Bodog NCAA BCS Previews

Whether or not you despise the process of elimination and evaluation, feel the need for a playoff system, or are enrolled in courses near Ann Arbor, the BCS got the national title game right for the second year in a row. The No. 2 Florida Gators, not Michigan, should be facing the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes in Glendale, Arizona on Jan. 8, 2007.

"They had their shot,” Florida coach Urban Meyer explained to ESPN when asked about Michigan's national title snub.

"I do believe we deserve a shot, and I believe the country should feel the same way. I think a conference champion should have a chance to play for a national championship."

When the USC Trojans (ranked No. 2 at the time) lost their offensive mojo and were upset 13-9 to unranked UCLA, fans of the maize and blue defiantly awaited their rematch with the top-ranked Buckeyes. After all, the Wolverines had given the Buckeyes a run for their BCS money, losing by only three points (42-39) despite opening as 7-point underdogs on the road.

But, surprisingly when it came time for the pivotal vote, the BCS process took on the philosophy of its pro-football cousins: It’s not about who wins the most (or best), but who wins when it counts.

"Michigan had its shot," said Harris Poll voter Joe Biddle of The Tennessean. "If you replayed that game it would be nothing more than a Big Ten championship, and I don't think you get mulligans in college football.”

Michigan made highlight reels of every opponent before Ohio State, including a 47-21 blowout of Notre Dame (Notre Dame was a 5.5-point favorite and ranked No. 2 at the time). However, Michigan's final game against the Buckeyes had the implications and intensity of the NFL's AFC championship, and like pro-football, it was win or go home. Or, in this case, go to Pasadena.

"Because there's not a playoff, I think a conference champion ought to carry more weight than a conference runner-up at the BCS conference level," said Harris voter Ray Melick of The Birmingham News. "At the end of the day, Florida won its conference championship. Michigan did not."

Florida suffered its one loss in Week 7 against then No. 11 Auburn, but proceeded to win its last six in a row (four of those being conference wins). The Gators closed out their successful season with a 38-28 win over No. 8 Arkansas. The win gave them the SEC championship in arguably the toughest conference in college football.

"In my heart of hearts, I believe that neither Ohio State or Michigan could get through Florida's schedule with only one loss," said Tom Lucci, a Harris voter who made the change to Florida at number two.

"Michigan has quality wins over Wisconsin, which played no one, and Notre Dame, which won the Commander's-in-Chief trophy (a reference to wins over the service academies) which I don't consider a major coup."

In the end, when all the stats and votes are added up, the BCS system will always equal controversy. But there have been instances – albeit very few - where the BCS has been accurate in choosing the teams deserving of 1 and 2. This appears to be one of them.

"Florida belongs," Meyer said. "The country wants to see the Southeast Conference champion against a Big Ten champion."

BEST (AND WORST) OF THE 2006-07 BCS

Best Game: BCS Championship Game

Don't be fooled by the talk of an Ohio State squashing that will mirror USC's 55-19 blowout of Oklahoma in the 2005 Orange Bowl; this game could be much closer than you think, despite the touchdown-plus spread most oddsmakers have in place.

Urban Meyer has a whole month to find ways to confuse the young Buckeyes' defense with his quarterback combo of Chris Leak and freshman Tim Tebow.

Chris Leak has brought the offense a steady passing attack with 210 yards per game, while Tebow seemingly doubles as a short yardage fullback. Their versatility at the position is guaranteed to bring the kind of trickery that Ohio State hasn't seen from any opponent this year.

Also, this will be the first time Buckeyes QB Troy Smith faces an SEC defense. Florida has held opponents to 13.5 points per game and ranks seventh in interceptions with 20.

Most Intense: The Rose Bowl

These two teams are ticked off, so look for that anger to carry over onto the football field.

USC coach Pete Carroll is looking to reestablish his Trojan dynasty after suffering an unfathomable 13-9 loss to UCLA. The Wolverines are fired up after the BCS took away their shot at a national title.

With the Rose Bowl going down in California, the easy evaluation would be that the Trojans have the advantage. But with Michigan coach Lloyd Carr out to prove his team is the definitive BCS No. 2 - plus the fact his squad is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games -the Wolverines will be ready to match the crowd’s intensity in Pasadena.

This one opened at Michigan (-1.5) but might just reach pick 'em status by kick-off.

Most Likely Blowout: The Sugar Bowl

Separate yourself from the "Brady Quinn is the prototype pro QB" talk and all you have is an inconsistent offense and a struggling defense in Notre Dame.

When pressure has been laid on the porous O-line, Quinn and his offense have struggled mightily. UCLA almost pulled off an upset as 12.5-point underdogs by rushing Quinn and sacking him five times. The Irish ended up squeaking out a 20-17 victory.

On defense, they've allowed 22.4 points per game, including 26 from an offensively challenged North Carolina side.

With LSU's offense scoring 33.1 points per game, its defense ranking fourth in the nation and the Sugar Bowl being played in the Tigers' back yard, another blowout could close out Notre Dame’s season.

Early betting has been on LSU, moving the spread in favor of the Tigers from seven up to as high as nine.

Upset Special: The Fiesta Bowl

Don't be fooled by the bright blue turf at Bronco Stadium, Boise State is no gimmick. With "something to prove" embedded into a Bronco team coming out of the Western Athletic Conference, and an offense that has gone over the total in five of its last seven, Boise State will come hard and fast at the Sooners.

The Sooners should have superstar RB Adrian Peterson back in the lineup but producing solid rushing yards could prove hard to come by. The Bronco defense gives up only 82.3 yards per game and has allowed only five rushing touchdowns all season.

Oddsmakers like the Sooners by at least a touchdown, but the question is, how much of the number is based on reputation alone?

Worst Matchup: The Orange Bowl

No, this is not a March Madness matchup; this is the Orange Bowl. And with the ACC and Big East involved it's likely to be one of the worst Orange Bowls to date.

The ACC has seen its powerhouse teams like Miami and Florida State fall from grace in 2006, allowing a less talented team like Wake Forest to go 8-2 against the spread in conference play and secure its first ACC championship in 36 years.

Meanwhile, Louisville took advantage of a conference that has only No. 16 Rutgers and No. 13 West Virginia as worthy opponents.

Bettors aren't so sure this one will turn into the blowout the early line suggested. Opening at Louisville (-11), most books now have 9.5 or 10 on the board.

TOP PHOTO: It took some luck, but Florida coach Urban Meyer got his Gators in the BCS Championship Game. (AP photo)

Note: All NCAA football lines subject to change.

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