Bodog Thanksgiving NFL Picks

For most NFLers, this revered staple of Turkey Day - it's right up there with cranberry sauce, pumpkin pie and Pepto-Bismol - is nothing more than a scheduling nightmare.

Just ask Jon Gruden. The Tampa Bay head coach is in the midst of a stretch that will see his team play three games in 11 days. It began well with a win over Washington this past Sunday.

"Now comes the Dallas Cowboys, who the last time I checked are pretty good - and they're multiple,'' Gruden told the Orlando Sentinel. "They run a 3-4 [defense] that's completely different than what we saw [Sunday]. And we have one day to get a crash course for it all. I mean, Jimminy Christmas!''.

While he got his holiday reference wrong, Gruden pretty much nailed the rest of it. The Dallas Cowboys do run a pretty intimidating 3-4 defense - for further evidence of this claim, go talk to Peyton Manning. The Dallas front seven repeatedly harassed Indy's prodigious passer Sunday afternoon, forcing a fumble and intercepting two passes, one of which was returned for a touchdown.

Dallas might just be the hottest team in football. Winners of four of their last six, the Cowboys have done it with a stingy defense and a powerful offense sparked by Tony Romo. Much has been written about the NFL's second highest-rated passer, and nearly all of the praise is deserved. His 3-1 record as a starter includes Sunday's massive win against the previously undefeated Colts - a game where he completed his final nine passes and went the entire second half without getting sacked.

Another factor come Thursday will be Thanksgiving experience - the Cowboys are 23-14-1 all time on Turkey Day, while the Bucs are making their day-of-thanks debut.

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The Turkey Bowl

The early Thanksgiving game features two of the season's more disappointing teams battling for nothing but pride, something that both sets of fans have gone without for some time now.

The Detroit Lions have not come into their annual holiday game with a winning record since 2000. That was the year they beat the New England Patriots 34-9 to improve to 8-4. Granted, it was hardly a good omen. Following the win, Detroit went on to lose three of its last four to miss the postseason. Even worse, they lost 67 of their next 90 from 2001 to the present. For Lions fans in the 21st century, about the only thing they can be thankful for is Prozac.

Meanwhile, in Miami, the Dolphins are making their second consecutive late-season charge with absolutely no chance at making the playoffs. After starting 1-6 (0-7 against the spread), the Fins have rattled off three consecutive victories straight up and ATS. For that reason, they have the dubious honor of being favored over the Lions, who have failed to cover three of their last four.

If there's a story worth telling here, it's that of Miami quarterback Joey Harrington. In 2002, Harrington was drafted in the first round, third overall, by the Lions. Unfortunately, his stellar college career at Oregon did not translate into professional success. That's to say the least. Harrington completed no more than 57 percent of his passes over four years in Motor City. His touchdown-to-interception ratio was a morbid 60-to-62.

Now starting with Miami, thanks to the injury to Daunte Culpepper, Harrington's numbers remain subpar. His 67.5 passer rating is among the worst in the NFL. Still, there have been signs of improvement. On Sunday against Minnesota, Harrington completed 11 of 12 first-quarter passes. At halftime, he boasted a QB rating of 113.1. Sure, he cooled off in the second half, but the Dolphins won the game, and that says more than any fancy statistic could.

Despite the departure of Harrington, poor decision-making by the quarterback remains a concern in Detroit. Jon Kitna has thrown 12 interceptions to just 11 scores in 2006. That's good news for the sixth-ranked Dolphins' pass defense, led by DE Jason Taylor, who has returned two picks for scores in his last three games. Taylor's 51-yard interception return TD on Sunday was the second defensive score for Miami, the other being Renaldo Hill's 48-yard fumble return.

And For Dessert...

Who can run the rock, who can control the clock? The team that best answers those questions will likely find victory in this battle of AFC West rivals.

In their Week 2 matchup, which Denver won in overtime on a 39-yard Jason Elam field goal, both teams ran more than passed. Don’t expect their gameplans to change.

Although Kansas City and Denver rely on the run, they execute on offense in different ways. The Chiefs have leaned heavily on every-down running back Larry Johnson and are 5-1 against the spread when he tops 100 yards. Meanwhile, the Broncos will insert any back that fits coach Mike Shanahan’s mood, whether it be Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, or even Damien Nash – a player who was cut from the Tennessee Titans’ practice squad in preseason.

With only four days of rest for both teams, Shanahan’s back-by-committee has the obvious advantage. Johnson’s 31 carries versus Oakland last Sunday may factor into his performance when the teams play Thursday night in the first Thanksgiving Day triple-header.

Plus, the Denver defense will be motivated to bring the “Orange Crush” on Johnson - one of only three backs to crack the century mark against the Broncos' defense this year.

TOP PHOTO: Tony Romo has been a big key to the Cowboys' recent success. (AP Photo)

Note: All NFL lines subject to change.

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