Bodog NFL Week 15 Picks

The bruising tailback out of Auburn earns his money doing the dirty work on the football field. He runs inside, punishes defenders and gains ground a couple yards at a time. The rest of the Cincinnati playmakers, like receivers Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chris Henry, prefer the occasional big score to the frequent pounding. Testament to his workload, Rudi Johnson has 276 rushing attempts on the season. The entire Bengal receiving corps has 272 catches.

"We always expect Rudi to come out and get 100 or 125 yards," quarterback Carson Palmer told The Cincinnati Post after the Bengals defeated the Raiders 27-10 on Sunday, a game in which Johnson ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns. "That's our goal every week - 125. We've been short of it a lot. But as the season goes on and we are where we are right now with three games left, we're really going to be leaning on Rudi."

Still, it's Palmer and his band of merry wideouts that garner most of the glory in southwestern Ohio. But that could all change Monday night when the Bengals travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts.

If you have eyes, ears, or just one of the two, you'll know the Colts have had a wee bit of a problem stopping the run in recent weeks.

Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars sprinted for a whopping 375 rushing yards as the Colts fell 44-17 and lost their third game in four tries. The Sunday before, the Titans ran for 219 yards on 35 carries.

All told, the Indy run D is surrendering 176.5 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry.

Injuries are certainly a legitimate excuse for the Colts. Defensive tackles Corey Simon and Montae Regnor are both out for the year. Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders, who missed last week's debacle, has struggled all season with his health.

But injuries are only the beginning. According to Colts coach Tony Dungy, his team has also suffered the effects of smarter opponents.

"People have played us a lot differently, and it's probably the thing to do," Dungy told The News-Sentinel. "For a few years, people came in feeling like, `Hey, we're going to have to get a lot of points, so we're going to throw and try to score a lot.' This year, people have said, `Hey, we're just going to try to do what we can do and run and maybe not get ourselves in those throwing situations.' "

Not to escape blame, the Colt defense has also played downright poorly at times, missing tackles like the Oakland Raiders miss the '70s and '80s: Frequently.

On Monday night, it might well be a case of "choose your poison" for the defenders wearing horseshoes on their helmets. If they choose to keep an extra body in the box to deal with the run, the secondary could be in even bigger trouble against one of the best receiving trios in the league.

If not, Johnson could be in for a busy day. And that's a good thing for his team. The Bengals are 17-0 when he gets at least 25 carries.

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QUICK HITS - NFL WEEK 15 PREVIEWS

Compiled by Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Last week, the Seahawks stumbled on their way to a first-round bye with a loss to the Cardinals. This week, the prospect of playing in the postseason without the raucous Qwest Field crowd should provide ample motivation for a win over the struggling 49ers. The 'Hawks will need to stop RB Frank Gore if they're to cover the large spread. Incidentally, that's the same guy who racked up 212 rushing yards in San Fran's 20-14 win over Seattle in Week 11. -JB

All of a sudden, Tony Romo is but a mere mortal. The Dallas QB had his second consecutive mediocre game Monday against New Orleans. In Weeks 13 and 14 combined, Romo completed just 54 percent of his passing attempts for one TD and four picks. Meanwhile, the Falcons appear to have righted the ship. They've rattled off back-to-back wins after dropping four straight. Look for Michael Vick to go for some long scampers Saturday on the fast Georgia Dome carpet. So far this year, he's run for an average of 10.1 yards per attempt at home. That compares to 7.0 on the road. -JB

The Jets' playoff hopes were dealt a painful blow on Sunday. Their 31-13 loss to the Bills put them into a three-way tie for seventh in the AFC. A loss in Minnesota would likely end any playoff aspirations for Eric Mangini's crew, so quarterback Chad Pennington will need to regain his early-season form. After posting a 90-plus passer rating in six of his first seven games, the 30-year-old has struggled, throwing nine interceptions in his last six outings. Don't expect the Jets to do much on the ground, either; the Vikings are surrendering a league-best 54 rushing yards per contest. The next best is Baltimore at 80.3. - JB

If the Ravens put in half an effort against the Browns, the NFC North should be tied up before this one reaches the second half. Baltimore is playing at home, where it is 5-1 against the spread. The one encouraging factor for the Browns is that they were able to play tough defense against the Ravens in Week 3, holding them to three points over three quarters before the Ravens' offense pulled out the 15-14 win in the fourth. -CR

After being burned in overtime by hometown hero Vince Young, the Texans may be able to resuscitate their dying popularity in Houston if they can upset the Patriots. Sure, it sounds far-fetched, but Tom Brady and the Pats looked awful laying a goose egg against Miami last weekend, the first time they’ve been shutout since 2003. Not counting the 35-0 blowout of Green Bay in which he was very good, Brady has thrown two TDs versus eight interceptions in five games. -CR

