Free Week 14 NFL Expert Picks

By Jeff Wilson: Week 14 has four selections, plus another three games that just missed the cut. We are getting into the home stretch and motivation is playing a bigger part in the spreads as a lot of teams are officially fighting for their playoff lives.

Editor’s Note: The selections in this column are purely the opinion of the writer, and are not being endorsed by any parties.

Games Considered But Not Picked

New England (-3.5) at Miami:

Considered picking New England: New England (9-3) is 5-0 away from home and their average margin of victory in their last four road games is 26.5 points. They are also 5-0 against the spread (ATS) on the road, playing much better there than at home.

Miami is 5-7 and out of the playoff race. Running back, Ronnie Brown is not playing again this week, and Bill Belichick’s defense should be able to get a couple of picks off of an overused Joey Harrington. The Dolphins are known to play well against the Patriots, but the Pats should still win by a touchdown.

Seattle (-3.5) at Arizona:

Considered picking Arizona: Seattle (8-4) beat Denver last Sunday night, but it was due more to Denver’s miscues, than Seattle’s good play. Matt Hasselbeck’s knee does not look 100% healthy right now, and there is no explosiveness to the Seahawk’s offense.

Arizona (3-9) has played much better the last three weeks, getting two wins straight up and going 3-0 ATS. Quarterback, Matt Leinart is playing very poised and he will have success against the Seattle secondary. The running game is also picking it up a bit. The Cardinals have a good chance at an outright win.

Denver (+7.5) at San Diego:

Considered picking San Diego: Denver (7-5) needs a win to stay in the Wild Card race, but did Coach Mike Shanahan send a signal to his team that they are playing for 2007 by inserting rookie Jay Cutler in the line-up? Cutler looked lost for most of last week against Seattle, and this is his first ever road start.

San Diego (10-2) has designs on home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Running back, LaDainian Tomlinson is on an incredible pace as of late, and if Denver linebacker Al Wilson can not go, Tomlinson should have another big day. San Diego should win this game by double digits.

Week 14 Selections

Buffalo (+3.5) at NY Jets:

Buffalo is 5-7 and they played admirably in a loss to San Diego last week. That being said, the Bills are just 2-4 on the road this year, and one of those was a last-second win at Houston. They could also have a letdown knowing they are out of the playoff hunt.

New York (7-5) has had a surprise season and they do not want it to end anytime soon. The Jets are among a handful of teams alive for a Wild Card berth, and they must get this game before heading to Minnesota and Miami. New York seems to be peaking now, and it should continue for at least another week.

NFL Free Expert Pick: NY Jets

NY Giants (+3) at Carolina:

Both of these teams are 6-6, which is not that bad in the NFC. The Giants have lost four straight games, while Carolina has dropped two straight on the road, to Washington and Philadelphia. Still, the winner of this contest has a very good chance of making the playoffs.

The Carolina offense did show signs of life in the Philly game, but it was the defense that unexpectedly let them down.

The Giants’ offense also played better last week against Dallas, and they should be able to match points with this low scoring Carolina team, even on the road. Taking a field goal is the play.

NFL Free Expert Pick: NY Giants

Tennessee (+1.5) at Houston:

Houston is 4-8 after a win at Oakland. The Texans won that game with negative yards passing, and their running game is no great shakes either. Now, Houston returns home after an incredible stretch of six road games in eight weeks.

Tennessee is 5-7 on the year, but they are 5-2 in their last seven games, with wins over Indianapolis, the NY Giants and Philadelphia. The Titans and quarterback Vince Young are playing with a lot of confidence right now, and they are clearly the better team. I will take the points.

NFL Free Expert Pick: Tennessee

Atlanta (-3) at Tampa Bay:

Tampa Bay (3-9) has been awful on the road (0-6) but respectable at home (3-3). If they are to win this game, rookie quarterback Bruce Gradkowski has to pull himself together quickly as he has been awful the last two games (no touchdown passes and five interceptions).

Atlanta (6-6) kept themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race with a win at Washington last week. If they do not follow it up with a victory this week though, it might all be for naught. The Atlanta passing game is still not clicking on all cylinders and they will have to rely on the run game once again. Still, I’m giving the three.

NFL Free Expert Pick: Atlanta

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