Horses Handicapping

By Greg Melikov: I've found that winning trainer-jockey combinations over the past several years have become an important ingredient in my recipe for successful handicapping. Such stats have been around for a long time, but didn't come into vogue until the 1990s.

Now you can find them most anywhere in print or online -- free or for a fee.

However, not all handicappers feel the same way I do. For example, TVG co-host/researcher Rich Perloff says:

“I think it can be very instructional. I pay more attention to the trainer right off than the jockey. If a horse interests me I check further.”

“Naturally, I handicap the horse first,” I responded by e-mail. “Among other factors I consider are track bias, class drops, first time Lasix or blinkers, etc.”

The late, great Chicago Sun-Times horseman-for-all-seasons Dave Feldman, who I met at Gulfstream Park in the '90s, once told me: “I never saw a jockey carry a horse over the finish line yet.” Nor a trainer either, Dave, I should have told him.

In the '90s, trainer Bill Mott and jockey Jerry Bailey were almost unbeatable at the South Florida track.

Mott won three of six straight titles while Bailey was tops in '95, '96 and '98. Bailey rode fewer and fewer times in the following years, but always was among the highest winning percentages, thanks partly to Mott's horses that put the conditioner on top from 2000 to '02.

The main reason Perloff shies away from top trainer/jockey stats is because he doesn't particular relish picking chalk: “The prices aren't there.”

Of course, I look at the whole picture and often play exotics, but do not toss out the favorite if that's the best horse in a race. If the odds are so unrewarding, I simply skip the race.

Jim Mazur is a handicapping guru who compiles facts and figures on tracks throughout the country. I first met him at Gulfstream. He's president of Progressive Handicapping ( www.proghandicap.com/index.html ) and produces interesting reports on meetings most helpful to horseplayers.

For example, his 18 th edition of Gulfstream Handicapper 2007 includes these tidbits about jockey-trainer combos:

“Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream (33 percent win average). But, at Gulfstream, (John) Velazquez actually has a higher winning average aboard horses trained by Peter Walder (34 percent).

“This is a meet in which we encounter some off-beat combinations consisting of jockeys and trainers from different racing circuits. For example, at the '06 meet, (Javier) Castellano (N.Y.) hooked up for five wins on horses trained by Ian Wilkes (Ky., 5 for 19). Eddie Castro (then of Calder) got hot when riding for Southern California shipper Mike Mitchell (5 for 15).

“A top N. Y. rider who suddenly appears on a horse trained by a Calder trainer should always be a signal to stop and re-examine that horse. Last year, Cornelio Velasquez hit at a 30 percent clip (6 for 20) with horses trained by Ralph Ziadie.

“Calder trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. also attracts top riders albeit a different name each year. In '04, Plesa used Rene Douglas, but then switched to Jorge Chavez in '05. Last year, it was Edgar Prado who rode four winners (4 for 18) for Plesa.”

For all Horse Racing lines, visit VIP.com

More VIP.com "The Edge" Articles...