AFC Title Game Preview

And they proved it by giving up 22.5 points per game and a league-worst 173 rushing yards.

But in two playoff appearances, Indianapolis has allowed a grand total of 14 points. Their opponents have converted just 13.6% of their third-down opportunities. Perhaps most importantly, the Colts forced the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens to cough up the ball a combined nine times. Baltimore led the league this year in giveaway/takeaway ratio at +15; Kansas City was fourth at +6.

This impressive turnaround, along with the elimination of the Ravens and the San Diego Chargers, leaves Indianapolis atop the Super Bowl futures market at 7-5. But the Colts won’t even make it to Miami unless their star player wakes up and smells the artificial turf. Quarterback Peyton Manning has thrown five interceptions in his last two games. It took him until Week 11 to throw that many during the regular season.

Manning is used to carrying the Colts on his back. Indianapolis had the most efficient offense in the NFL during the 2006 campaign, covering for a defense that was ranked 27th and a special-teams unit that placed 26th. But Manning isn’t even shouldering the burden on offense these days. Instead, rookie running back Joseph Addai and place-kicker Adam Vinatieri are driving the Colts into Sunday’s AFC Conference title matchup with the New England Patriots.

Addai has been outstanding as the feature back in tandem with Dominic Rhodes. The former LSU Tiger torched the Chiefs for 148 combined yards and a touchdown in the 23-8 Wild Card win. He was limited to 61 yards by the Ravens, but Rhodes picked up the torch, carrying the ball 10 times in a clock-chewing drive in the fourth quarter.

Vinatieri then iced the game by kicking his fifth field goal a mistake-filled 15-6 final. The former Patriot is obviously no stranger to playoff success, but during the regular season, his short kick-offs and Hunter Smith’s relatively poor punting gave opponents excellent field position to work with. That usually spells doom in the postseason.

The big question for Sunday’s matchup with Vinatieri’s former team: Is this a mirage? Or have the Colts actually come up with a winning formula on defense? Yes, and yes. The Colts did improve their defense somewhat by focusing on the run and clogging up the middle – coach Tony Dungy called it “Buc Ball,” hearkening back to his days in Tampa Bay.

Having free safety Bob Sanders (10 tackles versus Baltimore) in the lineup after missing most of the season following arthroscopic knee surgery has also played a significant role. But Indy’s opponents made it a lot easier by committing mistake after mistake on offense. Kansas City’s Trent Green posted a season-low 48.4 passer rating in the Wild Card contest, while Baltimore’s Steve McNair wasn’t much better at 49.9.

Tom Brady likely won’t make the same mistakes when he leads the Patriots into the RCA Dome. He has three Super Bowl rings, while Green came into January with one playoff game under his belt, another loss to the Colts in 2003. McNair was brought to Baltimore in part because of his playoff experience with the Tennessee franchise, but since his run to Super Bowl XXXIV against the St. Louis Rams, McNair is 2-4 as a starter with five touchdowns and nine interceptions.

After an unfamiliar appearance as underdogs against Baltimore, the Colts will be 3-point favorites when they host the Patriots, winners of their past five games straight up and against the spread. The total is 47.5; Indy’s defensive renaissance cashed the Under in both playoff rounds, but the Over got paid for times in a row for the Patriots before narrowly missing out in their 24-21 Divisional round victory over the Chargers.

Kick-off is at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time on CBS.

For more online betting odds, please visit, VIP.com.

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