Bodog Week 10 Football Betting

It seems like only yesterday the Miami Dolphins were being touted as Super Bowl contenders. A six-game win streak to cap off 2005 combined with the offseason addition of Daunte Culpepper had many experts calling for a new king of the AFC East.

Riiiight.

Halfway through the 2006 regular season, the theme appears to be, "The more things change, the more they stay the same."

The Colts are still the best, until the playoffs start.

The Patriots have managed just fine without (insert players here).

The Cardinals suck, like always.

Not to say there haven't been exceptions to the same-old-same-old. Nobody foresaw the Pittsburgh Steelers at 2-6. Nor the New Orleans Saints at 6-2.

But all of the above has been analyzed and re-analyzed and then scrutinized for good measure. What about some of the more understated betting stories from the first half of the season? You know, the ones that made sharps rich and books go shhhhh.

Home Has Never Looked So Good

It's no surprise home teams have won more than they've lost, to the tune of 78-49 straight up. But it seems oddsmakers have underestimated just how big an advantage the 12th man can be. Home teams are 70-56-1 against the spread, with much of the damage being done by the oft-championed (though oft-ignored) home underdogs.

In the last four weeks, home dogs are 14-5 ATS and 12-7 straight up. Attention all moneyline players!

Week 10 offers a whole new slate of opportunities to ride the trend. Starting in Miami, the Dolphins can build on their big win over Chicago as 1.5-point home dogs to the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that's been living off the spectacular running of Larry Johnson. The Dolphins' D, though, is allowing a very respectable 3.4 yards per rushing attempt.

Also on tap, the desperate Bengals are 1.5-point underdogs in Cincinnati to the Shawne Merriman-less Chargers, the Titans are getting a touchdown to Baltimore, the Cardinals are getting the same against visiting Dallas, and the Raiders are expected to lose to the Broncos by nine.

J-E-T-S Spells Over

What do you get when a surprisingly improved offense meets a worse-than-expected defense? Answer, the New York Jets. (Better answer, a great over play.)

Prior to the 2006 season, Jets quarterback Chad Pennington was a long shot to recover from yet another torn rotator cuff. His injured right shoulder had limited him to three games in 2005. Going into training camp, head coach Eric Mangini was still uncertain who his starter would be.

But Pennington proved his detractors wrong right from Week 1. He threw six TDs and just two picks in his first four games as his team jumped out to a surprising 2-2 start. Both losses, to New England and Indianapolis, were decided by a touchdown or less.

Unfortunately for Jets fans, the once imposing New York defense - seventh best in 2004 and 12th in 2005 - has continued its downward trend. Currently ranked 31st, it's been ripped for 24.1 points per game.

It all added up to a seven-game over streak to kick off the season. In Week 8, thanks to a 20-13 loss at Cleveland, the Jets finally went under. The total was set at 37.

On Sunday, the Jets travel to New England to play a Patriots team that's scored at least 20 points in five straight games. On a board with eight totals set at 40 or more, this one stands at 39.5.

Texan Turnaround

After a 1-4 start - with all four losses coming by at least 14 points - there was no reason whatsoever to believe in the Houston Texans. Sure, quarterback David Carr was having a good year statistically, but with a defense that was surrendering nearly 30 points per game, even Peyton Manning would have trouble leading this sad-sack bunch to victory.

But a funny thing happened on the way to another top draft pick: The Texans started playing some D. Led by last year's No. 1 pick Mario Williams and his team-best 4.5 sacks, Houston has held three straight opponents - the Jaguars, Titans and Giants - to less than 300 total yards of offense.

In Week 10, Houston travels to Jacksonville to play the team it beat 27-7 at Reliant Stadium in Week 7. Save for the aforementioned debacle, the Jags have been playing some great football. Still, the 10.5-point line might offer value on the dog. Houston is 4-1 against the spread in its last five meetings with its AFC South rival.

TOP PHOTO: Chad Pennington returned to form in the first half of the season and made the Jets a smart over play. (AP photo)

Note: All NFL lines subject to change.

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