason than the Broncos have done so much to set him up for great things. Missing the playoffs would be a massive disappointment for Mike Shanahan's bunch.

In his rookie season, Cutler was 2-3 down the stretch after taking over for beleaguered Jake Plummer. He threw five interceptions, two of which were run back for TDs, and he fumbled at least once in each start. Those are the bad stats. The good ones include 1,001 yards passing, nine TDs, a 59.1 completion percentage and 88.5 QB rating. Throw in the fact the Broncos averaged a touchdown more with Cutler at the helm (24.8 points per game compared to 17.7 under Plummer) and you can see why Shanahan believes so much in his 2006 first-round draft choice.

"He's been working out here, and he's done a great job with the receivers and our players in general," the coach said during camp last week. "He can't do it by himself, though. And that's why we've got, I'm hoping, a pretty good supporting cast."

Denver signed Daniel Graham away from New England and grabbed Brandon Stokley when he was cut by the Colts. Not only do those two give Cutler possession receivers, they also can educate him on how the best quarterbacks in the game operate.

"Daniel and Brandon both offer advice: 'You might want to run this a little deeper. This is how Peyton [Manning] or Tom Brady might do something,' " Cutler said. "They've been around some really great quarterbacks, and it helps make my job easier."

So, too, does the arrival of Travis Henry, a 1,200-yard rusher last year with Tennessee. He will be Mile High's most complete running back since Clinton Portis and the Broncos' vaunted zone-blocking scheme fits him well, a fact that has fantasy football zealots slobbering to draft him.

With the addition of those three skill-position players, Cutler will be counted on to elevate the Broncos, 9-7 last year, into contender status. He also must become a leader for a team still coping with the sudden death of two players - Darrent Williams and Damien Nash - in the offseason. So far, NFL bettors have moderate expectations. The Broncos' Super Bowl odds are 20/1 and their over/under for wins is 9.5. With the San Diego Chargers in the AFC West, Denver is pegged to be no better than a wild-card team.

It's a long, unpredictable season, though, and the Broncos' most avid fans have already looked at the schedule and circled Denver's visit to San Diego for a Monday night game in Week 16. That contest could decide the division. Those who believe these are boom times for the Man from Santa Claus would also have smiled when they noticed the date of that game - Christmas Eve.

Other key Boom or Bust players:

RB DeAngelo Williams (Boom) - John Fox is 41-30 in five years as the Carolina Panthers' coach and in each year following a playoff-less season he's led his team to the NFC Championship Game. Carolina was on the outside at 8-8 last year and for Fox's rebound trend to continue he must improve a running game that ranked 24th in the league.

That means Williams, a second-year back out of Memphis, has to blister behind a new one-cut-and-go zone-blocking scheme similar to what Denver employs.

He has to beat out injury-prone DeShaun Foster in training camp, but once he accomplishes that feat Williams should ascend, sending the Panthers over their conservatively projected betting total of nine wins.

Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden (Busts) - The Colts hope this duo can replace cornerbacks Nick Harper and Jason David, who left via free agency. Jackson and Hayden were both high draft picks two years ago and although they have talent, the lack of experience is going to hurt. The loss of linebacker Cato June means Indy's talented defensive line will have to be a little less aggressive on the pass rush because their support against the run has weakened.

That will leave quarterbacks more time to pick on the defensive backs. The Colts are projected to win 11 games, but signs point to a Super Bowl letdown. Indy has too much of its salary-cap space tied up in a handful of superstars. That usually means trouble - just ask the Washington Redskins.

Tarvaris Jackson (Boom) - The Vikings finished 6-10 a year ago, set a franchise low for passing TDs (13) and did little to address their anemic offense prior to training camp. How can I expect their unaccomplished second-year quarterback to succeed? A couple of reasons. I think their offensive line with Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie (once he's healthy) will allow first-round pick Adrian Peterson (who just inked a deal on Sunday) to excel.

Also, Minnesota's defense is one of the most unheralded in the league. They will keep the Vikings in games and Jackson won't have to drop back on every down to play catch up. Under Brad Childress, Minnesota is heading in the right direction. Jackson will have the chance to get this team to .500 and if he does he'll have made you money. The Vikes over/under for wins is seven.

The Undercard

That's upsetting
My buddy Mike Thier from Carolina sees nothing illegitimate about the pending coronation of Barry Bonds as baseball's home run king. "If he did steroids, so what? He didn't have an unfair advantage over anyone because steroids weren't banned by baseball until two years ago. You can make the argument Barry Lamar Bonds was only playing by the same rules as every other power hitter in baseball. If you want to talk about skewed records, what about Babe Ruth's 714 home runs? He didn't hit one of those against a Negro League pitcher. As far as I'm concerned, the only real home run champions are Josh Gibson and Sadaharu Oh because they hit more home runs than anybody." What's really upsetting about this tirade by Mikey the Mouth is: 1. He was ranting on my dime; 2. He's coming to visit and I'm out of ear plugs.

Proof of disorder in the universe
Attendance at the 90,000-capacity Los Angeles Coliseum for Saturday's SuperLiga soccer match featuring the David Beckham-less L.A. Galaxy: 37,377. Estimated attendance in tiny Cooperstown, N.Y., for the induction of Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn into baseball's Hall of Fame: 75,000.

Coolest song of the week
Fake Empire by The National (last week: It's Hard to be a Saint in the City by Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band).

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