Jay Cutler To Start

The Jake Plummer Show is on hiatus.

The Denver Broncos officially announced on Monday that rookie Jay Cutler will be their starting quarterback for next Sunday night’s matchup at Mile High with the Seattle Seahawks. It’s a move that has been anticipated for some time – ever since training camp, where Cutler impressed Broncos’ staff with his cannon arm and intelligence. Plummer hastened the transition, however, by posting a 70.5 QB rating on 11 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. That marks the first time since Plummer joined Denver in 2003 that he’s thrown more picks than TDs, echoing his past struggles as a member of the Arizona Cardinals.

How will the dawn of the Cutler regime affect handicappers? Since the move was widely expected (and since Seattle was playing Monday night, delaying the publication of a line for their Week 13 matchup), there is little opportunity for technical analysis. Instead, cappers will have to juggle a combination of college numbers and scouting reports to visualize how Cutler will perform in his first NFL start.

Before doing that, it’s critical to look at Denver’s offensive line. While there are no regular-season NFL numbers on Cutler, the Broncos’ O-line has put up the kind of statistics that suggest it is much better at run blocking than pass protection. That won’t surprise longtime Broncos’ fans; this is a team that has consistently churned out 1,000-yard rushers, with this year’s duties being split by Tatum Bell and Mike Bell. Last year’s offensive line, though, was rated second in pass protection with just 22 sacks on the season (or 3.7 percent of plays). This year’s unit has dropped to 12th in the league after already giving up 18 sacks (5.6 percent).

That drop in protection has been bad news for Plummer. His decision-making has always been a level below his otherwise excellent mechanics and mobility. Cutler, on the other hand, has been praised as a quick thinker with a total command of the game. Because his college years were spent at Vanderbilt, he didn’t get nearly as much publicity as Matt Leinart or Vince Young, but football analysts and ex-quarterbacks Ron Jaworski and Steve Young both tabbed Cutler as the best QB prospect in the 2006 draft. The Broncos were understandably giddy when they were able to trade up and nab Cutler with the 11th overall pick – after both Young and Leinart.

The NFL isn’t considered a hospitable environment for rookie pivots, but now all three of these blue-chippers are starting. Cutler is the only one, however, taking over the No. 1 job on a winning team (the Broncos are 7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS). Since the Broncos are still a run-first team, and since the Seahawks were a disappointing 19th in the league after Week 11, with 117.8 rushing yards allowed per game, Cutler might not find Seattle to be that much more challenging than some of the SEC powerhouses he had to face in college.

Kick-off at Mile High is 8:15 p.m. Eastern Time on NBC.

Shawn Sillinger is a freelance journalist and a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room.

Posted on 11/27/2006 6:42:24 PM
NFL Betting: Cutler to Start for Broncos
by Shawn Sillinger

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