STEELERS VS COLTS PREVIEW

Sunday, January 15, 2006, 1:00 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at Indianapolis Colts (14-2)

In one of the few Monday night games this season that actually pitted quality opponents, the Colts scored on the first play of the game and held the Steelers at bay to post a 26-7 win. Pittsburgh linebacker Joey Porter would have you believe the Colts didn't exactly earn that victory, but the fact is that Indy's defense stymied the Steelers' ground game while Edgerrin James rushed for 124 yards. Ben Roethlisberger was a little rusty in his first game back from a knee injury, throwing two picks, while Peyton Manning was his usual efficient self with 245 yards and two touchdowns.

Fast-forward seven weeks, and it's the Colts who'll have to shake off some rust after wrapping up home field in week 14 and falling short of perfection the following week. The Steelers rolled the Bengals last week and are looking to get physical with the Colts. The aforementioned Porter would have you believe this is all about power vs. finesse, muscle vs. mind… but didn't Indy's 14-2 run already address those charges?

When the Steelers have the ball: Pittsburgh is effective when they run the football. Not that Ben Roethlisberger can't throw, or that the Steelers' passing game should be overlooked, but you have to believe the game plan Sunday will be—as it almost always is against the Colts—to run the ball, control the clock, and keep Peyton Manning off the field. The Chargers held the ball for more than 34 minutes and rushed for 206 yards in their win over the Colts, and the Steelers intend to follow that same blueprint.

But while San Diego had LaDainian Tomlinson, the Steelers will use a thunder-and-lighting-and-more-thunder triumvirate of Willie Parker, Jerome Bettis, and Verron Haynes. That trio combined for 33 touches, 191 yards from scrimmage (136 rushing), and a pair of touchdowns in last week's win over the Bengals, but Cincy had struggled to stop the run all season. The Colts, thanks in no small part to the addition of Corey Simon to the defensive line, haven't had those problems. They held Pittsburgh's back to 65 yards on the ground in the earlier meeting and allowed just two 100-yard rushers all season. In fact, only two backs have scored on them in their past six games, and one of them is the NFL's all-time single-season record holder for touchdowns.

While that won't stop the Steelers from trying to run the ball, it's bound to have an impact on their effectiveness. Parker's speed is negated by the overall team quickness of the Indy defense, so don't bank on him posting big numbers. Bettis may end up getting more than goal line duty in what could be his NFL swan song, and you can expect him to go down swinging. If the Bus is able to get past Simon and into the Indy secondary, he'll get some thumping from Bob Sanders—but at that point he'll also have a head of steam and at least a five-yard game. It wouldn't be surprising to see Bettis get the bulk of the carries and churn out something in the 65-yard neighborhood—and, of course, he's undeniable at the stripe.

Since it's inevitable that Indy will score, at some point Roethlisberger will need to take some downfield chances. He threw for just 133 yards (his second-lowest total of the season) in the earlier meeting despite 26 attempts (his fourth-highest number of the year). Aside from a 35-yard completion to Cedrick Wilson in the fourth quarter and a 12-yarder to Hines Ward, every completion was less than 10 yards. Dink-and-dunk may keep Big Ben's completion percentage high, but if Indy gets up a touch it's going to make playing catch-up extremely difficult.

What Roethlisberger will need to deliver to give Pittsburgh a shot at winning this game is something much like he produced last week in Cincy, a stat line that has been quite common for him this season: 200 or so yards and a couple touchdowns. Given the team speed of the Colts defense and the fact that injured players like Cato June have had time to get healthy, however, that is a tall order to fill—especially on the road.

Whatever passing game the Steelers do cobble together, you can bet Ward will be right in the middle of it. Hines is unquestionably the Steelers' go-to guy; even though he had just two grabs last week, one was for a touchdown and he drew the bulk of the defensive attention. That's how Wilson got open for a pair of long gains against the Bengals. Antwaan Randle El also brings speed to the table, but again his impact is muted by the fact that most of Indy's defense can run with him. Tight end Heath Miller hasn't scored since Halloween; he caught four balls in the earlier meeting but accounted for just 26 yards.

Kicker Jeff Reed continues to be consistently accurate, and he's working on a string of eight straight makes. Plus, kicking in a dome never hurts. However, teams who try to match Indy's touchdowns with field goals often find themselves facing a double-digit deficit before they know what hit them.

When the Colts have the ball: What happens when you put your Lamborghini in storage, maybe take it out to drive to the store or to church on Sunday, but for the most part throw a tarp over it and forget about it for a couple months? How will your baby respond when you take it out on the freeway and hit the gas?

Odds are the engine will roar, the tires will screech, and you'll be doing 95 in the passing lane before you can say "Was that a State Trooper on the right?". And that's exactly what we expect to happen Sunday when Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, and Marvin Harrison get serious for the first time since losing to the Chargers back in week 15.

There is little question the Steelers, who stack up well athletically against the Chargers defense that caused Indy fits, will borrow liberally from the San Diego game plan of trying to get to Manning quickly while at the same time roughing up his receivers to throw off their timing.

Of course, that's probably what they were trying to do on the first play of the previous meeting, when Manning hit Marv for an 80-yard touchdown.

Manning has everything he's asked for stacked on his side of the ledger—home field, fast track, week off to rest—and it's extremely difficult seeing him put on a performance like, say, the choke-in-the-postseason Peyton Manning of a few years ago… or the choke-in-the-postseason Eli Manning we saw last week. The Chargers game snapped a string of eight consecutive outings with multiple touchdown passes, a span in which he averaged better than 270 passing yards per game. The 245 he dropped on the Steelers earlier this year is the most the Steelers have surrendered over their last eight games, so he doesn't feel the Steel Curtain, and the return of right tackle Ryan Diem should help fend off Pittsburgh's notorious blitzes—which only got to Peyton twice in the earlier meeting.

In other words, unless you're of the belief that Peyton is utterly incapable of coming through in a big game, there's no reason to think he fails to deliver this week.

The Steelers haven't indicated they'll shadow Harrison with Ike Taylor, which is an indication of how much they respect Reggie Wayne. Marv was the last opposing wideout to reach the century mark against the Steelers, as he rode that 80-yard TD to a 128-yard evening. But after Pittsburgh held Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to just eight catches combined last week, it wouldn't be surprising to see Manning look a little more frequently Brandon Stokley's way. Last week the Bengals' third receivers had an impact, as Chris Perry had the big 66-yard catch and Kevin Walter caught five balls, so after a relatively quiet regular season it may be time for Stokley's star turn. That said, don't discount either Harrison, who recorded five 100-yard efforts and seven touchdowns in the last seven games in which he played meaningful minutes, or Wayne, who led the Colts in catches this year. Manning makes sure everyone in his offense is happy, and there's no one better at identifying the best matchup and delivering the ball to that player.

If Stokley is getting more love, it will have a direct impact on Dallas Clark's stats. Seeing as the Steelers have been pretty good against tight ends—their worst effort at that position was against Antonio Gates, who managed 61 yards and a touchdown—it's likely that Manning will look away from Clark and Bryan Fletcher (who combined for five catches, 47 yards, and a touchdown in the earlier meeting) and more towards Stokley.

Mike Vanderjagt had about as subdued a 121-point season as a guy can have. He's still remarkably accurate (just two misses this year), and he's had ample time to rest the calf and groin injuries that have been bugging him all season long. As such, he's a solid bet for a Chuck Woolery (two and two), and maybe more.

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