Bodog NFL Week 11 Picks

Their 49-41 shock win represented the club's highest point total in 20 years.

LaDainian Tomlinson scored four touchdowns and ran for 104 yards in the effort while Philip Rivers completed 24 of 36 pass attempts for 338 yards and three scores.

With stats like that, you'd think the Chargers would be a confident bunch heading into Denver to play the team they find themselves tied with atop the AFC West, but the Broncos have dominated in recent matchups. San Diego has lost six straight in Denver, and Tomlinson has yet to break the 75-yard mark in five visits. Last year, in Week 2, he was held to 52 yards on 19 carries and the Broncos rallied from a 14-3 deficit to win 20-17.

A history of success combined with Denver's fifth-best rushing defense, which is surrendering just 86.2 yards per game, are reasons to believe it will be the young Rivers who will determine the effectiveness of the Charger attack.

Rivers has certainly made fans forget about Drew Brees. His 100.4 passer rating is fifth-best in the league, and three of the quarterbacks above him - Charlie Batch (136.8), Sage Rosenfels (103.0) and Tony Romo (101.2) - have seen significantly less action. Only Peyton Manning (104.5) has played as many games as the first-year starter out of NC State.

Speaking of Manning, his Indianapolis Colts were the last visitors to INVESCO Field. They beat the Broncos 34-31, thanks in large part to their quarterback's brilliance. Manning went 32-for-39 for 345 yards and three touchdowns, bending and then breaking Denver's 27th-ranked pass defense.

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Compiled by Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

Trent Green will start for the first time since going down with a severe concussion in Week 1. Kansas City's two-time Pro Bowler might be returning just in time. Career backup Damon Huard kept the Chiefs in the playoff hunt but was ineffective in last week's loss in Miami. As for the Raiders, a terrible offense combined with a stingy D has resulted in five straight games going under the total. - JB

We discussed earlier in the week how the total couldn’t be high enough for this contest. Two explosive offenses teamed with a pair of suspect defenses? Hell, they might combine for 50 points before halftime. Something to watch will be how New Orleans defends the long pass. The Saints gave up touchdown passes of 37 and 38 yards to Ben Roethlisberger last Sunday. This week, they’ll be matched up against Carson Palmer, who had touchdown passes of 51 and 74 yards against the Chargers. All signs point to a shootout at the Superdome – over bettors, pay attention. - MH

Who would’ve guessed that, in Week 11, Pittsburgh and Cleveland would be playing a game to decide who moves to the bottom of the AFC North? Cleveland is still bitter over the 41-0 drubbing the Steelers laid on them last Christmas Eve at Browns Stadium – the blowout victory improved Pittsburgh’s record to 12-3 versus Cleveland since 1999. Yes, the Browns have been the perennial whipping boy in the rivalry, but their solid record against the spread (5-3-1) and solid play as of late (winners of two of their last three) makes them an intriguing play as a home dog. -MH

Jamaal Jackson, beware. The Eagles' center will have to keep his head on a swivel (and a helmet on his head) as Albert Haynesworth makes his return from his five-game suspension. Aside from a possible head-stomp, there are several trends to follow. Tennessee is 1-4 away from home, and has only mustered 12.4 points per game in those contests. Facing off against a staunch Philly defense that has only allowed 16 points in its last two games, Vince Young and the Titans could be in for a difficult afternoon – the Eagles are fourth in the NFL with 26 sacks this season. - MH

The Ravens will look to match their longest winning streak of the season Sunday, taking on a Falcons team that is in disarray after dropping consecutive games to Detroit and Cleveland. Shouldering much of the responsibility is Michael Vick, who committed six turnovers in those two losses and has once again come under fire for his flimsy ball-handling and erratic passing. Facing a Baltimore defense that has racked up nine turnovers and three touchdowns during this most recent win streak, Vick will have to play mistake-free football for Atlanta to be successful. Good luck with that. - MH

Last week, thanks to a big win on Monday Night Football combined with the Saints losing, the team many pegged as the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl got back in the hunt for the NFC South title. However, averaging a stagnant 17.9 points, the Panthers will need to lower the drops on offense to contend with Rams quarterback Marc Bulger. Under his leadership this season, St. Louis is averaging 257.9 yards per game through the air and 22.4 points. - CR

The Texans looked great in Week 10 against the Jaguars, which makes them an easy pick at home against the forever-rebuilding Bills, right? Not so fast. The only wins by the Texans are a season sweep of the Jags and a Week 5 triumph over the Dolphins (who were being led by a gimpy Daunte Culpepper at the time). The Bills have lost four of their last five, but the Texans are inconsistent and shouldn't be considered a lock. - CR

Week 11 in the NFL - did you think we'd be talking about the rise of the Packers and the freefall of the Patriots? Oddsmakers still opened the Pack as home dogs, but you can't help but feel that Brett Favre is planning on kicking a slumping contender now that Tom Brady and Co. appear to be so down. - CR

Jason Campbell versus Bruce Gradkowski...not exactly Manning versus Brady. But with the defenses involved, one of these two young starters will probably have a big day. Washington is the second-worst passing defense (giving up 240.3 per contest) in the league, while teams are completing 63.3 percent of their passes against Tampa Bay, the fifth-highest total in the NFL. - CR

In a scheduling oddity, the Bears get to play back-to-back road games in the same stadium. They beat the undermanned Giants handily last week and look to complete the sweep of Gotham by pounding the overachieving Jets on Sunday. New York comes off a surprising win over the Patriots, proving they're capable of beating anyone, and don't forget they nearly knocked off the Colts earlier in the year. An outright win isn't beyond reason. - AB

The Dolphins go for three straight after beating the Bears and Chiefs. You might figure they'd have an easy time with struggling Minnesota, but it is the NFL - parity reigns. One thing that does seem certain, Miami will throw on the Vikings, whose pass defense ranks 26th. That strategy could lead to a big game for Chris Chambers, or a few interceptions for Joey Harrington. - AB

When will the misery end for Matt Leinart? Could the former Heisman winner earn his first pro win against the pathetic Lions? Detroit has been the cure-all for many opposing teams' ills, so there is a reason the Cardinals should be favored. There's also a reason to watch. With the talent on offense for both teams and the lack of it on D, this could be a shootout in the desert. - AB

Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck are practicing this week, but they still may not play. If either does suit up, the Seahawks may actually start to resemble a team that is the defending NFC champion. If it's Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris in the backfield, watch out. The young 49ers have shown they've got game. - AB

Peyton Manning (104.5) and Tony Romo (101.2) are 1-2 in the NFL in passer ratings. But that could be an inconsequential stat for the latter this weekend – expect Cowboys RBs Julius Jones and Marion Barber to shoulder a yeoman’s share of work in the hopes of exploiting the worst run defense in the league. Dallas will milk the clock in the hopes of keeping the unstoppable force that is Manning off the field – and quietly pray that the Colts aren’t as dominant as their 9-0 record indicates. Reasons to believe? Of those nine wins, only two were by more than seven points, and four wins were by three points or less. - MH

This game could be the most competitive of the week outside of San Diego-Denver. Both teams come off losses at home and both are competing for the playoffs. While the Giants are banged up on defense, they're still a lot more effective on offense than Jacksonville. David Garrard lost his first game as a pro last week, and it came at home against the Houston Texans. Not the way you earn the respect the Jags have been clamoring for the past two years. - AB

PHOTO: Philip Rivers has enjoyed a spectacular debut in San Diego. (AP Photo)

Note: All NFL lines subject to change.

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