Free Week 16 NFL Expert Picks

By Jeff Wilson: Week 16 has four selections, plus another two that just missed the cut. There is a full schedule on tap this week although there will not be a Sunday night game due to Christmas Eve. Instead, the NFL brings you two Monday night games.

Editor’s Note: The selections in this column are purely the opinion of the writer, and are not being endorsed by any parties.

Games Considered But Not Picked

Minnesota (-3.5) at Green Bay:

Considered picking Green Bay: This is a battle of two 6-8 teams on Thursday Night Football. Minnesota has squandered a promising 4-2 start to the season, and they are throwing up the white flag by starting rookie quarterback, Tarvaris Jackson this week. Jackson looked pretty good at home last week as a substitute, but this will be the first start for the Alabama State product.

Green Bay has not played well at home this year, 2-5 at Lambeau Field even after beating the Lions last week. Still, the fans will be into this night contest, and we all know that Brett Favre takes every game seriously, even the ones in his backyard. His team gets the nod over the very raw rookie in Jackson.

Chicago (-4.5) at Detroit:

Considered picking Chicago: This is only a 4.5 point spread (instead of double digits) because Chicago (12-2) has clinched home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. There is a good chance that the Bears decide to rest some of their starters, especially in the second half.

The good part about the Bears though is that their backups might be better than their starters in two key positions. Quarterback Brian Griese and running back Cedric Benson are both chomping at the bit to play more, and they should still have their way against a Lions (2-12) team fighting for the top pick in the draft.

Week 16 Selections

New Orleans (-3) at NY Giants:

New Orleans (9-5) gagged big-time in their home loss to Washington last week. It is a disturbing trend that has seen the Saints lose three out of their last four home games. On the road, it has been a different story as they are 5-2 overall, and played very well in recent wins over Atlanta and Dallas.

Everyone is expecting New York (7-7) to start playing up to their talent level. I am included in that group as it was thought the Giants would handle Philadelphia by a touchdown last week. Instead, the Giants lost at home, and now they are giving points to a team playing better overall football. That is too risky.

NFL Free Expert Pick: New Orleans

Indianapolis (-9) at Houston:

Indianapolis (11-3) is coming off a big win over Cincinnati, while Houston is rebounding from a 33 point loss at New England. The Colts need to keep winning in the hopes of earning the second seed in the AFC. The Texans (4-10) are busy figuring out if they should draft a quarterback or running back come this April.

Everyone knows that Indianapolis can’t stop the run as they have the 32nd ranked run defense in the NFL. Fortunately for the Colts, Houston can not run the ball with Ron Dayne and company, having the 24th ranked run offense. Indianapolis should pile up the points against their division rival, making for an easy double digit win.

NFL Free Expert Pick: Indianapolis

Cincinnati (-3) at Denver:

Denver (8-6) had an impressive win at Arizona last week. Coach Mike Shanahan is breathing a sigh of relief after watching his rookie quarterback, Jay Cutler throw for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, it was the Cardinals so it has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it gives the team a big boost of confidence.

Cincinnati (8-6) had their four game winning streak snapped with a Monday night loss at Indianapolis. It was a pretty good beating (34-16), but I chalk it up to a great performance by Peyton Manning. In this game, I’ll take Carson Palmer and the points over a rookie quarterback any day, even on the road.

NFL Free Expert Pick: Cincinnati

Arizona (+4) at San Francisco:

Arizona is 4-10 overall and 1-5 on the road. The Cardinals did just have a nice mini-streak, winning three of four before losing to Denver last week. With just two weeks remaining, and the Dennis Green firing rumors starting again in earnest, this will be a difficult game to be focused for.

San Francisco (6-8) is riding high after their win at Seattle last week. The 49ers know they are in the playoffs if they win-out, and Seattle loses-out. With Seattle playing San Diego starting at the same time this week (4:00 p.m. EST), San Francisco will be motivated to make a statement in this game.

NFL Free Expert Pick: San Francisco

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