2007 NFL Midseason Betting Report

Oct 31 , 2007

By Adrian Brijbassi
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

On Sunday, an NFL quarterback said this: "It's a long season. It's not even November yet, and we've got a lot of room for improvement left."

The statement should've been uttered by Carson Palmer, whose Cincinnati Bengals are mired in last place. The words would also suit Drew Brees' situation with the Saints. After a horrendous 0-4 start, New Orleans has won three straight. Still, as the quote above hints, plenty of work remains for Brees and Co. if they hope to return to the postseason.

In fact, just about every quarterback in the league helms a team that has "lots of room for improvement" and, therefore, reason to say something befitting of the meek. The one signal caller not in that predicament and the one who has no business relating anything that hints at dissatisfaction with the way his team is playing is Tom Brady, especially after the Patriots' 52-7 pasting of the Washington Redskins.

Then again, these Patriots are doing what we think is impossible, so maybe it should be no surprise that it was their quarterback who sounded so dour. Perhaps when you're this good, the only way to keep interested is to nitpick.

In two sentences that some might consider innocuous, Brady told us what New England is about. The Patriots are after perfection, and not only on the record books.

Watching these guys, you can see they’re not content unless each possession, each play goes the way they envisioned.

Through eight weeks, they've dominated everything to do with the NFL, this midseason recap included.

Midseason MVP: It's Brady, of course, but give Randy Moss some votes. He has every opponent paranoid of the big play, and that allows Brady space to operate.

Biggest betting surprise: The domination of the Patriots on the field and against the spread. Right now, most of us remain awestruck when we should be starting to get bored of the act. It's like the Pats look at the point spread each week and think of it as a target rather than a constraint. If they happen to blow away the Colts in Week 9, people will tune in just to see the final score.

Most disappointing team: The Rams were supposed to contend for the NFC West title, and Steven Jackson had his eyes set on 2,000 yards rushing. After eight games, they're winless and only 1-7 ATS – even the Dolphins (0-8 overall, 2-5 ATS) have been a better play.

Most disappointing player: Vince Young, Reggie Bush, Vernon Davis. Take your pick. They all happen to be on my fantasy football team.

Top rookie: Adrian Peterson is running away from defenses as well as his opposition for this award. The first-round pick is a key reason the Vikings (3-4 overall and ATS) are flirting with the .500 mark.

What team to cash in on in the second half: The Cleveland Browns have a winning record (4-3) and are 5-2 ATS. They're also a consistently strong over play, meaning the offense – thought to be the team's most deficient area entering the season – is scoring on almost everyone. They're averaging over 27 points per game and have won three of four outright.

Who's going to make the AFC playoffs?: New England, Indianapolis and San Diego were the givens before the season, and now that the Chargers have righted themselves, the triumvirate seems likely to again reach the postseason. Pittsburgh also looks like it should hold on to win its division. That leaves the two wildcard spots. Tennessee and Jacksonville are both 5-2, but the Jaguars have a brutal schedule ahead. They're at resurgent New Orleans next week, then play on the road again when they meet the Titans in a big divisional game. On Nov. 18, Jacksonville hosts San Diego. The Jaguars have had plenty of chances to prove they're a legitimate contender and failed often. I think they play their way out, leaving room for one of the surprise teams (Cleveland or Kansas City) to sneak in.

What about the NFC?: Usually a trainwreck at midseason, the NFC appears to have some semblance of sanity. The Cowboys, Packers and Lions look like the real deal while the Seahawks figure to win the West by default. Assuming the Giants don't implode like they have the past two seasons, they'll be in as either the East winner or a wildcard team if they can't catch Dallas. That leaves the South winner, which more and more is looking like New Orleans.

Who's going to win the Patriots at Colts showdown?: I don't think anyone should be picking against the Patriots until they lose, or at least fail to cover the spread. What I will do is bet the over on this game. It could play in the high 70s to low 80s.

Random Thoughts on the Week in Sports

• Boston sports fans during the past week not only got to celebrate the Red Sox World Series sweep and another rout by the Patriots, they also saw the miracle comeback by Matt Ryan and Boston College. And, to top it off, they learned that Alex Rodriguez had spurned the Yankees to become an unrestricted free agent. When life is good, it's ridiculous.
• You know how the NFL teams limit their star players' minutes during the preseason? The NBA should think about doing the same thing. Seattle's Kevin Durant sprained his ankle bad enough last week to be relegated to crutches. The betting favorite to be named rookie of the year was hurt with less than four minutes to play in the fourth quarter. Having their franchise player hobbling onto the court isn’t the way the Sonics wanted to enter the season.
• The NHL would love it if the Edmonton Oilers were in a shootout in every game. Even though the Oilers are in last place in the Northwest Division, they always come up with an awesome one-on-one delivery that actually finds its way onto SportsCenter as well as the back of the net.

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