Expect these 6-7 squads to lay everything on the line as both still have an outside shot at an AFC wild card spot. Despite shutting out the Patriots last weekend, the Dolphins may have a tougher test with Buffalo. The Bills have covered six straight since the beginning of November and five in a row against Miami dating to 2004. Interesting comparison: Buffalo quarterback J.P. Losman is 27-40 with 15 TDs and no INTs in the red-zone. Miami's Joey Harrington is 28-57 with 16 TDs and five picks. -CR

How many pegged this one as a Super Bowl preview during the pre-season? It’s been nothing but disappointment since then. Both are holding onto fading playoff chances with sub-.500 records and only three weeks remaining. Panther fans still hoping to sneak an NFC wild card spot will have to pray QB Jake Delhomme can return from a thumb injury that sidelined him in Week 14. Backup Chris Weinke is 1-16 as a starter and threw three costly interceptions in Sunday's loss to the Giants. -CR

Drew Brees is making a strong push for MVP and his play has the Saints in contention for the Super Bowl. As Reggie Bush continues to mature into the elite play-maker everyone thinks he’ll be, New Orleans starts to become more than a feel-good story. When they’re on, the Saints are as explosive as any team, including Brees’ former club, the AFC-leading Chargers. If they are a serious threat to win it all, they’ll have to make fast work of bad teams like the Redskins. And if you think the spread seems a little high, consider this: The 'Skins have lost five games by double-digits in 2006, and four of them came on the road. -AB

A meeting between the two best teams in the AFC South? The way these two teams have succeeded recently, making the case isn’t hard. They’ve both beaten the suddenly slumping Colts during the past two weeks and are among the hottest teams in the league. It’s difficult to pick a winner – straight up or against the spread – in this tilt, but it’s easy to decide who to root for: Vince Young, your fan club grows. -AB

The only outcome that seems to be in question with this one concerns the point spread. Chicago should win and if Rex Grossman plays the way he did on Monday night, the game shouldn’t be close. The Bears have routinely steamrolled the NFL’s weakest teams – except for that near disaster against the Cards on Monday night. Expect another blowout as the Bears, who’ve already clinched a first-round bye, aim to stay perfect against the NFC. The Bucs have lost six of their last seven, all by double-digits. -AB

Brett Favre is always a reason to watch, but even more so now that his days playing at Lambeau Field could be winding down. He should give the Cheeseheads a treat, lighting up the poor Lions like he did the beleaguered 49ers last week. An interesting, though not altogether surprising, stat: The Packers are 5-1 in 2006 when Favre plays a full game and doesn't throw an interception. The Lions have eight picks on the year, third-fewest in the NFL. -AB

Nobody thought it would be happening, yet here we are: Matt Leinart vs. Jay Cutler, starting QBs in Week 15 of their respective rookie seasons. With the Broncos slip-sliding away from playoff contention, a win against the Cardinals is a must to stay afloat in the hyper-competitive AFC West. But Denver will be hard-pressed against an Arizona squad that's looked good in recent weeks, especially in its 27-21 upset victory over division-leading Seattle this past Sunday. Winners of two straight, the Cards have also covered four in a row. -MH

A classic NFC East rivalry is renewed in Gotham this weekend, as two teams desperately fighting for a wild card berth square off. Both Philly and New York are coming off big Week 14 wins - the Eagles knocked off the Redskins thanks in large part to the rejuvenation machine that is Jeff Garcia, while the Giants KO'ed Carolina, putting the Panthers in their rear view in the playoff chase. With Dallas faltering against New Orleans last week, this division is once again up for grabs - look for this to be one of the best games of the weekend. -MH

Zzzzzz....Feel free to hit the snooze button on this one. After a bright start to the season, the Rams have sputtered to the finish (they've lost seven of their last eight) and have played themselves out of playoff contention. They'll be going up against a Raiders team that is staunch on defense, and stinky on offense. Having not scored more than 14 points in any game over the last month and a bit, Oakland has gone under in four of its last five despite some pretty low totals. If you like the Raiders as slight home favorites, be sure to read Bodog Nation's weekly NFL betting trends article. Two words: correlated parlay. -MH

Another mouth-watering Week 15 matchup, this one could go a long way in establishing the final standings in the AFC West. The Chiefs need to get their house in order, and fast - after jumping out to a 7-4 start, K.C. has lost two straight and has been torched in the air doing so. Both Cleveland and Baltimore rung up over 280 passing yards against the Chiefs the past two Sundays, with Baltimore doing a number on defense as well, registering two interceptions, five sacks and a forced fumble against a beleaguered Trent Green. That's an ominous stat package given that linebacker extraordinaire, Shawne "Lights Out" Merriman, is coming to town. -MH

PHOTO: Bengals running back Rudi Johnson could be in for a big night against the Colts. (AP Photo)

Note: All NFL lines subject to change.

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