Penn St. vs Ohio St. Prediction

NCAAF: Penn State vs. Ohio State
Sep 23 2006 3:30PM
Favorite: Ohio State Buckeyes Over/Under 46

Since the beginning of the campaign there's been revenge on the Buckeyes' minds with September matchups against Texas and Penn State and it's one down, one to go.

Two weeks after winning a No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown in Austin, the top-ranked Buckeyes (3-0 SU & ATS) look to win the matchup of last year's Big Ten co-champions as they open conference play against No. 24 Penn State on Saturday at Ohio Stadium.

Ohio Stadium is the only Big Ten venue where Penn State (2-1 SU & 1-1 ATS) has not won since joining the conference in 1993. The Nittany Lions are 0-6 SU in Columbus since winning there 30 years ago. To make matters worse for Penn State investors the Buckeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.

That skid also includes the last time Penn State played the nation's No. 1 team, losing 28-9 at Ohio Stadium in 1998. The Buckeyes are looking to even the all-time series at 11 wins apiece. The home team is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings and the Nittany Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Columbus, Ohio.

Paterno's team likely must be at its best to win on the road against the Buckeyes, who have averaged 426.7 yards per game and have been tough to stop against the pass and the run.

While Pittman has rushed for 340 yards and 6.7 per carry, Troy Smith has hooked up with Ginn and Gonzalez a combined 31 times for 533 yards and seven touchdowns. Smith, one of Ohio State's eight returning starters on offense, has completed 69.1 percent of his passes for an average of 256.3 yards per game.

Penn State's defense already had a tough time with one Heisman-hopeful quarterback this season, allowing Notre Dame's Brady Quinn to complete 25 of 36 passes for 287 yards with three touchdowns. In their only game against a potent offense this year, the Nittany Lions failed to force a turnover while allowing the Irish to total 397 yards.

The duo of Anthony Morelli and Tony Hunt will try to find holes in an Ohio State defense which has surrendered only 26 points this season. Hunt, a 1,000-yard rusher last season, is coming off his best performance of the year with 143 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against Youngstown State. He was held to 110 rushing yards through the first two games.

Morelli played poorly last week as he went 11-of-27 for 154 yards. He failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in three games. The junior faces a Buckeyes team which had eight sacks, including three by defensive tackle Quinn Pitcock, and three interceptions last week.

If the Buckeyes can showcase another defensive beauty, the Nittany Lions will have absolutely no chance at a SU win and little chance at a cover.

Notable Game Trends:

- Buckeyes are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

- Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5+.

- Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

- Buckeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.

- Nittany Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 10.5+.

- Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

- Nittany Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

- Nittany Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

- Road team is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

- Under is 3-0 in Buckeyes last 3 games following a SU win.

- Under is 5-0 in Buckeyes last 5 games as a home favorite.

- Over is 3-0 in Nittany Lions last 3 games overall.

- Over is 5-2 in Nittany Lions last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

Prediction - Ohio State 31 Penn State 13

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